11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 11, Titans at Texans
Published Saturday, November 21, 2009 at 08:00:00 PM
Each week, I chose one NFL game and use 11 different methods to predict an outcome. At the end of the year I tally it up and see which method was the most accurate. Then, hopefully, I can make some wild, swooping generalizations based on that small sample size.
Last week's Colts-Patriots game came down to the wire and, ultimately, the few of us who chose the Colts got the victory. It also put the most random method of the 11 -- my parents' dog, Laska -- in sole possession of first place.
This week's game is the Monday Night Football match-up of the Tennessee Titans (the ex-Houston Oilers) at the Houston Texans (the replacement Houston Oilers). The line is Texans -4.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up. (By the way, as I was typing I accidentally spelled Tennessee "Tennesee"... and one of the suggestions the spell check gave was "rottenness." I don't have any particular beef with the state of Tennessee -- never even been there -- I just thought that was funny.)
This list was published on Saturday, November 21, 2009 at 08:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, November 21, 2009 at 08:00:00 PM
Each week, I chose one NFL game and use 11 different methods to predict an outcome. At the end of the year I tally it up and see which method was the most accurate. Then, hopefully, I can make some wild, swooping generalizations based on that small sample size.
Last week's Colts-Patriots game came down to the wire and, ultimately, the few of us who chose the Colts got the victory. It also put the most random method of the 11 -- my parents' dog, Laska -- in sole possession of first place.
This week's game is the Monday Night Football match-up of the Tennessee Titans (the ex-Houston Oilers) at the Houston Texans (the replacement Houston Oilers). The line is Texans -4.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up. (By the way, as I was typing I accidentally spelled Tennessee "Tennesee"... and one of the suggestions the spell check gave was "rottenness." I don't have any particular beef with the state of Tennessee -- never even been there -- I just thought that was funny.)
Battle of the mascots. (4-6) I do a best-of-three battle between different representations of each teams' mascot to determine this winner.
In battle one it's the literal interpretation: A Greek mythological Titan against a Texan. And no matter how big and tough and invisible as Texans think they are... they're not supernatural beings. First round goes to the Titans.
Battle two are the Teen Titans (which, from what I can tell, is basically like the superhero version of Muppet Babies) versus a Texan plane. (Sorry. There aren't that many options for Texans.) The pick here are the superheroes... even while they struggle with teen issues, like Robin wondering why he can't take his eyes off teenage Aquaman, they still beat a man-made plane.
The Titans already have it locked up as we head into the third battle, TV shows. It's the short-lived NBC drama "Titans" -- which was supposed to be the "Dynasty" for the 21st century but instead just ate balls -- versus the old Western "The Texan." You know who stars in "The Texan"? Rory Calhoun! How can the NBC people possibly beat up on him with the way he stands on his hind legs?!
So the final battle goes to the Texans, but it's the too little, too late department; the pick is the Titans.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (6-4) He's picking the Titans. He doesn't give any explanation -- this week he used his picks column to complain about the Belichick decision to go for it on 4th down at the end of last week's Colts-Pats game. Second-guessing and yelling as loud as you can is the sports journalism of the 2000s.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (3-7) Here, I look at each team's popularity scores over the past 11 years, based on the results of an annual Harris poll. I figure out how much each team's rank has varied statistically. The thought: The less variance, the more loyal the fans... and therefore, the bigger "12th man" advantage.
The Texans don't go all the way back to 1998... but based on their years in existence, they've been as popular as 19th in the NFL and as unpopular as 31st. Basically, they're a mediocre expansion team, so they haven't developed anything even close to a loyal fan base. Overall, their statistical variance is 19.9, good for 17th place overall in the NFL.
The Titans have had a weird 11 years... some good teams, some bad ones, mostly ones that inspire indifference. They've ranked as low as 31st most popular in the NFL and as high as 14th. Overall, their variance is 37.19, good for 28th in the NFL. Their fans are only less fair-weather than four other teams.
So, believe it or not, the pick is the Texans. - Madden 10 simulation. (4-6) I use Madden 10 (or, more accurately, my friend John uses Madden 10 on my behalf) to simulate the game, using up-to-the-second rosters. This week, the Titans managed to withstand a fourth quarter charge by the Texans to hold on for a 28-20 victory. Chris Johnson "only" had 122 yards and two touchdowns.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (6-4) So this was a dilemma. When I went to simulate the game on Tecmo Super Bowl, I figured I'd just have the Oilers play the Oilers. It would be like that movie where Jet Li fights himself. But... I forgot that Tecmo doesn't let you have a team play against itself.
So after some searching for hacked Tecmo Super Bowl ROMs that might allow that -- which, sadly, don't exist -- I came up with an alternative plan. I simulated the Oilers versus the worst team in the came, the Colts, two times. The first time the Oilers represented the Titans; the second time they represented the Texans. Whichever Oilers team had a larger margin of victory would be the pick.
In game one, Warren Moon was dominant for the TitanOilers. He had 89 rushing yards, 250 passing yards and was responsible for all four touchdowns. (Including two to Drew Hill. You better believe I sang some "How Deep Is Your Love" after both of those.) The TitanOilers won, 28-10.
In game two, the TexanOilers didn't feel as dominant... yet, somehow, they won even bigger. Moon had three touchdown passes to Haywood Jeffries and the TexanOilers won it, 35-10. So the pick is the Texans.- More intelligent quarterback. (2-8) Before the NFL draft, every player takes an intelligence test called the Wonderlic. The quarterbacks' scores are always leaked. I figure that the smarter the quarterback, the better off his team is.
The Titans are starting Vince Young these days... and that's a bad thing. Because he made headlines with his abysmal Wonderlic performance back when he was coming out of Texas. Initial reports said he got a SIX out of 50 -- making him, basically, the equivalent of a polar bear -- but, after the dust cleared, it turned out he'd gotten a 16. Still abysmal, just not record-setting abysmal.
Matt Schaub on the Texans got a pretty strong 30 out of 50 when he came out of Virginia. So the pick is the Texans, by a lot. - My parents' dog. (7-3) For this pick, my parents put a biscuit on one side of the room representing one team, another biscuit on the other side of the room representing another team... then let the dog into the room and see which biscuit she goes for.
This week, they only had one biscuit left, so they broke it in half. The split wasn't even but they had to just roll with it, so the smaller piece represented the away team, the Titans, and the larger piece was the home team, the Texans.
Laska came into the room... and went for the smaller piece. So her pick is the Titans.
Accuscore. (6-4) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations to determine a winner. This week the Texans won in 57 percent of those simulation, so that's the computer pick.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (4-6) For this pick, I go through ESPN's message board about the game, to see what the brilliant minds of the Internet sports fan community are saying. I arrange some of the best comments as a debate, then determine a winner. For this week...
ThePieRatKing: for some reason I dont believe Tennessee will even break the 30 pts against the Texans... We held Indianapolis, who has a way better O than Tenn can hope for, to two tds... Houston will win this game and hopefully the next. two home games against division rivals I can't wait! I predict CJ has 132 yds and 1 td. Vy 1 td and 3 ints. As for whoever said with OD out all we have is Andre and schaub, i cant wait to see steve slaton screen all over your d, and our DEEP WR corps tear up your "improved" secondary!
I love that he starts with "for some reason." It's such an unnecessary hedge, especially when he goes on to give a bunch of reasons. Believe in yourself, Pie Rat King!671matt: hey all you texan's make sure your still talking smack after the game no matter what. texans fans , before you talk crap try finishing with a winning seasons . i guess ,when your use to having losing seasons then trash talking helps the pain and suffering.
Is Internet spelling/grammar/punctuation the modern equivalent of the Cockney accent?Stonewall879: Seriously, How does a team defend themselves after a 59-0 loss? I get that your secondary was injured, you guys have made that totally clear, but did you not have someone in their place? 59-0 is humiliating, and believe me when I say EVERYONE was laughing at your pathetic team!!!!
He's bringing up Tennessee's monumental loss to New England. That game came up a LOT on the message board.Munch63: How does a team defend themselves after NEVER having had a winning season in the history of their franchise? The Texans have barely won 37% of their games over seven and a half years, the whole "we're just an expansion team" excuse is getting old. Try to at least wait until you have a winning team before you go acting like the Texans are anything but a pathetic excuse for a professional sporting franchise.
I've got to hand it to Munch63 -- that's a perfect rebuttal to Stonewall879's comment. And, really, he's got a point. The pick is the Titans. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (5-5) King is going with the Titans on the road -- he says he sees Vince Young making enough plays to win.
- My pick. (4-6) I'm going with the Texans here -- strong. The Titans have been on a hot streak... but it came against Jacksonville, San Francisco and Buffalo. They already lost to the Texans once this year -- that time in Tennessee -- and I think this is the week they crash back to reality. I'm picking the Texans to win on Monday night.
This list was published on Saturday, November 21, 2009 at 08:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at