11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 2, Ravens at Chargers
Published Saturday, September 19, 2009 at 12:00:00 PM
It's week two of the NFL season and the Browns are very close to being mathematically eliminated from the postseason.
For those just joining us, every week, I use the same 11 methods to predict one NFL game. Then, at the end of the season, we add it all up and see which methods did the best predictive job and which did the worst.
This week's game is the Baltimore Ravens at the San Diego Chargers. The line is San Diego -3.5, but we all just pick the winner straight up.
Published Saturday, September 19, 2009 at 12:00:00 PM
It's week two of the NFL season and the Browns are very close to being mathematically eliminated from the postseason.
For those just joining us, every week, I use the same 11 methods to predict one NFL game. Then, at the end of the season, we add it all up and see which methods did the best predictive job and which did the worst.
This week's game is the Baltimore Ravens at the San Diego Chargers. The line is San Diego -3.5, but we all just pick the winner straight up.
A lightning bolt knocks a raven right out of the sky and kills it.
Now, if it was lightning bolts versus Raven-Symone, things might go different, because she could outsmart (or possibly out-sass) the lightning. But it's not.
- ESPN's Sports Guy. (1-0) He's taking the Ravens. He compares their suddenly-good offense with AMC suddenly having "Mad Men". That's one of those sports-to-pop culture metaphors that have made him so successful. Goddammit. (I explained my seething professional jealousy toward him in Wednesday's Inbox-O-Rama.)
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (0-1) For this comparison, I look at Harris Poll results since 1998 that have asked people to rate their favorite two teams... and I see which teams have had smaller swings in popularity... and thus more loyal fans. (I still need to streamline that description. But it's getting better.)
Chargers fans have been all over the place. For the late '90s and early part of this decade, no one was claiming the Chargers... they even dipped down to 31st most popular out of the 32 teams in 2004. Then they got good and, in 2007, all of a sudden they were 10th most popular. A little injection of the old Marty magic and, by 2008, they were back to 18th. Anyway, their variance has been 38.278, putting them in a dismal 29th place overall in the NFL.
The Ravens fans have been more loyal. Both of them. The Ravens have never had popularity higher than 25th in the NFL... not even during their Super Bowl year! They've dipped as low as 32nd out of 32, but, because of that low range, the variance has only been 5.444, good for 4th place in the NFL.
So the Ravens' handful of loyal fans beats the Chargers' fair-weather army.
Madden 10 simulation. (0-1) Up-to-the-minute updated rosters... including all the Charger injuries... made this simulation end with a 17-14 Ravens win.
The game was back-and-forth, Flacco threw a touchdown pass to McGahee at the two minute warning... and Vincent Jackson fumbled to end San Diego's attempted rally.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (1-0) I ran into a dilemma trying to simulate the game on Tecmo Super Bowl for NES -- back when it was created in 1991, there were no Baltimore Ravens. I quickly came up with a solution, though -- since the Ravens were really just the stolen Browns (and had a decent amount of player overlap), I just plugged in the Browns.
Which was bad news for Ravens fans. The game was ridiculously back and forth and the Chargers led 27-24 with just 1:30 left. (And with the speed of the Tecmo clock, 1:30 is more like seven real seconds.) But, in classic Browns fashion, Kevin Mack fumbled the ball, it was recovered by San Diego, and they ran out the clock. The Chargers won in a true Tecmo shootout.- More intelligent quarterback. (0-1) The Wonderlic intelligence test is administered before the NFL draft ever year and the quarterback scores always get leaked. My thought here: The team with the more intelligent quarterback should win the game.
Philip Rivers for San Diego scored a pretty good (for the NFL at least) 30 out of 50. Joe Flacco for the Ravens scored a 27. So the pick here is the Chargers.- My parents' dog. (1-0) I actually got to witness the dog making her pick this week. We put one biscuit on one side of the room for Baltimore, the other on the other side for San Diego. As soon as we let her loose she headed straight for the Ravens biscuit.
Accuscore. (1-0) Accuscore runs tens of thousands of computer simulations of the game, and uses that to pick a winner. This week it really likes the Chargers over the Ravens at home... their pick is pretty definitive here.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (1-0) Since there is no group of people with more collective wisdom and throughly-researched analaysis than Internet commenters, each week, I'm hosting a debate to pick a winner. I select four comments from ESPN's comment section, two for each team, then analyze the game using the points made by the fans.
bodymore23: Chargers are in trouble after the injuries they suffered lasdt night. There O-line is in shambles. and expect ravens to take advantadge of this. We will attck phillip rivers and force him to make mistakes. Raven fans are insane for crying bout week one. yiou people cry when we have a qb who cant air it out and give us a solid offense.. How long has it been since we had a qb who not only can throw but has pocket awarness his td pass to mcgahee when he scrambled was beautiful.. please stop being so damn negative
Tough debate. Bodymore23 has some great early analysis about the Chargers -- "There O-line is in shambles. and expect ravens to take advantadge of this." Lots of truth there. But then he misdirects his anger at his fellow Ravens fans, taking a little juice out of his argument.
footballpig6: holy #### raven fans are about as smart as the animal their team is named after. Whoever thinks Rivers is overrated is a dumb #### and Jackson is the best Receiver in the AFC west and in is a top notch guy among all WR, Gates frist off puts up crazy numbers all the time hurt or not, LT is one of the best to ever play so show respect, don't be like the murder on ur team Ray Louis.
it is me you fool: haha the chargers are sooooooo overratted , rivers yards come in garbage time , LT is faking an ankle injury , gates is a hasbeen , jackson is a never was , norv turner could best serve the bolts at team dinners by filling his pock marks with condiments
longstemmedmushroom: Merriman's gonna treat flacco like he treats his skinny asian tart...that unibrow and his sorry excuse for an offense have no chance to compete against the chargers. anyone who thinks otherwise is misguided at best and delerious at worst.
Footballpig6 tries to rebut, but loses a little steam for me on his "Jackson is the best Receiver in the AFC west" comment -- being the best receiver in the AFC West is like being the best chef at a Chili's.
It is me you fool brings out a long string of insults that really hurt the Charger credibility... although the Norv Turner pock mark zing is hopelessly labored. Really should've workshopped that joke.
And finally, though I am loathe to listen to a guy named Longstemmedmushroom, he manages to weave Merriman beating up Tila Tequila into his game analysis, uses the word "tart" properly AND spells delirious "delerious"... which is the closest anyone in Internet history has ever come to spelling it correctly. (It would be like someone on the Internet properly using the words "ironically" or "literally" or "you're.")
So in a close call I'm going with the Chargers fans as the winners of this debate... and, therefore, the Chargers as the winners of this game.- Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (1-0) I had to re-read this sentence three times before I figured out what he was talking about: "Center Nick Hardwick could be as significant an injury for the Chargers with Haloti Ngata and Kelly Gregg coming to town as Brian Urlacher being out of the lineup for Chicago." Sentence structure may not be his strong suit but picking games is; he's going with the Chargers just sneaking past the Ravens in a close one.
- My pick. (0-1) Everyone seems to like the Chargers and, again, like so often last season, I find myself in the opposite camp. The Chargers looked extraordinarily shaky against the Raiders last week... their offensive line is in trouble... Tomlinson is out or limited... and I think the Ravens are a playoff team this year. So I see the Ravens winning this one on the road.
Overall tallies: Chargers 6, Ravens 5. Updated records next week.
This list was published on Saturday, September 19, 2009 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.Did you enjoy this list?
11 Points is a one-man operation that relies on word-of-mouth & repeat readers.
So please consider sharing this list using the social media icons in the box, and/or joining the 11 Points mailing list, Facebook fan page and Twitter feed.
11 Results For the Weirdest Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets (All Of Which I Actually Made)
Published Tuesday, February 7, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Sports
11 Picks for NFL 2011- Super Bowl, Giants vs Patriots
Published Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks
11 Weirdest Super Bowl XLVI Prop Bets (All of Which I Actually Made)
Published Wednesday, February 1, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Sports
11 Kissing Games, Ranked From Most to Least Innocent
Published Friday, January 27, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Games
11 Ridiculous Fast Food Chain Ripoffs In China
Published Tuesday, January 24, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Food & Drink
11 Picks for NFL 2011- Playoffs Week 3, Giants at 49ers
Published Saturday, January 21, 2012 at 10:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks
Full Archive11 Points is comprised entirely of (theoretically) humorous 11-item lists covering a giant swath of topics.
It's composed entirely by this stern-
faced goon to the right. His name
is Sam. Screw Flanders.
11 Points Mailing List
updates, contests, exclusives(advertisement)
Friends, Bloggers and Well-Wishers
(Meaning they wish me no specific harm.)
(advertisement)
11 Points is a collection of exhaustively-researched, meticulously-written, theoretically-humorous 11-item lists, covering topics ranging from TV and movies to the Internet and video games to food and dating to politics and race relations.
It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
- ESPN's Sports Guy. (1-0) He's taking the Ravens. He compares their suddenly-good offense with AMC suddenly having "Mad Men". That's one of those sports-to-pop culture metaphors that have made him so successful. Goddammit. (I explained my seething professional jealousy toward him in Wednesday's Inbox-O-Rama.)