11 Picks for 2009 NFL Playoffs Week 3, Vikings at Saints
Published Saturday, January 23, 2010 at 04:00:00 PM
The picks season is coming to an end -- only the Super Bowl remains after this week -- and, as it seems to go, almost all of these predictive methods have seemingly regressed to the mean.
One of the upsides of the small sample size nature of this contest, though, is that every pick counts. Especially now as we all jockey for position and I try to get myself out of the absolute basement. (Yep. After 19 weeks I'm in sole possession of last place.)
This week, we're all predicting the NFC Championship, with the Minnesota Vikings at the New Orleans Saints. On paper, it looks like the game of the year. The line is New Orleans -3.5, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, January 23, 2010 at 04:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, January 23, 2010 at 04:00:00 PM
The picks season is coming to an end -- only the Super Bowl remains after this week -- and, as it seems to go, almost all of these predictive methods have seemingly regressed to the mean.
One of the upsides of the small sample size nature of this contest, though, is that every pick counts. Especially now as we all jockey for position and I try to get myself out of the absolute basement. (Yep. After 19 weeks I'm in sole possession of last place.)
This week, we're all predicting the NFC Championship, with the Minnesota Vikings at the New Orleans Saints. On paper, it looks like the game of the year. The line is New Orleans -3.5, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (9-10) For this one, I do three different head-to-head battles between incarnations of the teams' mascots.
The first battle is a Viking against a Saint. It's an interesting matchup, and, I think, really hinges on whether the saint has time to get an assist from God before the Viking pummels him. Based on the track record of vikings, I think they generally won that race. Vikings take the first matchup.
The second one is a battle of two Minnesota cities -- the small, northern town of Viking, Minnesota, against the capital city, St. Paul. There's no contest -- in a too-good-to-pass-up twist, the Saints end up winning the battle of the Minnesota cities.
So it's 1-1 going into a video game battle: The 2008 game Viking: Battle for Asgard against the 2006 game Saints Row. I've never played either, so I'm going to go off critical reception. Viking: Battle of Asgard got an aggregate ranking of about 70 percent on the site Game Rankings, being docked for "a minimal story, empty game world, repetition and lack of sound at times." Saints Row, despite being something of a Grand Theft Auto rip-off, did better, pulling in an aggregate score of 82 percent. So the win goes to the Saints, 2-1.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (12-7) Right now, ESPN's Sports Guy is in sole possession of first place here, with a one game lead over Madden 10. (And since they have different picks this week, that's not going to maintain.) The Sports Guy is picking the Saints to win a close one, 34-27. His primary rationale: That Prince did a bad tribute song to the Vikings. Seriously. Ladies and gentlemen, the most popular sportswriter in America.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (8-11) For this measure, I look at the results, from 1998-2009, of annual Harris poll. The poll asked fans to name their favorite team. I then analyze how much each team's score has varied over the 11-year time period -- figuring the less variance, the more loyal the fans.
The Vikings have had a VERY up-and-down period of time -- and, had Brett Favre not arrived and euthanized the Tavaris Jackson era, things might've gotten even worse. Their highest rank was 7th most popular in the NFL (twice, in 1999 and 2003); their lowest rank was 21st most popular (in 2006). That gives them a statistical variance of 22.69, 19th place out of the 32 NFL teams.
Not great... but better than New Orleans. They've got that "everyone's second-favorite team" thing going now, but it hasn't always been that way. In 2006, they ranked 31st out of the 32 NFL teams. A mere two years later, they were up to 17th. Their variance is 26.25, putting them 23rd in the NFL. So the pick is the Vikings. - Madden 10 simulation. (11-8) Madden 10, with its up-to-the-minute rosters and hyper-realistic gameplay, likes the Vikings. A lot. It doesn't see this game being anywhere close. Brett Favre threw for four touchdowns, the Vikings defense was just as smothering against the Saints as it was against the Cowboys, and the Vikings take it without breaking a sweat, 28-10.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (9-10) When Tecmo Super Bowl was made 19 years ago, neither the Saints nor Vikings had quite the dynamic offenses that they have today. The Vikings took a 14-7 lead into the 4th quarter, mostly on the strength of Herschel Walker's legs. (Ah, expectations in 1991 were really something.) The Saints rallied to tie it in the fourth and send it to overtime; after a big kickoff return, Ironhead Heyward broke a ton of tackles to run in the game-winning touchdown. The Saints won in overtime without the Vikings ever touching the ball.
- More intelligent quarterback. (8-11) For this one, I look at the Wonderlic scores of the starting quarterbacks. The Wonderlic is a 50-question intelligence test that every prospect takes before the NFL draft.
Back when Brett Favre took it (sometime around when we were fightin' the Kaiser), he got a troublesome 22 out of 50. Drew Brees did a bit better, getting a 28. (Should this raise my opinion of Purdue? Absolutely not.) The pick is the Saints. - My parents' dog. (10-9) My parents are legitimately upset that, after leading the pack almost all season, Laska's hit a cold streak and dropped back down with the rest of the field. It is a shame. I was kinda hoping either she or Tecmo Super Bowl would shock the world -- doesn't look like either is going to happen.
This week, Laska ate the biscuit that represented the Saints, so that's her pick.
Accuscore. (9-10) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game to make its pick. It sees the Saints winning about five out of every nine times.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (8-11) Here, I see what the Internet message board fans are saying, for better or worse. I choose select comments from ESPN's message board about the game, arrange them as a debate, and pick a winner based around which fanbase has made stronger points.
Huntaholic30804: Brees 28-36 319 yds 3 tds 1int 4 sacks
These are some oddly specific predictions. Also, it strikes me as odd that this Saints fan would predict that Brees will throw an interception and get sacked four times. That's not how the Internet works. His predicted QB lines should've been: "Brees 35-37, 489 yards, 5 tds, 0 int, 0 sacks / Favre 7-19, 83 yards, 0 td, 4 int, 6 sacks, 2 concussions." Shaky start.
Favre 31-45 302 yds 2 tds 2 int 2 sacks
Peterson 26- 132yds 1td 1fumble
Thomas, Bush, Bell- 34- 119 yds 2 tds
Final Score 38-33 Saints
NFC Championship MVP- Robert Meachem- 7-127yds 2 tdsOhio Dirty Bird: Its Ironic that the Saints became good after hurricane Katrina
I just don't understand this. Even under the Internet definition of irony (where irony means "anything and everything") this doesn't make sense. Both teams off to a shaky start, Saints doing slightly better after one back and forth.peterreedkidusn07: hahaha [favre] will retire and unretire by game time hahahaha
It's not the most creative crack ever. Worthy of a FOUR "ha" salute? I'm not thinking so.srvfan4everman: peterreedkidusn07, that wasnt funny and your an idiot
If I had to sum up the discourse of the Internet in three words they would be "your an idiot." That so perfectly coalesces the mentality of a message board fan it almost brings a tear to my eye. Give this man the debate. Vikings are the pick. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (10-9) Veteran sportswriter King sees this one being close, and, like most of the other methods, he likes the Saints. King picks New Orleans to win 31-27 because he "think[s] Sean Payton knows how to coach against oppressive rushes."
- My pick. (7-12) I recognize that it's going to be hard to keep up with the masses by making the populist pick... but I just don't see the Saints losing this game. Minnesota's clearly good, but this feels like a charmed season for the Saints... and with that, I see them going to the Super Bowl.
This list was published on Saturday, January 23, 2010 at 04:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at