11 Picks for 2009 NFL Week 12, Seahawks at Rams
Published Saturday, November 28, 2009 at 06:00:00 AM
An incredibly busy Thanksgiving week has kept my 11 Pointing at a very low level. But I was still determined not to break up the NFL picks for the week, so I knocked these out strong.
For those new here, each week I choose one NFL game and use 11 different methods to predict the winner. At the end of the season we get to see which method was the most effective. Right now, my parents' dog is in sole possession of first place, having randomly predicted her way to an 8-3 record.
This week's game is the 3-7 Seattle Seahawks at the 1-9 St. Louis Rams. Someone's gotta win! (In theory I should've gone with the Patriots-Saints game, but I've already used both of those this season and I feel like they're going to come up again during the playoffs, so I wanted to use a different pick 'em game with two more obscure teams.) The line is the Seahawks -3 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, November 28, 2009 at 06:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, November 28, 2009 at 06:00:00 AM
An incredibly busy Thanksgiving week has kept my 11 Pointing at a very low level. But I was still determined not to break up the NFL picks for the week, so I knocked these out strong.
For those new here, each week I choose one NFL game and use 11 different methods to predict the winner. At the end of the season we get to see which method was the most effective. Right now, my parents' dog is in sole possession of first place, having randomly predicted her way to an 8-3 record.
This week's game is the 3-7 Seattle Seahawks at the 1-9 St. Louis Rams. Someone's gotta win! (In theory I should've gone with the Patriots-Saints game, but I've already used both of those this season and I feel like they're going to come up again during the playoffs, so I wanted to use a different pick 'em game with two more obscure teams.) The line is the Seahawks -3 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (5-6) In the first matchup it's a seahawk (aka osprey) versus a ram. As much as the seahawk seems dangerous, ultimately, the ram's size advantage just puts it over the top. It'd take a few shots from the talons then just pounds it to death. 1-0, Rams.
In the second battle it's the 1940 Errol Flynn movie "The Sea Hawk" against some computer RAM. I'm not sure what "The Sea Hawk" is really about, but it looks like a high seas swashbuckling adventure. And that's just way cooler than making your computer able to open multiple programs. Which takes us to 1-1 in this battle.
For the rubber match it's two Filmation characters: Sea Hawk from "She-Ra" versus Ram Man from "He-Man"! And, frankly, it's no contest. Not only is "He-Man" the superior show... but Sea Hawk would have his ambiguous pink ascot knocked right off by Ram Man's metal headbutts. So the victory here, and overall, goes to the Rams.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (7-4) He's going with the Rams at home over Seattle. (He didn't do explanations this week for why he's making his picks, but I'm sure it would involve the phrases "Zombie Sonics" and/or "Sweep the leg!")
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (3-8) For this pick, I look at the popularity scores of the teams over the past 11 years. Each year, there's a Harris poll that asks football fans to name their favorite team -- I've taken that data and figured out the statistical variance. My theory: The less variance, the more loyal the fans -- meaning that team should have the 12th man advantage.
The Seahawks are an interesting case. Usually teams that have been mired in mediocrity but somehow busted in a quick Super Bowl run have crazy variance because people get fair-weather during the good times. Seattle's never been more popular than 12th in the NFL (in 2006, naturally) and never been less popular than 24th (the year before, in 2005). Overall, their statistical variance is a 17.25, good for 11th place in the NFL.
The Rams are the opposite case. During the fat years everyone loved them... during the lean years people haven't been able to hop off the bandwagon fast enough. They've been as popular as 5th (in 2002) and as unpopular as 30th (both in 1999 and 2008)... with a statistical variance of 76. That's second-to-last in the NFL over the past 11 years (only better than the Colts). So the pick is the Seahawks. - Madden 10 simulation. (5-6) Here, my friend John simulates the game on Madden 10. With its up-to-the-minute rosters and most realistic game play ever, the simulation should be accurate. In theory.
The Seahawks led throughout until the Rams busted out two 50+-yard touchdown passes in the last two minutes and won, 24-20. Steven Jackson had more than 160 total yards and two touchdowns. So Madden 10 is picking the Rams.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (6-5) This is my juxtaposition to simulating the games in Madden; I also simulate them with the 18-year-old NES game Super Tecmo Bowl, just to see if this turns out better.
Just utter domination by Los Angeles. (Who, of course, went on to be St. Louis shortly thereafter.) The "other" Curt Warner on the Rams scored four touchdowns, Dave Krieg couldn't get anything going for the Seahawks, and the Rams win in a blowout, 31-9.- More intelligent quarterback. (2-9) Here, I use the pre-NFL draft intelligence test scores of the teams' starting QBs. I figure the smarter the quarterback, the better off the team.
Matt Hasselbeck on the Seahawks got a 29. That's the same score as Marc Bulger, the usual starting quarterback for the Rams... but Bulger's out and Kyle Boller will be starting Sunday. His Wonderlic intelligence test score? A 27. So the pick is the Seahawks. - My parents' dog. (8-3) Being home for Thanksgiving, I got to witness my parents' dog Laska making her weekly pick. My parents put two dog biscuits on opposite sides of the room, each biscuit representing a different team. Whichever one she eats first is her pick.
This week she went right for the biscuit representing the Rams. She ate the Seahawks biscuit right afterward... but the pick is the pick. I even took a video of it which I'll upload when I'm back in L.A. After all, she deserves it -- she is in sole possession of first place.
Accuscore. (6-5) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game to predict a winner. Seattle won 56 percent of those, so the Seahawks are the pick.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (5-6) For this measure, I go to ESPN's message board about the game. I take some of the particularly brilliant quotes from fans about the game, arrange them as a debate and pick a winner.
At least... that's what I do normally. This week I didn't even have four good quotes to choose from. Because the number of total comments on this game at press time were... 22. Twenty-two comments. For comparison's sake, the Broncos-Raiders game I did in week three had one thousand times that. So rather than force a debate out of this apathy, I've decided to use math instead. Add up the pro-Seahawks comments, add up the pro-Rams comments... whichever team has more vocal fans wins.
The tally: Seahawks 9 comments, Rams 8 comments, They Both Suck 3 comments, Traditional Internet Message Board Jibberish 2 comments. So the Seahawks just squeak by in an honest-to-God Indifference Bowl. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (6-5) He likes the Rams winning a close one, 23-20, at home. It's amazing how many of these picks are going to the 1-9 Rams. Quite the slap in the old face to Seattle.
- My pick. (4-7) I know the Rams are at home and neither team has anything to play for... yet I can't shake this feeling that the Seahawks are just better. I pick the Seahawks. Now let us never speak of these teams again.
This list was published on Saturday, November 28, 2009 at 06:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at