11 Picks for 2009 NFL Week 13, Cowboys at Giants
Published Saturday, December 5, 2009 at 05:00:00 PM
For those who've never been here on NFL pick day, each week during the NFL season I select one game. Then I use 11 different methods to predict the outcome of that game. At the end of the season we see which method worked the best.
After 12 weeks, my parents' dog Laska is in sole possession of first place at 8-4. But that's only a one-game lead on two of the other methods, ESPN's Sports Guy and Accuscore.
This week, the game we'll be picking is the Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants. The line is Dallas -1.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, December 5, 2009 at 05:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, December 5, 2009 at 05:00:00 PM
For those who've never been here on NFL pick day, each week during the NFL season I select one game. Then I use 11 different methods to predict the outcome of that game. At the end of the season we see which method worked the best.
After 12 weeks, my parents' dog Laska is in sole possession of first place at 8-4. But that's only a one-game lead on two of the other methods, ESPN's Sports Guy and Accuscore.
This week, the game we'll be picking is the Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants. The line is Dallas -1.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (5-7) In the first battle, we have a traditional cowboy versus a traditional (if such a thing exists) giant. I think this battle is no contest -- a cowboy can try to lasso one of the giant's arms or maybe have a lifelong, secret gay love affair with him, but that's not going to win the battle. Giants lead, 1-0.
Battle two is a musical one: Kid Rock's "Cowboy" versus "Giant" hip-hop magazine. As much as I want to take it away from Kid Rock, that was really when he peaked... meanwhile "Giant" does things like putting Robin Thicke on the cover. Surprisingly, this one is now tied at 1-1.
So it all comes down to the pro wrestling rubber match: "Cowboy" Bob Orton versus The Giant (err... Big Show). Bob Orton is the real-life father of current WWE star Randy Orton; The Giant perpetrated that he was actually Andre's son for about two minutes before everyone realized it was a lie. So the pick is Cowboy Bob Orton for keeping it real. The Cowboys take it, 2-1.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (7-5) He's going with the Cowboys to win on the road. No real elaborating on that pick.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (4-8) For this method, I use an annual Harris poll that asks fans to name their favorite NFL team. I look at how much each team's overall rank has fluctuated through the past 11 years; I figure the less variance, the more loyal fans... and therefore the bigger "12th man" advantage.
The Giants have had very loyal fans... and their periodic Super Bowl appearances over the past decade haven't hurt. They've been as popular as 4th in the NFL (in 2004) and as low as 13th (the following year). Their statistical variance is 6.75, good for 5th place in the NFL. Which would normally be enough to win.
Except... they're playing the Cowboys. I'm loathe to use the term "America's Team"... but the stats don't lie. Over the past 11 years they've been the most popular team in the NFL five times (including '07 and '08)... and never lower than 4th. Their statistical variance is an unbelievable 1.0... easily good for first place in the NFL. So the pick is the Cowboys. - Madden 10 simulation. (5-7) In a close one, using Madden 10's up-to-the-second rosters, the Cowboys won 31-24. Tony Romo hit Miles Austin for two touchdowns in the second half to close out the game.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (6-6) Really good game in the 18-year-old NES classic Tecmo Super Bowl. Both offenses lit it up, with Emmitt Smith and Phil Simms both looking all-world. The Giants rallied back to tie the game at the end of the fourth quarter, sending it to overtime... then forced a Cowboys punt, kicked a field goal on first down and won. So the pick is the Giants.
- More intelligent quarterback. (3-9) For this measure, I look at the Wonderlic scores of both starting QBs -- the Wonderlic is a 50-question intelligence test that all aspiring NFL players take before the draft.
Coming out of Eastern Illinois, Tony Romo scored a strong 37. But Eli Manning came out of Ole Miss and knocked out a 39... putting him in the 99th percentile of all people who took the Wonderlic (and beating his brother's score by 11 points). So the pick is the Giants. - My parents' dog. (8-4) With this pick, my parents set up two dog biscuits on opposite sides of the room, with each biscuit representing one of the teams. Then, they let their dog, Laska, into the room, and see which biscuit she eats first.
This week she went straight for the New York biscuit, then took her time with it before she inevitably ate the Dallas biscuit. So Laska's pick is the Giants by a comfortable margin.
Accuscore. (7-5) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game to predict a winner. This is the closest its been in any of our weekly games this year... defying the betting line, it sees the Giants winning just slightly more often than the Cowboyws.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (6-6) Here, I consult the people whose opinions I respect the most: Irrational message board fans. I arrange some key comments as a debate, then pick a winner based on the quality of the arguments.
bmjgd: I remember a couple of years ago, the Colts were 9-0 and the Cowboys took them and Manning apart. Same thing is coming to the Saints!
OK, this feels like a Cowboys fan -- look past the seemingly "lesser" game at hand and focus on the best team in the conference. A team, of course, that just MUST be better worse than Dallas. Let's see how the Giants fans respond.sisophous: As a loyal Giants fan I have to say the Giants totally S-U-C-K!!!!! Sh-Eli is pathetic and has no clue where to throw the ball. He throws like a girl and looks like a JV second string quarterback. The Offensive line is terrible and can't pass protect and can't block. The defense can't put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They can't cover receivers and blow coverages continually. The Giants are now a bad team. They are truly an overrated team most of all their offensive line that has been getting great praise over the years is now inept at performing. All of them stink. I see guys just standing around and not even blocking or making an effort. Did anyone watch McKenzie on Thanksgiving? He did not even come to play, guys ran right around him. Osi-U-Manure barking at his players on the sidelines but did he do anything? As much as I hate the Cowboys, I have to bet the Cowboys will win this game by 4 touchdowns.
A stereotypical Cowboys fan followed up by a stereotypical Giants fan -- he's already given up hope on the team, the season and every player on the roster. I didn't want to pick such a sad comment... but the Giants fans REALLY didn't give me much to work with.Gster0508: Im a Cowboys fan but i'm not just going to say that we will win this game it will be hard. The giants are coming off a tough thanksgiving loss, not to mention they hate us, they will come out with everything they've got. I'm sure the giants would love to once again beat the cowboys and jump back into the division title race. However the cowboys were beaten by the giants on the last play of the game at their new stadium, which is a HUGE motivation for us to come out and take total command of the divison. I say Dallas takes it 33 - 17
So even a Dallas fan trying to be humble predicts a "close" 16-point victory.mrjason2: Miles Austin is a #### and the cowboys suck, as a matter of fact they started sucking before december this year, so all you cowboy #### are in for a hell of a ride this year HAHAHAAHAAHAHA!!!!!
This comment is important because, out of 220+ comments, it was the only aggressive, irrational pro-Giants argument that anyone made. The fans have, it seems, quit. The pick is easily the Cowboys. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (6-6) King says this is the toughest game of the week to pick; ultimately, he's going with the Cowboys winning a close one, 24-22.
- My pick. (5-7) I know it's in New York and the the Cowboys are traditionally horrible in December. BUT... a few weeks back, I picked the Giants to win saying I thought they were the best team in the NFL... and I'm not making that mistake again. I'm going Cowboys.
This list was published on Saturday, December 5, 2009 at 05:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at