11 Picks for 2009 NFL Week 15, Browns at Chiefs
Published Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 05:00:00 PM
Every week I choose one NFL game and use 11 methods to predict the winner. So far this season, the most reliable method has been... letting my parents' dog, Laska, pick a game by randomly choosing a biscuit. She's in sole possession of first place after 14 weeks with a 9-5 record. I, on the other hand, have fallen into a three-way tie for LAST place, at 5-9. So... shit.
This week's game is the abysmal Cleveland Browns at the abysmal Kansas City Chiefs. I chose this game for two reasons. One, I didn't want to choose one with playoff teams, since we'll see plenty of them when I do these lists in January. And two, both teams recently beat Pittsburgh, and I really wanted to have a chance to bring that up.
Battle of the mascots. (6-8) Here I do a best-of-three battle between different representations of the teams' mascots. In the first battle it's the most literal interpretation: The color brown against an Indian chief. Since the chief is a legendary representation of toughness and the color brown is, well, not a thing... this first matchup goes to the Chiefs.
The second battle is one of nicknames: UPS, which has nicknamed itself "Brown"... and The Chief from "Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego?" As much as I like the way she tells gumshoes what to do, I think the UPS driver would hike up his shorts and run her over. (Ya know, assuming he actually shows up to the fight and doesn't just pretend to ring the doorbell then leave a note saying you missed him.) This goes to the Browns.
The rubber match brings us to the family from Tyler Perry's sitcom "Meet the Browns" against somewhat-popular British rock band the Kaiser Chiefs. I can't bring myself to award anything to Tyler Perry. Normally I'd be afraid people would think it was because I'm white and don't "get" him, but my Twitter friend @tiffdamar has assured me that rolling your eyes at Tyler Perry knows no race.
So the winner is the Chiefs, 2-1.
ESPN's Sports Guy. (8-6) This week, again, ESPN Page 2's The Sports Guy is not offering explanations for his picks, but he's going with the Chiefs at home.
Fair-weatherness of fans. (5-9) This method operates under the assumption that loyal fans will provide a "12th man" advantage. I use data from an annual Harris poll where people name their favorite team. I've taken the results from the past 11 years and figured out the statistical variance for each team's rank -- the lower the variance, the less the fans' loyalty has wavered.
The new Browns purchased the colors, name and history (?) from the old Browns, and that led to MUCH better loyalty than the average expansion team. The Browns have been ranked as high as 12th in the NFL, but have had two very down years -- in 2004 they were 24th and in 2008 they were 22nd. Overall, the statistical variance is 18.7, putting them at 16th place in the league.
You've got to give Chiefs fans credit -- they've stuck this thing out. The Chiefs have been as high as 11th and as low as 23rd but, in general, they've always been in the 20-23 range. That gives them a variance of 17.78, 13th in the NFL... so they get the win here.
Madden 10 simulation. (6-8) Using Madden 10's updated rosters and Most Realistic Gameplay Ever, the Browns managed to pull off a 16-7 victory. Josh Cribbs ran back the opening kickoff, Matt Cassel threw three INTs and the Browns did just enough to win.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (8-6) So Madden 10 uses up-to-the-second rosters. Tecmo Super Bowl for NES uses rosters that are 18 years old.
This game was odd -- lots of field goals, lots of sacks -- and, in the end, the Chiefs had a touchdown run that sealed it in the closing seconds. So the pick is the Chiefs.
More intelligent quarterback. (5-9) This measure uses the results of the Wonderlic test -- a 50-question intelligence test that each player takes before the NFL draft.
Cleveland's quarterback Brady Quinn got a 29 (out of 50) coming out of Notre Dame... Kansas City's Matt Cassel got either a 25 or 26 (I saw it listed differently all over). Either way, Quinn and the Browns are the pick.
My parents' dog. (9-5) To figure out this pick, my parents put two dog biscuits on opposite sides of a room. Each biscuit represents a different team. Then, they let Laska into the room and whichever biscuit she goes for is the pick.
This week she went right for the Browns. What can I say? She's a Cleveland-based dog who has a surprising amount of hometown pride. (Although she has serious, serious beef with Cleveland's mail carriers.)
Now, as promised, here's a video of Laska making a pick. It's the one I witnessed firsthand when I was home for Thanksgiving, the pick between the St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
Accuscore. (6-8) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulation of the game to predict the winner. It likes the Chiefs by a slight, slight margin, 51 percent to 48 percent.
Internet commenter debate winner. (6-8) Usually, I take the best message board quotes about the game, arrange them as a debate, and pick a winner. But when the games are between teams that are at the bottom of the league (like Seattle and St. Louis a few weeks ago) -- there just aren't enough quotes to choose from.
Since, as of press time, there were only 40 comments on ESPN's message board for this game, I just added up the fan presence.
There were 12 pro-Browns comments, 14 pro-Chiefs comments, five nonsense comments and the rest were comments about how neither team deserves to win. So the pick is the Chiefs.
Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (6-8) King likes the Browns here, winning by a score that befits a game like this -- 17 to 12.
My pick. (5-9) The majority seems to be going with Kansas City, but I'm going with the Browns getting a winning streak going. Yeah, that Pittsburgh win last Thursday has me talking crazy.
Overall tallies: Chiefs 6, Browns 5. Updated records next week.
This list was published on Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 05:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 05:00:00 PM
Every week I choose one NFL game and use 11 methods to predict the winner. So far this season, the most reliable method has been... letting my parents' dog, Laska, pick a game by randomly choosing a biscuit. She's in sole possession of first place after 14 weeks with a 9-5 record. I, on the other hand, have fallen into a three-way tie for LAST place, at 5-9. So... shit.
This week's game is the abysmal Cleveland Browns at the abysmal Kansas City Chiefs. I chose this game for two reasons. One, I didn't want to choose one with playoff teams, since we'll see plenty of them when I do these lists in January. And two, both teams recently beat Pittsburgh, and I really wanted to have a chance to bring that up.
 |
The second battle is one of nicknames: UPS, which has nicknamed itself "Brown"... and The Chief from "Where in the World is Carmen Sandiego?" As much as I like the way she tells gumshoes what to do, I think the UPS driver would hike up his shorts and run her over. (Ya know, assuming he actually shows up to the fight and doesn't just pretend to ring the doorbell then leave a note saying you missed him.) This goes to the Browns.
The rubber match brings us to the family from Tyler Perry's sitcom "Meet the Browns" against somewhat-popular British rock band the Kaiser Chiefs. I can't bring myself to award anything to Tyler Perry. Normally I'd be afraid people would think it was because I'm white and don't "get" him, but my Twitter friend @tiffdamar has assured me that rolling your eyes at Tyler Perry knows no race.
So the winner is the Chiefs, 2-1.
The new Browns purchased the colors, name and history (?) from the old Browns, and that led to MUCH better loyalty than the average expansion team. The Browns have been ranked as high as 12th in the NFL, but have had two very down years -- in 2004 they were 24th and in 2008 they were 22nd. Overall, the statistical variance is 18.7, putting them at 16th place in the league.
You've got to give Chiefs fans credit -- they've stuck this thing out. The Chiefs have been as high as 11th and as low as 23rd but, in general, they've always been in the 20-23 range. That gives them a variance of 17.78, 13th in the NFL... so they get the win here.
 |
This game was odd -- lots of field goals, lots of sacks -- and, in the end, the Chiefs had a touchdown run that sealed it in the closing seconds. So the pick is the Chiefs.
Cleveland's quarterback Brady Quinn got a 29 (out of 50) coming out of Notre Dame... Kansas City's Matt Cassel got either a 25 or 26 (I saw it listed differently all over). Either way, Quinn and the Browns are the pick.
This week she went right for the Browns. What can I say? She's a Cleveland-based dog who has a surprising amount of hometown pride. (Although she has serious, serious beef with Cleveland's mail carriers.)
Now, as promised, here's a video of Laska making a pick. It's the one I witnessed firsthand when I was home for Thanksgiving, the pick between the St. Louis Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
 |
Since, as of press time, there were only 40 comments on ESPN's message board for this game, I just added up the fan presence.
There were 12 pro-Browns comments, 14 pro-Chiefs comments, five nonsense comments and the rest were comments about how neither team deserves to win. So the pick is the Chiefs.
This list was published on Saturday, December 19, 2009 at 05:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at