11 Picks for 2009 NFL Week 16, Chargers at Titans
Published Friday, December 25, 2009 at 03:00:00 AM
Each week, I use 11 methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. Usually I post this on Saturday or Sunday, but this Christmas matchup was just too good to pass up.
The game is the San Diego Chargers at the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers have all but wrapped up the #2 seed in the AFC; the Titans still need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. The line is Tennessee -2.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Friday, December 25, 2009 at 03:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, December 25, 2009 at 03:00:00 AM
Each week, I use 11 methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. Usually I post this on Saturday or Sunday, but this Christmas matchup was just too good to pass up.
The game is the San Diego Chargers at the Tennessee Titans. The Chargers have all but wrapped up the #2 seed in the AFC; the Titans still need to win out to have a shot at the playoffs. The line is Tennessee -2.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (6-9) In the first battle, we have the literal interpretations: A bolt of lightning against a Greek supernatural Titan. This one goes to the Titans -- lightning is powerful, but I feel like a giant titan like Atlas probably gets struck by lightning regularly (an occupational hazard of holding up the planet)... and just shakes it off.
Battle two is a charger -- aka the plate-under-a-plate at a fancy restaurant -- against the former faux parent company of the World Wrestling Federation, Titan Sports. I matched them up because both are useless; the charger is just there for show and eventually gets whisked away by the waiter... but Titan Sports was run by Jack Tunney, who was more of a pawn than Jeff Bridges in Tim Robbins's scheme in "Arlington Road". (Count the obscure references in THAT sentence!) I have to go with the Chargers for the win here, because, at least, they still exist... once the WWF became the WWE, we never heard about the shell corporation of Titan Sports again.
So we go to the rubber match: A Dodge Charger versus a Nissan Titan. The Nissan is bigger... but the old Charger has American muscle. And, inspired by one of Titan Sports's best employees, I want to start chanting U-S-A! U-S-A! Hoooooooo! The winner is the Chargers, 2-1.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (8-7) ESPN's crown jewel, The Sports Guy, is picking the Chargers. He didn't give an explanation.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (5-10) For this measure, I look at the results of an annual Harris poll which asks fans to name their favorite team. I take the results of the past 11 years and figure out how much a team's popularity has gone up and down -- figuring the less change, the more loyal the fans, and the better off the team is.
This, my friends, is a battle of two fan bases that have rapidly come and gone over the past 11 years.
The Chargers have been all over the board -- 26th most popular in 1997, 31st most popular in 2004, up to 10th most popular in 2007. The statistical variance in their rankings is 38.28... making their fans 29th out of the 32 NFL teams in terms of statistical loyalty.
The Titans are just ever so slightly better. They've been as unpopular as 31st (in 1999)... but never exceeded 14th in popularity (in 2003). That gives them a statistical variance of 37.19, good for 28th in the NFL... and the win. - Madden 10 simulation. (7-8) Huge thanks to @JohnIsello on Twitter for running this for me. His simulation, using Madden 10's updated rosters and ultra-realistic gameplay, produced a 28-13 Chargers win in a run-heavy game.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (8-7) In contrast to Madden 10's cutting edge play, here's 18-year-old Tecmo Super Bowl for NES weighing in with a different opinion. The Oilers (who became the Titans) absolutely dominated the Chargers. The 38-7 score doesn't reflect the massacre on the field. Lorenzo White had four touchdowns for the Oilers -- two running, two passing -- and they won without blinking.
- More intelligent quarterback. (6-9) For this one, I look at the Wonderlic scores of both teams' starting quarterbacks. The Wonderlic is a pre-draft intelligence test that every player takes.
Vince Young on the Titans drew headlines when there was a rumor he scored a Gumpian six out of 50 on the test... it turned out he actually scored a 16. That's still low, but not headline-making low.
Philip Rivers did much better, scoring a 30 out of 50 when he came out of North Carolina State. So the pick is the Chargers. - My parents' dog. (10-5) Your undisputed league leader, sitting two games ahead of anyone else, is my parents' dog, Laska. Each week my parents lay out two biscuits on different sides of a room, with each biscuit representing a team. Whichever one Laska goes for first is her pick.
This week Laska went for the Titans biscuit. We shall see if she keeps up her lead.
Accuscore. (6-9) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game and uses that to predict a winner. This week it just slightly prefers San Diego... as the Chargers won in 52 percent of its runs.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (6-9) Here, I consult with the minds on ESPN's message boards to see what they think about the game. I highlight some particularly choice comments and pick a debate winner.
titans_freak23: GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO TITANS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
I understand wanting to win, but does Philip Rivers really need to get seriously injured to make that a possibility?
PUT PHILLIP RIVERS ON I.R. TITANS WIN 28-21 GO TITANSgupsphoo: Go Chargers! Beat the T I T S!
Leaving out the "A" and "N" is enjoyable wordplay. It's like taking stuff out of R-E-S-P-E-C-T.Hithard26: Were the underdog in our own house which will fire us up and come out swinging on all cylinders, im expecting some trick plays from the TITANS. TITANS FTW 8-7
At first I thought 8-7 was a final score prediction (I later realized it was the hope for what the Titans record would be after the game). Too bad. An 8-7 final would be amazing.padres8991: It's up to the league to control this game. You have a coach involved that's proven to direct his players to injure opponents. The league directs who they want in the Super Bowl and they do so using the refs. I'm not saying to mail this game in and win the 2nd seed against Washington but it's NOT worth losing key players in this game so the Titans can "prove a point". Until Spanos moves the Charegrs to L.A. or San Diego builds a new stadium, the league will be against the Chargers. Just come out of the game healthy. Go Bolts!
Conspiracy theories are VERY San Diego sports. I love this one in particular. I just don't know that the league is that concerned with the affairs of the Chargers.
No supremely convincing arguments, so we've got to go with the Chargers for the ultimate crackpot theory. A fanbase that legitimately thinks the world is out to screw them is a motivated fanbase. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (7-8) He sees a tight game with Philip Rivers engineering a late two-minute drill to get the Chargers a 24-22 win.
- My pick. (6-9) The Titans have been a nice little Cinderella story, springing back from an 0-6 start to get to 7-7 and a shot at the playoffs. Only problem: If you look at their schedule, you instantly stop being impressed. Their seven wins have come against Jacksonville (who they also lost to earlier), San Francisco, Buffalo, Houston, Arizona, St. Louis and Miami. That's OK... but they didn't exactly dismantle any world-beaters there. I just don't think they're that good... and San Diego, while already in the playoffs, needs one more win to secure the two-seed and a first-round bye. I think the Chargers play motivated and win this.
This list was published on Friday, December 25, 2009 at 03:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at