11 Picks for NFL Week 10, Saints at Falcons
Published Friday, November 7, 2008 at 02:00:00 PM
Every week for the NFL season and playoffs, I use 11 different methods to predict one game. Even though this is a fairly small sample size, it's still cool to watch the trends. At least it is for me and my statistically-driven friend Nathan. I'm not sure if anyone else is quite as captivated.
The game we're picking this week is New Orleans at Atlanta. The line is Atlanta -0.5. We're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Friday, November 7, 2008 at 02:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, November 7, 2008 at 02:00:00 PM
Every week for the NFL season and playoffs, I use 11 different methods to predict one game. Even though this is a fairly small sample size, it's still cool to watch the trends. At least it is for me and my statistically-driven friend Nathan. I'm not sure if anyone else is quite as captivated.
The game we're picking this week is New Orleans at Atlanta. The line is Atlanta -0.5. We're all just picking the game straight up.
Accuscore. (2-7 on the season) The computer continues to do a horrible job picking games based on its simulation. This week, even though the line is basically even, it really likes the Falcons, 56 percent to 43 percent. (With, as usual, one percent missing.)
Accuscore likes the Falcons way more than the line would indicate.- Former NFL star Eric Allen. (3-6) His pick wasn't in by the time I published this. But if I know him, it's going to be the Falcons. Even though they're just a slight, slight favorite, that's more than enough for him. He always picks the favorite. I think for next season I'm going to need a better ex-NFL player for my panel.
Update: I was right, he did pick the Falcons. I may be awful at predicting NFL games, but I've completely cracked the code of Eric Allen. - Random number generator. (4-5) I use Random.org's coin flipper with the system heads is home team, tails is away team. It flipped tails, so it's going with the Saints.
- Homeless guy outside my office. (5-4) We only had a brief exchange, but it appears he now fully expects my Thursday football visits. He was read this week with a quick pick: The Saints. I told him that last week his Dolphins pick took him over .500, to 5-4. He was nonplussed, believing his record should be even higher than that.
Battle of the mascots. (6-3) This is a pretty easy one. Normally I'd take a human over a bird, because humans can just shoot birds (of course, if you miss, your dog laughs at you, but that's the risk you have to take). Except that a saint wouldn't shoot a falcon. He'd just stand there and let the falcon peck his eyes out because, if that's happening, it's God's will. Easy pick for the Falcons here.
A falcon pecks the hell out of a saint.- Adam, the early '90s fan. (5-4) Adam, my friend who hasn't followed football since he was in middle school, gave me two words for why the Falcons are going to beat the Saints: Deion Sanders. He fully expects "Neon" Deion to pick off Bobby Hebert at least two times on Sunday, and possibly to break a punt return for a touchdown.
- Fatter offensive line. (5-4) Both of the lines are pretty close, to the point where this is as much of a push as the Vegas line. While neither team breaks the magical 1,600-pound mark, they're both close. The five Saints O-linemen weigh 1,592 combined... the five Falcons linemen fall just six pounds short at 1,586. So the edge goes to the Saints, but it's close.
A model who may or may not know football. (7-2) This week, she's going with the Saints. Peter King (below) is going the other direction. Someone's gonna be 8-2 and in sole possession of first place next week.
Karmen, our model/expert.- Just picking the home team. (4-5) The NFL is incredibly unpredictable this season (as it has been for the past few years, thanks to ridiculous parity). So the "just pick the home team" method isn't working all that well. This week it's the Falcons, to try to get this method back up to .500.
- "Sports Illustrated" legend Peter King. (7-2) Peter King likes the upstart Falcons beating the Saints at home, 22 to 16. Last week I followed his pick and he got it wrong. So I'm back to being pissed at him.
- My pick. (3-6) I really don't know on this one. I've seen very little of either team. So I'm going to stop following my instincts (which have only been right one-third of the time this season) and pick randomly. Saints. There it is.
This list was published on Friday, November 7, 2008 at 02:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at