11 Results for My Second Season of 11 NFL Pick Methods
Published Sunday, February 14, 2010 at 07:45:00 AM
So my second season of NFL picks is in the books and I'm happy to say I didn't finish in last place. I finished in a tie for second-to-last place. (That was slightly worse than last year when I finished in third-to-last place. I'm... I'm not so good.)
For this entire NFL season and playoffs, I used the same 11 methods to predict one game every week (for a total of 21 weeks). Now... let's draw some wild conclusions based on a statistically-insignificant small sample size!
Here's how all the methods performed, ranked from best to worst.
This list was published on Sunday, February 14, 2010 at 07:45:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Sunday, February 14, 2010 at 07:45:00 AM
So my second season of NFL picks is in the books and I'm happy to say I didn't finish in last place. I finished in a tie for second-to-last place. (That was slightly worse than last year when I finished in third-to-last place. I'm... I'm not so good.)
For this entire NFL season and playoffs, I used the same 11 methods to predict one game every week (for a total of 21 weeks). Now... let's draw some wild conclusions based on a statistically-insignificant small sample size!
Here's how all the methods performed, ranked from best to worst.
ESPN's Sports Guy (13-8) - Well, my not-so-elaborate plan to use this weekly bit to deride ESPN's Sports Guy did not go so well. Thanks to a late charge -- and my parents' dog Laska fading in the playoffs -- he managed to secure sole possession of first place after the conference championships. He lost his Super Bowl pick, but it didn't matter. He'll be back for next year's picks to defend his title. Assuming he's still a columnist this time next year and hasn't given up because Boston's title drought has reached an unbearable two years.
- My parents' dog (12-9) - Having Laska involved definitely made this more exciting. My parents were actually legitimately upset when her late-season slide began and she fell out of contention. She'll be back next year, so we can determine whether her 12-9 record was luck... or whether she's a dog psychic. (My dad my genuinely believe the latter.)
- Madden 10 simulation (12-9) - I was a bit disappointed that Madden 10 ended up doing better than Tecmo Super Bowl. I blame @johnisello from Twitter -- once he took over running the Madden simulations for me toward the end of the regular season, the Madden pick was never wrong again. I'll probably use it next year too when it's Madden 11, mostly because I'll be uncontrollably attracted to their use of "11" in the title.
- Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (11-10) - Simulating the games in Tecmo Super Bowl on NES was definitely my favorite part of putting the picks together every week; even though it finished in a tie for fourth place, it will definitely be back next year. And hopefully the Raiders will show some signs of life so I can see Bo Jackson in action again. (Odds: 65,000-to-one.)
- Sports Illustrated's Peter King (11-10) - King did not repeat his victory from last year... I'm not sure I'll bring him back. I found his picks VERY boring and traditional... he was pretty much picking the safer bet every week. In this day and age of sportscasters yelling crazy opinions as loud as they can for attention, I should've found King refreshing... instead, I've found myself feeling like a Ralph Waldo Emerson in a Woody Paige world.
- Battle of the mascots (10-11) - This season I expanded the mascots into a best-of-three battle. I thought that had its moments and made for some good visuals, but probably went against the spirit of the battle. (And might've been too subjective for its own good.) Next season I'll probably take it back to a one-on-one matchup, although I might not just go with the literal interpretation of the mascots for that one-on-one. Because as much as I liked a Seahawk fighting a Ram, I liked the She-Ra and He-Man characters of Sea Hawk and Ram Man fighting a whole lot more.
- Accuscore (10-11) - Last year Accusore went 9-12 with its computer simulations, so this is a slight improvement. I like including the computer as one of the options each year -- even though it's not a sexy pick, it's a very different approach at the pick. Plus, eventually, I want to see it crack the .500 mark. You know, the day that Skynet becomes self-aware.
- Fair-weatherness of fans (9-12) - I thought this was a really interesting metric, although it took a lot of words to properly explain how I ran the statistical analysis on a week-to-week basis. No one wants to read a comedy website to get a brief summary on the process of determining a statistical variance. I'd love to bring it back next year but I'm not sure if it outlived its usefulness.
- More intelligent quarterback (9-12) - This was another good metric. I hadn't taken into account what I would do, though, if there was a quarterback who didn't take the Accuscore intelligence test... or what I would do if the quarterbacks tied. I should've just picked a Titans game every week, knowing Vince Young would lose whether or not I had the opposing QB's score on hand.
- My pick (9-12) - I just have no idea what went wrong. Pretty much everything. Of course I'll be back next year, but perhaps I'll use a different personal system for picking. Like which team do I hate less or which uniforms are prettier colors. Because the current strategy just isn't working.
- Internet commenter debate winner (8-13) - Thank God this came in last. I regretted coming up with this idea about two weeks in. Sifting through hundreds or thousands of message board posts was a terrible experience. I'm dumber for having done it. The pick also ended up being subjective and pointless. Now let us never speak of this again.
This list was published on Sunday, February 14, 2010 at 07:45:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at