11 Picks for NFL Week 6, Panthers at Buccaneers
Published Friday, October 10, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
I have strep throat right now. It's absurd. I've never had it before and somehow I got it at age 29. I figured the statute of limitations should've run out on it. Strep's a kid sickness. Like chicken pox or, in times past, rubella. As an adult I have a whole freaking slew of other diseases I have to worry about. Yes, chlamydia, I'm talking to you. I shouldn't also have to worry about strep throat.
That's totally irrelevant to today's NFL picks, but I figured that little spontaneous rant didn't deserve its own 11-item list, so I jammed it in the preamble here. Like a pork barrel rant.
Anyway, not a single one of my 11 experts survived five weeks with a perfect record. Both Karmen the model and SI's Peter King got last week's Washington at Philly game wrong, taking them both to 4-1.
This week, the game we're all picking is Carolina at Tampa Bay. The line is Tampa Bay -1.5, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Friday, October 10, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, October 10, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
I have strep throat right now. It's absurd. I've never had it before and somehow I got it at age 29. I figured the statute of limitations should've run out on it. Strep's a kid sickness. Like chicken pox or, in times past, rubella. As an adult I have a whole freaking slew of other diseases I have to worry about. Yes, chlamydia, I'm talking to you. I shouldn't also have to worry about strep throat.
That's totally irrelevant to today's NFL picks, but I figured that little spontaneous rant didn't deserve its own 11-item list, so I jammed it in the preamble here. Like a pork barrel rant.
Anyway, not a single one of my 11 experts survived five weeks with a perfect record. Both Karmen the model and SI's Peter King got last week's Washington at Philly game wrong, taking them both to 4-1.
This week, the game we're all picking is Carolina at Tampa Bay. The line is Tampa Bay -1.5, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Accuscore. (1-4 on the season) Accuscore runs tens of thousands of simulations of the game. So far it's really crapping the bed this season, with just a 1-4 record. It slightly favors the Panthers, 52 percent to 47 percent. It comes up one percent short pretty much every week. It's really making all computer-kind look bad.
Accuscore is giving a small edge to Carolina.- Former NFL star Eric Allen. (2-3) Eric Allen, former NFL cornerback, thinks the Panthers are going to win. I believe this is the first time in his life he's picked the team that's technically the underdog. I think next year I'm going to find a more ballsy, less chalk-oriented NFL expert.
- Random number generator. (1-4) I use Random.org's coin flipper to choose this pick. Heads home, tails away. It came up heads, so the random number generator is picking the Buccaneers.
- Homeless guy outside my office. (4-1) Fortunately, I was healthy enough to go in to the office this morning. The homeless guy was outside. He's picking the Panthers. I wasn't feeling well enough to stand there and try to get him to elaborate.
Battle of the mascots. (4-1) I've waffled back and forth on this a few times. I know that pirates have cannons and swords, but I feel like panthers are so fast and ferocious that they could dodge cannonballs and swiftly land a fatal blow before the pirate could parry and/or thrust. Although I think they might go for the legs, and, since pirates always have one wooden leg, there's a 50-50 shot the panther's strike would just hit wood. Such a tough call. I think, in the end, the Buccaneers win this battle... but I'm not thrilled about it.
A pirate beats a panther... but it is NOT a dominant performance.- Adam, the late '80s fan. (2-3) Adam stopped regularly watching football two years before the Carolina Panthers became a team. So, he told me, even though Tampa Bay is the laughing stock of the NFL, the Buccaneers have the edge over a team that doesn't actually exist.
- Fatter offensive line. (2-3) Very, very close battle here. Carolina's o-line has a combined weight of 1,567 pounds... Tampa Bay's line weighs a combined 1,548. That's really close but, under my theory that fatter offensive lines win football games, even that 19 pound edge is an edge... and this goes to the Panthers.
- A model who may or may not know football. (4-1) Karmen says she's "going with the Buccaneers."
- Just picking the home team. (1-4) I can't believe how bad this method has been so far this year. I mean, I know that I'm picking a toss up game every week, but you'd think home field advantage would be hitting better than 20 percent. Anyway, this week we'll see if the Buccaneers can break this trend.
- "Sports Illustrated" legend Peter King. (4-1) Peter King sees the Panthers dropping this one on the road, but then going on a huge winning streak. He's already looking past this game, and, I guess, he assumes they are too. His pick is the Buccaneers, 20 to 13..
- My pick. (2-3) As I think about the game, I just keep seeing it ending with a Panthers win. I believe in them for some reason. I'm not sure what that reason is, because I haven't watched any of their games or anything... but I believe. Get me back to .500 guys.
This list was published on Friday, October 10, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at