11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 10, Patriots at Colts

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11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 10, Patriots at Colts
Posted Saturday, November 14, 2009 at 03:00:00 PM

Each week, I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. Then, at the end of the season, I tally it up and see which method led to the most accurate picks.

For this week, the game is the New England Patriots at the Indianapolis Colts.

The line is Indianapolis -2.5, but we're all just picking the game straight up.

Battle of the mascots. (4-5) Here, I take three representations of each teams' mascot and have them battle it out. In the first fight it's the literal interpretation: A Revolutionary War patriot versus a lil' horse. And while muskets take a while to load and reload... a Patriot still easily takes out a colt, even if he has to use his bayonet.

The second matchup is the Jeep Patriot versus Colt 45 malt liquor. This one goes to the Colts -- as nice a ride as the Jeep is, you put down a few Colt 45s before you get in it and you're crashing that thing.

So the rubber match is a Patriot missile versus a Colt handgun. And as nice of a gun as it is... there's no way it loses to a missile. They're just not in the same league of weapons. So the Patriots take the battle of the mascots, 2-1.
ESPN's Sports Guy. (6-3) The Sports Guy loves the Patriots... I mean, weirdly, he never mentioned them before they started winning Super Bowls... but now you can't find a bigger fan. He's picking them to beat the Colts on the road.
Fair-weatherness of fans. (3-6) For this, I look at how each team has ranked in an annual Harris poll that asks NFL fans around the country to name their favorite team. I pick the winner based on how little their rank has varied -- assuming a smaller swing in popularity means more die-hard fans.

Both of these teams have seemingly embodied the word "bandwagon" over the past decade, so this one should be interesting.

The Patriots have had some very interesting swings -- they were 19th most popular in 2003... then jumped up to 3rd the next year. I guess in 2003 the Harris people just forgot to survey all of those super-loyal, "what do you mean I stopped following them?" Boston fans. Anyway, their statistical variance over the past 11 years is 36.61, 27th place in the NFL. Translation: Only five fan bases are more fair-weather than theirs.

Unfortunately for Indy... their fans are one of those bases. The Colts have come in as low as the 27th most popular team in the NFL (back in 1999)... and have gotten as high as the 2nd most popular (in 2007). That gives them a variance of 103.94 -- ranking them 32nd of all 32 teams. In other words, statistically, the Colts have the most fair-weather fans in the NFL. So the pick is the Patriots.
Madden 10 simulation. (3-6) Total domination by the Colts, 24-7. Brady had two interceptions in the red zone and Manning threw for 216 yards, two TDs and no INT.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (6-3) I use Tecmo Super Bowl, an 18-year-old game, to simulate the game each week. This week was an ugly and lopsided game. There were eight turnovers, including six interceptions, as the Patriots dominated the Colts, 23-0. It would've been even worse but New England's Irving Fryar fumbled at the one-yard line in the 4th quarter after a 50-yard catch.
More intelligent quarterback. (2-7) I look at the Wonderlic scores of each quarterback -- that's an intelligence test all players take before the draft -- and figure that the more intelligent quarterback should have an advantage.

New England's Tom Brady got a 33 out of 50, which is a pretty solid score for the league. Indy's Peyton Manning got a 28. So the pick is the Patriots.
My parents' dog. (6-3) Each week, my parents put two biscuits down, on opposite sides of a room; one biscuit represents each team. Then they let their dog, Laska, into the room, and see which biscuit she eats first. That's her pick.

This week is a definitive pick for the Colts. Usually, Laska eats one biscuit, then runs over and eats the other one right after. This week, Laska went in, ate the Colts biscuit... and still hasn't touched the New England biscuit. She doesn't want anything to do with it.
Accuscore. (5-4) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game, then uses the results to predict a winner. They see the Colts winning it five out of every nine times.
Internet commenter debate winner. (4-5) Here, I take brilliant comments from ESPN message board commenters and arrange their insights as a debate. Based on which fans make more convincing -- or, at least, less stupid -- arguments, I pick a winner.
castleisland3358: A quick look at the stats and this game is as even as can be. The Colt's have played a very light schedule. They've had to win several on final plays/final drives. But they seem to do it and are undefeated. So NE, going into Indy is the underdog. Stat. these two teams are as even as it goes. NE has a little better running game, Manning has thrown for a few more yards than Brady. I'm glad this is a prime time game on Sunday night. I can play all day, then sit down to what I expect to be a great game. If it's not obvious, I'm routing for NE
I didn't think it was obvious at all.
gmencometh: This game will come down to the Wire! Whoever has the ball last will win this shoot-out! I am looking at - Colts - 31 Pats - 27
Oh man, that's bad cliche rhetoric. The scary part is, this was one of the best quotes I found on behalf of the Colts. I looked through 500+ comments. Colts fans are terrible at shit talking.
jakebruins2459: # wow, this is gonna be another pit-bull fight, i don't condone dog fighting btw it's just a fun term to use, the pats will most likely win AGAIN. i hope the colts don't close the roof and cheat, i would like to see them play in foxboro in mid january, outdoor ball is the best, domes are for pu****
I love this comment. The weird hedging about dog fighting, calling a domed stadium cheating, not having enough asterisks to finish off "pussies." This is a classic Internet argument in every way.
Colts18to44and87: why did almost knowone pick the Colts to win their division this YR, knowone really picked them to win 12 games outside of Indy either? I seen a few of the experts pick them 3rd, behind Tenn and Houston, Peter King from cnnsi picked Houston to win the division, Chadia from ESPN said the Colts wouldnt be as good as last Yr and had them 10th in his rankings at the beginning of the YR. All I know is I seen alot of 9-7/10-6 predictions for them, so not anyone just picked them to win 12 games, I did though.
Knowone believed in us!

This pick is easily the Patriots -- their fans were louder, more prevalent, more obnoxious and more boorish on the message board. After are, they are slightly more loyal than the Colts fans, right?
Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (5-4) He's seeing a back-and-forth game that ends late with Brady pulling it out for the Patriots, 30-26.
My pick. (3-6) I am fairly surprised how many people are going against the Colts here. New England feels very smoke-and-mirrors to me... I think the Colts win. And no, this isn't just because of my seething hatred of all Boston sports teams.