11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 3, Broncos at Raiders

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11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 3, Broncos at Raiders
Posted Saturday, September 26, 2009 at 12:00:00 PM

Week 3 and there's not a single clear favorite in the NFL.

For those who have never been here before, each week, I use 11 different methods to predict the winner of one NFL game. At the end of the season, we see which one was most effective. (Catch up on week 1 and week 2 if you'd like!)

This week's game is the Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders. The line is Oakland -0.5, but we're all just picking the game straight up.

Battle of the mascots. (1-1) This is a pretty good battle. Broncos are wilder than horses, and raiders are less disciplined than regular pirates. I thought about this a lot and, ultimately, hearkened back to the scene in "Conan the Barbarian" where Conan slices off a horse's legs. I think the bronco would buck and kick his way into a good fight, but as soon as the raider got his weaponry involved, it'd be over.

This becomes closer if you battle OJ's white Ford Bronco against contestants from MTV's "Room Raiders"... but, ultimately, I think the Ford Bronco runs out of gas and today's youth are so hopped up on energy drinks and lack of boundaries that they just keep going and going. Pick is the Raiders.

ESPN's Sports Guy. (2-0) He's going with the Broncos, who he's touting as his before-the-season sleeper pick.

The following statement is going to come up a lot over the course of this list: The Broncos two wins came (1) on a miracle finish against Cincinnati and (2) against the Browns. So let's not start telling Broncos fans to book early February trips to Miami just yet.

Fair-weatherness of fans. (1-1) For this pick, I look at poll results from the past 11 years, where fans ranked their two favorite NFL teams. Then, I look at how widely each team's rank has swung (the variance, statistically speaking). Whichever team has a smaller swing, and, therefore, more all-weather fans, wins this.

Unfortunately for Broncos fans, the data I have goes back to 1998, right when Elway was winning his Super Bowls and helping Bronco fair-weatherness peak. The Broncos were the fourth-most popular team that year, but have swung as low as 17th, for a variance of 23.277. That's 20th place overall in the NFL.

The Raiders fans, God love 'em, haven't abandoned this team, even though it's among the most mismanaged franchises in pro sports. Unfortunately, the trendiness of the Raiders peaks and valleys, bringing casual fans in from time to time... and that seemed to mess things up. They've swumg everywhere from third-most popular to 19th, for a variance of 25.528... 22nd overall in the NFL. So the pick is the Broncos.

I have a Raider just getting past a Bronco.

Madden 10 simulation. (1-1) In one of the worst simulated games in the history of simulated games, the Raiders destroyed the Broncos, 26 to zero. Jamarcus Russell hit Darius Heyward-Bay with a 62-yard touchdown pass late in the third quarter to really put it away. Kyle Orton had 105 yards passing and two interceptions.

So Madden 10, with its up-to-the-minute rosters and ultra-realistic football AI, thinks it's going to be a Raiders blowout. Will Super Tecmo Bowl, with its 18-year-old rosters and 8-bit sophistication, agree?
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (1-1) Not gonna lie... a huge portion of my motivation for picking this game was to see the Raiders do their thing in Tecmo Super Bowl. Fans of the game know why: The programmers made Bo Jackson the single greatest athlete in video game history.

What I didn't take into consideration: It's the Raiders. So, for some ungodly reason, the computer handed off 18 times... but only EIGHT of those were to Jackson. The other 10 carries went to Marcus Allen... no slouch, but he's no Bo. Bo had 100 yards and a touchdown on eight carries; Allen had 61 yards and no touchdowns on 10 carries. Yikes.

Couple that with some shoddy defense (even Bob "The RA from Saved By The Bell: The College Years" Golic couldn't keep Bobby Humphrey from gaining more ground yards than Jackson) and Denver squeaked out a come-from-behind 21-20 victory. The pick is the Broncos because the computer simulated the Raiders a little TOO accurately... and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
More intelligent quarterback. (0-2) For this measure, I look at the scores that each teams' starting QB got on the Wonderlic test. It's a 50-question intelligence test that's given before the draft; I figure that the more intelligent the quarterback, the better off the team is.

It's a close battle this week. Denver's Kyle Orton (ha) scored a 26... Oakland's Jamarcus Russell scored a 24. So the pick is the Broncos, but by a very slight margin.
My parents' dog. (2-0) We'd been a little worried about Laska's pick... because for the previous two weeks, she just ran for the biscuit on the left. This week, my parents put one biscuit on the left side of the room representing Denver, and one on the right side of the room representing Oakland. Here's what happened, according to my dad:
Laska picked Oakland over Denver. Mom set up the biscuits, Denver left, Oakland right. I walked with the dog on heel to dead center, 15 feet away. She picked Oakland. So, she doesn't have a left bias, very important. Call later if you have a chance.
Phew! Left bias concerns are averted. She picked the Raiders.
Accuscore. (1-1) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game, then picks a winner based on its findings. Close one here, but the Broncos get their pick, 51 percent to 47 percent. I guess two percent were ties... which seems extremely high.
Internet commenter debate winner. (1-1) For this pick, I select intelligent thoughts on the game from the world's most intelligent people: Sports message board commenters. I lay the comments out as a debate, analyze the arguments, and pick a game winner based on information gleaned. Here are the four comments on Denver-Oakland from ESPN:
CRmeloman: Russel is a horrible quarterback but Orton is very frusterating also. Denver NEEDS to come to terms with marshall and let him have a big game along with running the ball and managing the clock. The way that the Defense has palyed thus far this season, I dont think that Russel is going to have a great game and the Broncos are going to do just enough to win this one. Broncos 20 Raiders 10

gocowboysbuffs: On any given Sunday, the team with the most will and determination wins. This is the week for my RAIDAZ to respond and make a statement in the AFC west and get our 2-1 rec. in our div. After watching the K.C. game.... I'm sorry J.R. but you gotta step yo game up homeboy. The O-line gave you the time, but you didn't give your recievers the chance to make plays for you. Get your timing down and use Zach Miller as much as you want. Move the chains doggy and our Defense will have enough left to finish the game and get the Victory that RAIDER NATION deserves at home. Put this team on your shoulders and b the Leader and the player I enjoyed watching at LSU. Let's do this J.R. RAIDAZ 4 LIFE BABY!!!!! That is just it, he was overrated at LSU and is and will be nothing in the NFL period. A wasted pick. The owner set the Raiders back 4 years with that pick. Time for Davis to step down and let someone else in the family take over.

hitalot04: wow espn is so stupid when it comes to predictions, they said broncos where underdogs ever game this season so wow raiders fans like i care and oh underdogs and then win by 20 yeah i think i will go with espn predictions from now on

gatoloco13: we are a real team and you will feel them come Sunday fOOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!! don't count my raiders out, we have something for you Denver, my forecast is lots of Seymour,brown,Morris ,Ellis and huff and forget about going deep,cuze asomugha will take care of you guys then we'll run McFadden,bush and fargas all day ,then we are going to rain on you with Russell ,heyward-bey,Higgins ,Murphy,miller and walker,yes sirRRRRRRRRRR. RAIDERSSSSSSSSSSSSSS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!
OK. CRmeloman makes some interesting, albeit tragically spelled, points. He's a Broncos fan but doesn't seem that high on his squad... still, he's way less high on the Raiders and closes with a definitive pick.

Gocowboysbuffs begins with a sentence that's bowing under the weight of cliches: "On any given Sunday the team with the most will and determination wins." Are you sure? What if they don't give 110 percent? He rambles a bit after that, and, while he loves the Raiders, he seems very, very down on Russell as the quarterback. Still, he thinks that the Raiders will just want more, will play all four quarters and are true National Football League football players, so they should win.

Hitalot04 seems more focused on ESPN's picks than the game. Not sure where the outrage comes from though... as I said earlier, Denver's two wins weren't exactly world beaters. Not exactly great opponents or monster victories in either case.

Following those three weak arguments, Gatoloco13 steps it up. Although the name "Heyward-Bey" just doesn't roll off the tongue when you're talking shit.

The pick is the Raiders, for more focused arguments using way more capital letters.
Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (1-1) Here's what he had to say:
I'll never forget Josh McDaniels' sentiments last March, when all the Jay Cutler mayhem was swirling around his team and he was being pilloried around Denver for being a rube who didn't realize what a great thing he had in this franchise quarterback. At the end of the day, he told me, the only thing that matters is winning; if we win starting in September, no one will care about this stuff. He's having an early last laugh here.

Prediction: Denver Broncos 16, Oakland Raiders 12
As I've now said repeatedly, so far Denver has beaten the Browns and Bengals... and they needed a miracle for one of those wins. Josh McDaniels isn't laughing at anyone yet.
My pick. (1-1) I don't have any real faith in either team... but, from what I've seen, Oakland seems to be playing a bit more inspired this season than they have for years. So I'm going with the Raiders. And no, this isn't just residual resentment from what the Broncos did to the Cleveland Browns many decades ago.