11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 5, Falcons at 49ers
Published Sunday, October 11, 2009 at 09:00:00 AM
Every week, I use 11 different methods to predict the winner of one NFL game. Then, at the end of the season, I add it all up and see which methods did the best.
This week's game is the 2-1 Atlanta Falcons at the 3-1 San Francisco 49ers. The line is the Niners -2.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Sunday, October 11, 2009 at 09:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Sunday, October 11, 2009 at 09:00:00 AM
Every week, I use 11 different methods to predict the winner of one NFL game. Then, at the end of the season, I add it all up and see which methods did the best.
This week's game is the 2-1 Atlanta Falcons at the 3-1 San Francisco 49ers. The line is the Niners -2.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (1-3) So, just like last week, I've taken three versions of falcons and matched them up against three versions of niners.
So many falcons versus so many niners.
In the battle of the literal mascots, I think a falcon takes out an 1800s prospector. Because the falcon would be clawing and pecking him to death while the guy said things like "Dagnabbit!" and tried frantically to pick up his scattering gold nuggets.
When it comes to the Ford Falcon versus a Niner-brand bike, the car easily wins. American cars used to be so tough, and while the Niner bikes are made with space-age technology and cost a fortune, the Ford Falcon would absolutely destroy one in a head-on collision.
Finally, we have Falcon, the first-ever black superhero (which is why you've never heard of him) against Niners, the nickname of the fans of "Star Trek: Deep Space 9". (They took the nickname after an episode of "Deep Space 9" featuring a baseball team with that name.) Again, no contest: A superhero beats a "Star Trek" fan every time... especially fans of a weird, late-to-the-party "Star Trek" spinoff. Falcons sweep it.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (4-0) The Sports Guy is the only undefeated person in this place. Even more frighteningly, I found myself completely agreeing with the point he raised about this game: "Strangest line of the week. So strange that it makes me nervous. You get 3 points for being at home. I believe San Francisco is slightly better than Atlanta; at the very least, it's dead even. So why 2.5 and not 3?" He's going with the Niners.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (2-2) For this method, I look at the popularity rankings of each team for the past 11 years, based on the results of an annual Harris poll. Then I measure how wildly the scores vary -- figuring that the less they vary, the more loyal the fans are. And, with such loyal fans in their corner, that team should win.
The Falcons haven't ever scored that high on the popularity chart -- never more than the 18th most popular team in the leauge -- but they've also never scored lower than 27th. The statistical variance is small, only 17, good for the 10th most loyal fans in the league.
Unfortunately for them, they've run up against Bay Area fans... who are notoriously loyal (even when their teams aren't doing well). The Niners have been as popular as 2nd in the NFL, and only dropped as low as 11th, for a variance of 10.5. That gives the Niners the 7th most loyal fans in the league and the win in this method this week.
Madden 10 simulation. (1-3) Each week I run the game through Madden 10, with its up-to-the-second rosters and ultra-realistic gameplay. Close one this week, but the Niners pulled it out, 24-21, thanks to an 80-yard drive with one minute to go... and a field goal with two seconds left.
Shaun Hill was 18/30 with 226 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT; Matt Ryan went 18/23 for 217 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. The key was San Francisco shutting down Michael Turner -- 18 carries for 30 yards and no touchdowns.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (3-1) In comparison to Madden 10's up-to-the-second rosters, Tecmo Super Bowl has rosters that are 18 years old. And back then... the 49ers were almost impossible to beat. In my simulation, the Falcons could barely get anything going offensively (only one touchdown, by Andre Rison)... and Joe Montana ate up their defense, getting three TD passes (including two to Jerry Rice). Even Matt Millen got a sack in. Niners won it in a blowout, 28-7.
- More intelligent quarterback. (1-3) Every player takes an intelligence test called the Wonderlic before they're drafted. My theory here: The more intelligent the quarterback, the better off the team should be. Shaun Hill of the 49ers got a 25 out of 50 on the Wonderlic... pretty good for an NFL player. But Matt Ryan of Atlanta beat him badly, getting a 32 -- tops for his entire draft class. So the pick is the Falcons.
- My parents' dog. (3-1) My parents have started actively rooting for the team that their dog, Laska, picks every week -- I guess they need to see SOME kind of football victory back home in Cleveland.
This week, Laska took the biscuit that represented the Niners, so they're her pick.
Accuscore. (3-1) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations to predict the winner of each game. They really like the Niners here -- much more than Vegas does with such a close line -- seeing them win 56 percent of the time.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (2-2) For this, I find game analysis from the world's most intelligent and rational people: Internet sports message board commenters. Then I stage a debate and determine who won.
jagermeister650: WILLIS and CLEMENTS are going to intimidate MATT RYAN. BRUCE and DAVIS are going to stun the falcons worthless defence. im planning on watching a shutout. Lets go niners!!!!! lets show the league how good we can play the game.
Quoting Herm Edwards? Spelling "defence" like a British person? Shouting out Isaac Bruce? All very unusual debate tactics. Let's see if it works.
WE PLAY THE GAME TO WIN THE GAME!!!
THATS IT!!!
WE PLAY THE GAME TO WIN THE GAME!!!
NO.........
WE PLAY THE GAME TO WIN THE GAME!!!
ITS AS SIMPLE AS THAT!!!!!!!Jenner95: The Falcons have only played 3 games.....so I guess SF really has our #!.....lmao!!! ATL is 2-1 and could have beat NE, if they didn't have the zebras on their payroll.
Hmm, this guy also shouts out some unusual players. He also has some beef with the way Patriots games are reffed, which is quickly becoming as boring as people complaining about Barry Bonds being on steroids. I'm not convinced.
Atl has had a week to rest and NOW Jerius Norwood will be back, Ty Hill and Moore to finally start @CB too. SanFran, you don't know whats coming!!!!deeboyy22: a rap 4 da 49ers:
Ooh, the Niners fans had a chance to put it away... and came with this. E-40 would be rolling around in his grave if he was dead. This rap definitely made him drop his thizz face though.
da 49ers gna win dis game
cannot stopped by anyone
we rep da bay area
patrick willy leads our d
9er fans kno wat i mean
wen we beat da falcons
hu r weak by da way atl
got nothin on da bay!!!!atler5264: Quit trying to rap...especially if your from San Fran or the Bay Area! ATL is where all the rap artists such as Ludacris, Lil' Jon do their thing!
The Falcons fans can't close the door. No one brags about Lil' Jon being from their city. At least go with T.I. The Niners fans, somehow, pull out the debate win for their team. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (3-1) King likes Mike Singletary's coaching, and thinks San Francisco is for real... he's picking the Niners to beat the Falcons, 20-16.
- My pick. (2-2) Everyone seems to love the Niners, but I'm not as sold. Without Gore, they have no running game... the defense looked great against the Rams, but I'm pretty sure the Texas State Armadillos could look great against them... the Falcons haven't really turned on the Ryan/Turner/White/Gonzalez switch yet... and, most importantly, just because the Niners are in an incredibly weak division doesn't mean they're legitimately good. I see the Falcons taking this one pretty handily.
This list was published on Sunday, October 11, 2009 at 09:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
