11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 8, Vikings at Packers
Published Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 02:00:00 PM
Every week, I use 11 different methods to predict the winner of an NFL game. At the end of the season, we add it all up and see which of these methods did the best job. It's the joy of small sample sizes!
This week's game is one of the most anticipated games of the season: Brett Favre's return to Green Bay... but as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. I think I was contractually obligated to do it.
The line is Packers -3.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 02:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 02:00:00 PM
Every week, I use 11 different methods to predict the winner of an NFL game. At the end of the season, we add it all up and see which of these methods did the best job. It's the joy of small sample sizes!
This week's game is one of the most anticipated games of the season: Brett Favre's return to Green Bay... but as a member of the Minnesota Vikings. I think I was contractually obligated to do it.
The line is Packers -3.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (3-4) In the best of three, the first battle is no contest: A Viking is just too tough for a meat packer. The meat packer's best bet is to try to trick the Viking into eating mad cow beef or something, but I don't see it happening.
A Viking range against Billy Packer is a more interesting battle. Billy Packer could just unplug it... but he's so out of it that I don't even think he'd have the wherewithal to do that. Still, he's got enough money to hire someone to unplug it for him, so this matchup goes to the Packers.
We're tied 1-1 going into the decisive third mascot battle: A Viking romance novel against a novel about meat packing. As much as I respect the strange romance novel genre thing, you gotta go with the famous work of literature and not a rag.
So even after losing the battle of the traditional mascots, the Packers manage to pull this out.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (5-2) He sees the Vikings winning, 34-24, because the Green Bay crowd is way too tense.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (2-5) For this measure, I look at the teams' popularity scores over the past 11 years in an annual Harris poll. The less the scores have fluctuated, the more loyal are their fans. And, buying into the whole "12th man" thing, I pick the winner based on the more loyal fans.
The Vikings peaked in popularity as the 7th most popular team (in 1999) and have dropped as low as 21st (in 2006). That's a statistical variance of 22.69, or 19th place overall in the NFL.
The Green Bay Packers have a lot of casual fans... but their true fans are ultra loyal. In the past 11 years, they've been the most popular team four times... and never lower than fifth. That's a variance of 2.53, good for second place in the NFL... making them the obvious winner here.
Madden 10 simulation. (2-5) I use Madden 10, with its up-to-the-second rosters, to simulate the game ever week. This week was a thriller in the pouring rain in Lambeau.
The teams went to overtime, tied 14-14... and the game ended with Adrian Peterson busting out a 68-yard touchdown run, during which he broke approximately 200 tackles. Final: Vikings 20, Packers 14.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (5-2) Of course, back when Tecmo Super Bowl came out, it was in the pre-Favre era... but not to fear, because they had Don "The Magic Man" Majkowski. He, Perry Kemp Sterling Sharpe were able to piece together a win for the Packers in a turnover-plagued game, 20-14. Same score as the Madden 10 game, just with the other team winning. Once again Madden 10 and Tecmo Super Bowl disagree. And so far this season when that's happened -- Tecmo tends to be correct.
- More intelligent quarterback. (2-5) Before the NFL draft, every prospect takes a 50-question test called the Wonderlic. Quarterbacks' scores are always leaked, because of the theory that a smarter quarterback is going to win games.
Brett Favre got a 22 out of 50 on the Wonderlic, which is pretty below average. Aaron Rodgers got a 35, which is well above average. No wonder the Packers decided to keep him over Favre! Pick is the Packers. - My parents' dog. (4-3) For this pick, my parents put two biscuits on opposite sides of the room, with one representing each team. Then they put the family dog, Laska, in the room. Whichever biscuit Laska chooses to eat first represents the winner.
Well... usually, Laska eats one biscuit, then runs over and eats the other. But this time she ate the Vikings biscuit then hung around, licked the floor under it, took her time... and then, finally got around to the Green Bay biscuit. So her pick is the Vikings by a ton.
Accuscore. (4-3) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game and uses that to pick a winner. Here they just slightly favor Green Bay, 51 percent to 48 percent. So the pick is the Packers.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (3-4) For this method, I find comments from people on ESPN's SportsNation... arrange them as a debate... and pick a winner based on whomever makes the stronger case. Actually some decent discourse this week...
jhilch: This is going to be another awesome game and it will be 1000 times better knowing favre will destroy the packers again and this time in green bay. the way the packers and their fans treated favre I hope favre goes to speak in canton, ohio wearing his viking uniform with a purple cheese head
OK, it's the necessary shit talking, but it's good. It's deep, it's layered and it even throws in the innovative "purple cheese head" wrinkle. Good opening salvo for the Vikings.birdmancom17: Well, I guess Packers will win this game, 45-2, Favre brokes his leg, AP broke his arm, and the Defense got lock up in jail, keep wishing cheesehead and see if that comes true. That's about the only way your team will beat the Vikes. Keep living in the past.
My favorite part about this guy is that he's willing to spot the Vikings a safety. Weird. Who predicts their team will only allow a safety?Jakepredmond_18: I haven't heard Vikings fans this confident since the 1999 NFC Championship game!!!!!! We all know how that turned out.
OK. As good as the purple cheese head shit talking is, I do like throwing this back at the Vikings. It's arguable over which fan base is more torn up.packers04_bf: title town is GREEN BAY....whats the name of the trophy....green bay is the nfl....12 to 6.....title town!!!! stick to the pirates!!!!
Another weird score prediction. 12 to 6? I'm so confused. So he sees this being mostly field goals (or blocked extra points)? All of these fans have a lot of weird theories on football scores.
A good battle but, ultimately, I'm giving it to the Vikings, whose fans are in stronger shit talking position because of the freshness of the Green Bay fans' wounds they're salting. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (4-3) Peter King is legendary for his Brett Favre hard-on. And, right on cue, he picks the Vikings to win.
- My pick. (3-4) I just don't see the Packers losing in Favre's return. No matter how I envision the game, the Packers come out on top.
This list was published on Saturday, October 31, 2009 at 02:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at