11 Picks For 2009 NFL Week 9, Steelers at Broncos
Published Saturday, November 7, 2009 at 03:00:00 PM
Every week, I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. At the end of the season I add it all up and see which method made the most accurate predictions.
This week, the game is the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Denver Broncos. The line is Pittsburgh -2.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Published Saturday, November 7, 2009 at 03:00:00 PM
Every week, I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. At the end of the season I add it all up and see which method made the most accurate predictions.
This week, the game is the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Denver Broncos. The line is Pittsburgh -2.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Three steelers against three broncos.
In the second matchup we have the obscure '80s metal band Steeler against the obscure '50s/'60s TV western "Bronco." This one's debatable -- no one's really ever heard of either -- but the edge has to go to Steeler for one simple reason. Their band featured a young Yngwie Malmsteen... who'd go on to be a legend; Bronco only lasted 68 episodes and didn't produce anything memorable at all. So it's now 2-0 Steelers, they have this wrapped up.
We'll play out the string and match up the "G.I. Joe" character Steeler against OJ Simpson's white Ford Bronco. This matchup does go to the Broncos; as much as I like anyone from G.I. Joe in a battle, they only kill enemies of America... and OJ'll kill anyone. Still, the Steelers win this battle, 2-1.
- ESPN's Sports Guy. (6-2) The Sports Guy is picking the Broncos to win at home. To his credit, he was on the Broncos bandwagon before the season started... unlike everyone else who hopped on after they won five games.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (2-6) For this pick, I look at the popularity scores of the teams, based on their rankings in an annual Harris poll for the past 11 years. Then I see how wildly the rank has varied. My thought: Less variation equals more loyal fans which equals that elusive 12th man advantage.
Like many teams that had some great success a decade ago then fell on harder times, the Broncos struggle here. Back in 1998, riding high off the Elway Super Bowl retirement tour, they were the fourth most popular team in the league. By 2003 they were ranked 17th. They've been between the 9th and 16th range since... giving their popularity rank a statistical variance of 23.28, good for 20th place in the NFL.
The Steelers have a rabidly loyal local fan base... but many, many fans elsewhere who come and go. They've been as popular as 1st, back in 2006... but as low as 15th just one year earlier. While they have many high finishes, the people jumping off the bandwagon in the early '00s hurts. The Steelers have a statistical variance of 18.19, though... good for 15th in the NFL, right in the middle of the pack... and the win here.- Madden 10 simulation. (3-5) Very close one. The Broncos went up by three with one minute left in the game after a 50-yard pass from Kyle Orton to Daniel Graham. The Steelers mounted a last-second drive down the field... Rashard Mendenhall got free and started heading for the goal line... but the Broncos forced him to fumble on the one-yard line and recovered to win the game, 17-14.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (5-3) Here, I want to see if Tecmo Super Bowl's 18-year-old rosters can do as good of a/better job than Madden 10's rosters at picking the games.
This week was an ugly, turnover-ridden battle -- five turnovers in the first quarter alone. In the end, the Steelers managed to slop out a 14-10 win.- More intelligent quarterback. (2-6) Before the NFL draft, every player takes a 50-question intelligence test called the Wonderlic. The quarterbacks' scores always get leaked. Operating under the theory that a smarter quarterback is better, I pick the winner based on the starting quarterbacks' Wonderlic scores.
Ben Roethlisberger on the Steelers got a 25/50 on the test coming out of school in 2004... Kyle Orton on the Broncos just beat him, getting a 26. So the pick is the Broncos by one trivia question.- My parents' dog. (5-3) Each week, my parents set two dog biscuits on opposite sides of the room; each biscuit represents a team. Then they set their dog, Laska, into the room, and record which biscuit she eats (representing the winner).
Normally, she goes into the room and makes a mad dash for one of the biscuits. This week was different. They put her in the room, she paused, assessed the situation, looked at both biscuits... then ate the Steelers biscuit with a purpose. So it's Laska definitively picking Pittsburgh.
Accuscore. (4-4) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations to predict the winner of the game. This week it sees the Steelers winning fairly solidly, 58 percent to 41 percent.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (4-4) Here, I let the fans debate it out on ESPN's message boards -- because message board fans are the real knowledgeable fans. I pick some of the more insightful comments, arrange them as a debate, and then declare a winner. For this week...
dnsdps: The donkeys have come back to earth. We all knew Denver was not a 6-0 quality team. Steelers are gonna slap 'e, around. We start our march for SB #7, while Denver starts the beginning of their downward spiral.
This was a fairly common line of attack against the Broncos: their fast start was a fluke, the Ravens exposed them last week, they don't have a chance. Also, I'd never heard the derisive nickname "Donkeys" until I started reading NFL message boards for this bit. Because I would NEVER read NFL message boards for fun.broncofaninhawaii: Damn u pit fans are idiots. I have been on every blog every week and u guys talk the most s.hit, real classy. Hope all u come back monday nite and talk, bet u wont be here hahaha. Denver gonna get this game for sure. But to everyone else including pit fans that actually have some NFL knowledge and speaks it, good luck, this gonna be a great game. to u s.hit talkers see u monday nite,aloha
I like that he followed through on his Hawaii gimmick with the final "aloha" salvo. In general, he doesn't talk about the game, just expresses his annoyance with people talking shit on message boards. I hear ya, bra. Those people are NOT hanging 10 with me.mammal365: Denver just lost and is down because of that. The Steelers beat Minnisota, who was undefited at the time; and the steelers just had a bye week. Steelers are much more ready for this game. And some one said to name someone on the Steelers roster that is a better WR then Denver? Last time I Checked, the number 1 reciever in the NFL is on the Steelers.
My beef isn't with the dozens of spelling mistakes... it's with saying the number one receiver in the NFL is on the Steelers. I mean... really? Who are we even talking about here? Ward?Spt378: "the number 1 reciever in the NFL is on the Steelers"? when was the last time you checked? I assume you are talking about Ward. Does he lead the league in rec, yds, TD's? the answer to that is no in all catagories. I would say he is 4th or 5th in the league. Don't let your loyalty get in the way of the facts.
And this guy agrees with me. I think he's even too generous saying that Ward is the 4th or 5th best receiver in the league. And in the end, the Broncos fans had more rational comments (including both the ones cited here and on the board in general)... so they're getting the call.- Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (5-3) He's picking the Broncos to win at home, 20-13, thanks to their crazy blitzing defense. I'm a bit surprised by his pick... he's an old school guy and the Steelers are an old school kind of team.
- My pick. (3-5) I'm just not sold on the Steelers. They're still going through the motions that a contender goes through, which is good enough to beat the weak teams and win a few games against decent teams... but they're definitely not the same team as last year. Meanwhile, Denver keeps on surprising people and I don't see them losing a big Monday Night Football game at home. So I'm going with the Broncos.
Overall tallies: Broncos 6, Steelers 5. Updated records next week.
This list was published on Saturday, November 7, 2009 at 03:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
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- ESPN's Sports Guy. (6-2) The Sports Guy is picking the Broncos to win at home. To his credit, he was on the Broncos bandwagon before the season started... unlike everyone else who hopped on after they won five games.