11 Picks For 2010 NFL Week 1, Falcons at Steelers
Published Saturday, September 11, 2010 at 05:00:00 PM
The weekly NFL picks are back! Some people love 'em, some people hate 'em, but either way they're going up every Friday or Saturday because I'm addicted to them.
We have some new methods this season, some that are different than last year's, some that are the same. (And the battle of the mascots is gone. As much as I liked it, I feel like it jumped the shark last year.)
For those new to the building, each week I use 11 different methods to predict one NFL game. I keep running tallies and, at the end of the season, we revel in the results of a small sample size and crown a winner.
This week's inaugural game is the Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers. The opening line was Atlanta -2, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, September 11, 2010 at 05:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, September 11, 2010 at 05:00:00 PM
The weekly NFL picks are back! Some people love 'em, some people hate 'em, but either way they're going up every Friday or Saturday because I'm addicted to them.
We have some new methods this season, some that are different than last year's, some that are the same. (And the battle of the mascots is gone. As much as I liked it, I feel like it jumped the shark last year.)
For those new to the building, each week I use 11 different methods to predict one NFL game. I keep running tallies and, at the end of the season, we revel in the results of a small sample size and crown a winner.
This week's inaugural game is the Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers. The opening line was Atlanta -2, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (0-0) Last year, I simulated all of the games in 1991's classic NES game Tecmo Super Bowl. It was the biggest hit of all, so it's back. (Especially when it can be contrasted to Madden's up-to-the-second roster and player rating adjustments.)
Atlanta really dominated this game -- Bubby Brister and the Pittsburgh passing attack only managed 10 yards. If it wasn't for the special teams, Pittsburgh would've been scoreless (a kickoff return TD and two field goals). Atlanta basically controlled the entire time and took care of it easily, 24-13. So the pick is the Falcons.- Madden 11 simulation. (0-0) I actually have Madden 11, so I got to simulate this game myself. And it was so amazingly boring that I actually fell asleep in the middle. So while I have no idea how we totally got here, the Steelers won 14-7 on the strength of two long Rashard Mendenhall touchdown runs. Seriously long runs. It's as if he's the running back for Coach Kilmer and the only time he gets into the endzone is if he breaks one.
- Laska, my parents' dog. (0-0) Last year, Laska tied for second place, at 12-9. And since all the hype this summer over the World Cup predictin' octopus made people more and more accepting of animals picking sports outcomes, it was a no-brainer having her back.
This week Laska selected the Steelers. She ate the treat corresponding to them, then walked over to the Atlanta treat, hovered over it for a while, looked at it confused, then finally ate it. Perhaps she still think Michael Vick is a Falcon and resents them?
Accuscore. (0-0) This method is somewhat vanilla but I think it's a good counterpoint. Instead of going with hype or gut feelings or speculation, a computer just simulates the game thousands of times and predicts a winner. This week the computer ever so slightly favors the Steelers, 50 percent to 49 percent. (With one percent disappearing into some kind of mathematics black hole.)
- ESPN's Sports Guy. (0-0) Last season, ESPN's beloved Sports Guy did the best of any of my methods, going 13-8 on the year. He's back this year, defending his title over here, and he chose the Falcons to both win and cover the spread. Man I hope he eats it this season.
- 11 Points Reader Battle. (0-0) A new feature this year! Each week, three 11 Points readers will make a prediction. The pick will be based on whichever team gets the majority of their votes. (Plus, anyone who picks successfully will be back to pick the following week.)
This week we welcome @dude_1818, @campbelliah and my buddy @pat_stack (who happens to be a lifelong Steelers fan) to make the inaugural picks.
dude_1818: "I think the Steelers will win, since [they're] 11-2 with Falcons, winning every game against them in the past four years. Only team worse for the Falcons is the Colts, at 13-1. Atlanta is screwed."
campbelliah: "Atlanta. Reason 1: Dennis Dixon. Reason 2: I'm, uh, kinda drinking the Bill Simmons Kool-Aid that ATL will be good."
pat_stack: "Take PIT: underestimated QB Dixon who actually knows system very well + Polamalu returning + home field + improved O line"
So with two votes, the Steelers are the reader pick for the first week.
Internet psychic. (0-0) I wanted to get a real psychic this year and I found one. He lives in India, he goes by the name "Psychic Love Guru 7", and he costs me $1.99 for an online chat. Also, he's dreamy.
Our spiritual guide for the season.
Because no psychic would actually predict games for me outright -- they much, much prefer to offer up vague predictions about love and career -- I had to hide this within another question. So I asked him...
"I'm thinking about my career. I currently feel at home as a steel worker, but I have the urge to spread my wings like a falcon elsewhere. What should I do?"
And after procrastinating for 61 seconds, he went with spread my wins. So the psychic is going with the Falcons.- Randier cheerleaders. (0-0) A new feature for this year, based off the suggestion by a loyal reader named Erik. For each game, I'm going to compare the teams' cheerleaders and their photos on their website. Whichever team's cheerleaders appear to be more sultry and seductive will get the pick. (It makes sense that way. After all, if the past few years have taught us nothing else it's that professional sports are really just a front for an orgy. Whichever team is more satisfied at that buffet of life should perform better on the field.)
For the Falcons, they bring the randiness right out of the gate. Their website advertises a bikini calendar, has plenty of sexy photos... and the girls seem like they could easily transition over to the Gold Club (or Claremont Lounge) without too much difficulty.
It was a different story for the Steelers. They no longer have cheerleaders. They used to. The ladies were called the Steelerettes. I found some photos from their recent reunion. And while, yes, they appear down to party... and I know that the older the berry, the sweeter the juice... I just can't see them being randier than a bunch of young ladies from Atlanta.
The pick is the Falcons. - Turnover margin. (0-0) This follows in the tradition from two years ago (fatter offensive line) and last year (quarterback intelligence). Football talking heads always say that turnover margin wins games. (Then they go back to making fun of the clothes the other guys in the studio are wearing.) So let's see how much turnovers can predict victory.
Here in week one, I'm going to go with last year's turnover margins. For all future weeks, I'll go with this season's margins. (In the playoffs, I'll use regular season results.)
Last year, Atlanta had 28 takeaways (interceptions and fumbles recovered) and 25 giveaways, for a solid +3 margin. Pittsburgh had 22 takeaways and 25 giveaways, for a -3 turnover margin. The Falcons are the pick. - Higher team salary. (0-0) As much as turnovers win ball games... salaries should be an even better predictor, right? Even with the NFL's formerly strict salary cap (which is currently in flux), there's some pretty serious deviation in the league payrolls.
Tracking down 2010 numbers were tricky, but I eventually dug them up, so I can roll with this for the season.
The Steelers are paying out $123,263,015 this year, with Roethlisberger taking the biggest chunk. (Hey, $12.25 million can buy a lot of girls a lot of jello shots.) The Falcons are paying out $119,566,745 this year. Matt Ryan is also taking their biggest chunk. The win should go to the Steelers. - The opposite of my pick. (0-0) For the last two years, I've offered up my pick as the 11th method. And for the last two years, I've finished well under .500 and towards the bottom of the pack. So to turn things around this season, I'm going to try my hardest to make a pick... and then I'm going to go with the other team.
Everything about this game screams "Atlanta" at me. Roethlisberger's out, and a distraction. Pittsburgh finished last year very shakily. Atlanta looks poised to make something happen this year -- not win their division, necessarily, but contend for a wild card. So, since I'm pretty sure Atlanta's going to win, this pick goes to the Steelers.
This list was published on Saturday, September 11, 2010 at 05:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
