11 Picks For 2010 NFL Week 2, Texans at Redskins
Published Saturday, September 18, 2010 at 03:00:00 PM
Each week of the NFL season and playoffs, I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the season I wrap things up and draw wild conclusions. Because there ain't no conclusions like wild conclusions.
This week's game is the Houston Texas, fresh off their upset victory over the Indianapolis Colts, at the Washington Redskins, fresh off their last second miracle holding call victory over the Dallas Cowboys. The opening line was Houston -3, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, September 18, 2010 at 03:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, September 18, 2010 at 03:00:00 PM
Each week of the NFL season and playoffs, I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the season I wrap things up and draw wild conclusions. Because there ain't no conclusions like wild conclusions.
This week's game is the Houston Texas, fresh off their upset victory over the Indianapolis Colts, at the Washington Redskins, fresh off their last second miracle holding call victory over the Dallas Cowboys. The opening line was Houston -3, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (0-1) I simulate each game on one of the greatest football video games ever, 1991's Tecmo Super Bowl. This game between Houston (Oilers) and Washington was an absolute mess. It took Houston six sacks, two fumble recoveries and three interceptions just to win on a last-second field goal by Tony Zendejas. And somehow, none of those turnovers was an Earnest Byner fumble.
The pick is the Texans.- Madden 11 simulation. (1-0) To contrast with Tecmo's 19-year-old rosters, I also simulate the games on Madden 11 with up-to-date rosters and player abilities.
I want to focus on the game (it wasn't as close as the scoreboard makes it seem, Matt Schaub went wild on the Redskins) except that I was blown away at the end to find a glitch in Madden 11. I took a photo of the TV which I've included below... and drawn on, Perez Hilton style, to further annoyingly illustrate my point...
The real final score was Houston 31, Washington 21. Except one of the Madden scoreboards game Houston credit for an extra six points. It was never like this during the game, just here at the end. I know when it happened, too -- in the first quarter a touchdown was overturned (and Houston ran it in on the next play). The real scoreboard only gave them 7, the wonked scoreboard gives them 13.
Tecmo Bowl doesn't even make mistakes like that.
The pick is the Texans. - Laska, my parents' dog. (1-0) Just like last season, my parents' dog is winning out of the gates. This week she ate the treat that symbolized the Texans, so that's her pick. Will she have another incredible run? Or is she just buying into the hype after one good game by the Texans?
Accuscore. (1-0) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations to pick the game. After all that, it came up with the Texans 52 percent of the time. The Redskins won 47 percent of the time and, as usual, that mysterious missing one percent was donated to the Greek god of fire.
- ESPN's Sports Guy. (0-1) ESPN's beloved Sports Guy is taking the Texans here, even giving 3. I'm starting to see a pattern emerging in this week's picks.
- 11 Points Reader Battle. (1-0) I'm already loving the reader picks for this year. If you want to get in on it, send me a message on Twitter... the list is already getting close to full (especially since winners get to stay on, like a pickup basketball game) but there's still some room, I think.
Last week two of the three pickers were correct. So we'll welcome back @dude_1818 and @pat_stack (who also does a full slate of picks on his website)... and welcome @nellayelhsa, who was the first person to ask if she could get in on the pickin'!
dude_1818: "Texans @ Redskins is a harder pick. The Texans have a better rank, but worse record. I'm going with the Redskins based on their prior record."
pat_stack: "I pick HOU 2 win. Tho I pick cherry shake w/ chili-cheese fries at DC's Ben's Chili Bowl 2 win 'food items that are the shit.'"
nellayelhsa: "Foster was hot last week but the Redskins are a smarter team playing at home. I think they'll be able to hold the Texans off & win"
So with two votes, the readers have bucked the trend and gone with the Redskins.
Internet psychic. (0-1) I had my second online chat at LivePerson with my Internet psychic this week, a guy who goes by the name Psychic Love Guru 7. He costs me $1.99-per-minute. As per last week, they won't answer questions that require a hard prediction, so I again had to phrase this in the form of a more psychic-friendly vague question.
My man.
"I'm torn. I love two women. One lives far away from me, she's a real Texan. The other one a capital sweetie and she's at home right now. She's Indian. Not like you Indian, though. Who should I choose?"
This time he only stalled for 50 seconds before giving me the answer: Go with home. So the Psychic Love Guru 7 is going with the Redskins AND only cost me half as much this week.- Randier cheerleaders. (0-1) Here, I examine the websites for the cheerleaders for both teams and pick the sultrier ones to, um, motivate their team to victory. Let's start with the Redskins...
That's a pretty impressive resume. Not only do they have Redskins-inspired underboob in their swimsuit calendar, but they have cheerleaders named Brittany, Brittini AND Buffy. (Although I feel like "Brittini" should be pronounced like "martini" and not "Britney".) How can the Texans respond...
While not as scandalous or stripperized, I just can't shake the phrase "poor man's Dallas Cowboy cheerleaders" from my mind. And something about that makes me think these cheerleaders just work a little bit harder to get the job done. So the pick is the Texans. - Turnover margin. (0-1) They say that winning the turnover battle means you win ballgames. Unfortunately, for this week's pick, we have to use a sample size so small even Woody Paige wouldn't use it to draw a conclusion.
Last week the Redskins had zero turnovers and recovered one fumble, for a +1 turnover margin. The Texans recovered a fumble but also gave up an interception, for a 0 turnover margin. So the pick is the Redskins. - Higher team salary. (1-0) Even in the NFL, where the salaries aren't as wildly different as MLB or the NBA, some teams pay out more and some teams pay out less. It would stand to figure that more money equals victory, right?
The Texans have a 2010 team salary of $125,868,652, with Mario Williams getting the biggest chunk. The Redskins are known as some of the NFL's biggest spenders, and have a total team salary of $189,475,961, with superstar Albert Haynesworth getting the biggest chunk at $25.6 million. (Skins fans love that.) So the pick here is the Redskins. - The opposite of my pick. (1-0) Because I've done so horribly on picks the past two years, I've changed strategies -- this year I'm going to think really hard about who's going to win, then pick the opposite. I've gone back and forth on this a few times but my instinct is the Redskins. The Texans won one game -- granted it was a big game, but still. I thought the Redskins would have a good year going in to the season and even though it wasn't pretty, they also won their first game. So I'm pretty sure the Redskins are going to pull this out -- therefore, my pick is the Texans.
This list was published on Saturday, September 18, 2010 at 03:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
