11 Picks For 2010 NFL Week 3, Lions at Vikings
Published Saturday, September 25, 2010 at 01:00:00 PM
Each week during the NFL season, I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the season, we see which of these works the best.
Usually I try to pick games where the Vegas line is less than two points but this week, I went in a different direction. The Detroit Lions are 0-2. They're about two plays away from being 2-0. The Minnesota Vikings are also 0-2. They look like they're teetering on the brink of an implosion of a season. But Detroit's quarterback is out for the game... Minnesota's at home... and somehow, the game has an 11-point line in Minnesota's favor.
I find this whole thing fascinating. So this week's game is the Lions at Vikings. The opening line was Vikings -11, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, September 25, 2010 at 01:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, September 25, 2010 at 01:00:00 PM
Each week during the NFL season, I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the season, we see which of these works the best.
Usually I try to pick games where the Vegas line is less than two points but this week, I went in a different direction. The Detroit Lions are 0-2. They're about two plays away from being 2-0. The Minnesota Vikings are also 0-2. They look like they're teetering on the brink of an implosion of a season. But Detroit's quarterback is out for the game... Minnesota's at home... and somehow, the game has an 11-point line in Minnesota's favor.
I find this whole thing fascinating. So this week's game is the Lions at Vikings. The opening line was Vikings -11, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (1-1) Man, Barry Sanders is fast in Tecmo Super Bowl. He has to be up there with Bo Jackson. In this game, the Lions really dominated for three-and-a-half quarters of fast-moving clock but failed to truly get points on the scoreboard.
The Vikings rallied back in the 4th quarter on two long catches by Anthony Carter (who I mistakenly thought was Cris Carter -- how many wide receivers named Carter did this team have?) (Is the answer "Two?")... but the Lions forced a key turnover and kicked a field goal to win the game at the whistle.
Madden 11 simulation. (2-0) This feels very prophetic in a way. The Lions dominated the game. They moved the ball. The Vikings looked rusty. Basically Brett Favre just kept chucking the ball 40 to 50 yards praying for a catch. Finally, it came down to the 4th quarter. The Vikings finally put together a scoring drive to tie the game.
The Lions charged downfield. Missed a 33-yard field goal. Forced Minnesota to a three-and-out. Got the ball back. Marched back down the field. Had a penalty to take themselves out of field goal range and got sacked as time expired to force overtime. Lost the toss, quickly lost the game, 13-7, in OT. A vintage example of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. The pick is the Vikings.
It's interesting how the two video game sims had parallels this week. In both cases, Detroit looked better for most of the game. In both cases, Minnesota tied the game in the fourth quarter. In both cases, Detroit had a chip shot field goal to win the game in regulation. In only one case, they made it.- Laska, my parents' dog. (2-0) At what point do we start respecting that the dog isn't just lucky but actually has the ability to pick games? How 'bout if she wins this one. Laska definitively ate the treat symbolizing the Lions.
Accuscore. (2-0) Accuscore runs thousands of simulations of the game to predict a winner. The Vikings won three out of four times. The Lions won almost one out of four. One out of 100 times, the stadium magically vanished after the Death Eaters showed up.
- ESPN's Sports Guy. (1-1) ESPN's Sports Guy takes the Lions. Now, granted, he takes them with the 11 points. The spread, not this website. I'm not sure how I'm going to handle it if the Vikings win by less than 11. Do I give him a win? I guess I'll cross the bridge when the ship sails.
- 11 Points Reader Battle. (1-1) We had only one survivor from last week, @pat_stack, who will now be making his third week of picks. (And again, he picks the full slate of games every week over on his website; here are his full week three picks.)
This week he's joined by two newcomers, @AdamLetterman and @beardiemcwarren to make the picks.
pat_stack: "I'm going with MIN. I hate Favre and admire Lions' guts, but DET has no Stafford & D too ugly to hold down Peterson + angry Favre"
AdamLetterman: "Hey Sam. I think Detroit is going to sneak a win, but I can't imagine how they would actually do it. I guess I have to go with the Vikings."
beardiemcwarren: "As much as I dislike Favre and want to see him go 0-3 I believe that the Vikings defense will be too much for the Lions to handle. I was tempted to take the upset and if Stafford wasn't hurt I probably would have. I just don't have any faith in Shaun Hill."
So it's a clean sweep; all three of the readers are going with the Vikings.
Internet psychic. (0-2) For this method, I've enlisted the services of an online psychic named Psychic Love Guru 7. He sells his precognitive powers for $1.99/min over at LivePerson.com. He doesn't know he's making NFL picks -- psychics roundly refused to actually pick something as concrete as football winners -- so I phrase my football pick question in the form of a more psychic-friendly drivel question. This week's...
Our spiritual guide for the season.
"PLG7, I have a problem. My son wants to spend the winter going away on a safari, living with the Lions. I think his talents might be better used if he stayed home and trained to become a chef by cooking things on our Viking range. Which option seems better to you?"
He stalled for almost two minutes but finally gave up the answer that "[my] son should lion." Not 100 percent what that sentence means but it's a pick for the Lions.- Randier cheerleaders. (1-1) This one was easy. The Detroit Lions don't even have official cheerleaders. Just this unofficial group of women called the Detroit Pride. They cheer, but the officials at Ford Field won't let them perform organized cheers, take photos, or wear Lions logos or colors -- and they, naturally, have to pay for their own seats. Plus, they don't look all that randy...
Minnesota's cheerleaders are clearly randier. Not only do they actually exist, from the looks of this photo, they've managed to stay incredibly tan in Minnesota. You've got to be dedicated to do that.
The pick is the Vikings. - Turnover margin. (0-2) "They" -- whomever "they" may be -- say that winning the turnover battle wins games. After only two weeks it's not the greatest sample size, but it's twice as good as last week, right?
The Vikings have a turnover ratio of -3, with five giveaways and two takeaways. The Lions have a turnover ratio of -1, with five giveaways and four takeaways. Neither team is setting the world on fire yet, but someone's got to win... so it's the Lions. - Higher team salary. (1-1) The Lions have a salary of $122,334,692 this season, with the highest chunk going to Matthew Stafford ($12.98 million). He ain't playing tomorrow, he's hurt. The Vikings have a salary of $143,016,371, with the highest chunk going to Jared Allen ($13.16 million). The Vikings are spending more money -- and their highest-paid player is playing -- so they're the pick here.
- The opposite of my pick. (2-0) The reason I picked this game is because I wanted to see if anyone had the guts to go with the upset. Very few actually did. I just don't know. The Lions are a couple of plays away from being 2-0. The Vikings are 0-2 and it was a shaky road to get there. I want to say the Lions can upset them, I do... but in Minnesota, without Stafford playing, with the Viking season on the line, I just have to go with Favre and the goons. Therefore, based on the assumption that every pick I make is terrible, this one goes to the Lions.
This list was published on Saturday, September 25, 2010 at 01:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
