11 Picks For NFL 2010 Week 16, Titans at Chiefs
Published Saturday, December 25, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM
If you're reading this on Christmas, thank you for using your few moments of personal quiet on 11 Points. Now go back to ham and discussions about how many Weight Watchers points there are in twice-baked cheesy potatoes.
For those here for the first time, every week I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. At the end of the year we add it all up and see which method did the best; then we draw wild conclusions despite the small sample size.
This week's game is the Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs. The opening line was Chiefs -4.5, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Edited to add: The Chiefs won without a problem, 34-14.
This list was published on Saturday, December 25, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, December 25, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM
If you're reading this on Christmas, thank you for using your few moments of personal quiet on 11 Points. Now go back to ham and discussions about how many Weight Watchers points there are in twice-baked cheesy potatoes.
For those here for the first time, every week I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. At the end of the year we add it all up and see which method did the best; then we draw wild conclusions despite the small sample size.
This week's game is the Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs. The opening line was Chiefs -4.5, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (7-8) Got a really good game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tennessee Titans' 1991 identity, the Houston Oilers. Warren Moon was basically untouchable and the Oilers jumped out to a nice lead. He was hitting Drew Hill (not Dru Hill, sadly) on deep touchdown passes and things looked bad for the Chiefs. Then about five turnovers happened in the second quarter, and the Chiefs started cutting it.
They cut the lead to 28-24 in the fourth quarter and tried the onside kick. Like almost all onside kicks in Tecmo Super Bowl history, it failed, and the Oilers/Titans held on to win.
Madden 11 simulation. (5-10) It hasn't been a very good season of predictions for Madden. And I think it's because, for some reason, when the computer plays against another computer opponent, every single incomplete pass is a near interception. The phrase "He drops the sure pick!" comes out of the speakers about three times a quarter.
Anyway, the Titans combination of Kerry Collins to Nate Washington was unstoppable this game. And while Kansas City threw up a late touchdown to make the final score look close at 17-14, it never really felt in danger. The Titans controlled the game and won.- Laska, my parents' dog. (8-7) Laska ate the treat corresponding to the Chiefs this week, a surprise since she's rarely been picking the favorite this year. Not that she knows, of course. UNLESS SHE DOES...
Accuscore. (12-3) So last week's game was the Giants at Eagles. The Giants had an insurmountable lead in the second half and I started celebrating that Accuscore was going to drop the game and move back toward the rest of the pack. Then the Eagles completed their ridiculous comeback and I started cursing my hubris.
This week Accuscore likes the Chiefs. They see Kansas City winning 53 percent of the time, Tennessee winning 46 percent of the time, and the apocalypse happening and prematurely ending the game because KC is in a relevant week 16 game 1 percent.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (6-9) He's going with the Chiefs, and picked them to cover the spread at -5. He also wrote about why "The Fighter" is... well, I couldn't really figure it out. He seems to either like it or not like it.
- 11 Points Reader Battle. (9-6) Last week, all three readers picked the Eagles. I was upset that they were going to lose, because they were all so quick in responding when I asked for picks and all gave well-thought-out responses. Then the Eagles came back and won, so all three of them are back this week...
@typerrino: "KC usually doesn't usually have anything to play for this late in the season. I like them to win and stay ahead of SD in the West"
@daisyducky: "Matt Cassel has a lot of potential and I really think they can take the Titans. My vote is the Chiefs."
@sarkasticwiz: "Not having paid much attention to Tennessee this season, and knowing how strong the Chiefs have been, I'm going with Kansas City"
So with three votes, the Chiefs are the reader pick for the week.
Internet psychic. (7-8) Every week I e-talk with this overseas psychic at $1.99/min. He won't pick NFL games, so I disguise my pick question as a more vague question. And thanks to our language difference, I seem to be getting away with it. This week...
Our spiritual guide for the season.
"Very tough career call this week. I'd like to be a titan in my industry and I know that I'm on the path to get there. But I'd also like to take a stab at being a chief executive. Which one should win out -- being a titan or being a chief?"
The Titans kind of pigeon holed me this time around, but he still took my question at face value. And after two $1.99 minutes, he went with the Titans route. Who knew?- Randier cheerleaders. (8-7) Last time I featured the Chiefs cheerleaders, I mentioned their wholesomeness. I spent forever digging around on their site for the dirtiest photo I could find and ultimately, I found this one...
Meanwhile, I spent about two minutes searching around for a randy photo on the Titans cheerleaders site and found this...
We all know how THAT night ended up. The more morally questionable cheerleaders are the Titans. - Turnover margin. (8-7) The Titans aren't as bad as you'd figure for a team with a losing record -- they have 26 giveaways and 22 takeaways for a -4 turnover margin. Meanwhile, Kansas City has turned it over just 10 times (second-fewest in the NFL) and has 20 takeaways. That's a +10 turnover margin, so the pick is the Chiefs.
- Higher team salary. (9-6) Spending equals championships, right? Isn't that the theory? The Titans have a 2010 team salary of $119,741,100 with backup quarterback Vince Young getting the biggest chunk, at $14.2 million. Kansas City has a very, very low payroll at $83,391,188, with starting quarterback Matt Cassel getting the biggest chunk (and a full one-seventh) at $12.2 million. The pick is the Titans.
- The opposite of my pick. (9-6) The game is in Kansas City, and they have something to play for and control their own destiny. If they win their next two games, they hold off the Chargers and win the division. Meanwhile, the Titans are out of the playoffs and struggling. I don't think the Chiefs will choke away their opportunity (at least not this week, maybe next week) and I don't think the Titans have what it takes to push them to choke.
So, I think the Chiefs will win and therefore, my pick is the Titans.
Edited to add: The Chiefs won without a problem, 34-14.
This list was published on Saturday, December 25, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
