11 Picks For NFL 2010 Week 4, Seahawks at Rams
Published Saturday, October 2, 2010 at 03:17:26 PM
Each week during the NFL season, I select one game and use the same 11 methods to predict the winner. This is the third year of doing this and, thus far, the most boring methods are doing the best (Madden 11 and Accuscore). Will that change this week? Honestly, that could be the best thing that comes out of the NFC West all season.
This week's game is the Seattle Seahawks at the St. Louis Rams. The opening line was Seattle -1, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, October 2, 2010 at 03:17:26 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 2, 2010 at 03:17:26 PM
Each week during the NFL season, I select one game and use the same 11 methods to predict the winner. This is the third year of doing this and, thus far, the most boring methods are doing the best (Madden 11 and Accuscore). Will that change this week? Honestly, that could be the best thing that comes out of the NFC West all season.
This week's game is the Seattle Seahawks at the St. Louis Rams. The opening line was Seattle -1, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (1-2) The 19-year-old rosters of the AFC's Seattle Seahawks and the NFC's Los Angeles Rams battled it out in... well, a fairly predictable game. Dave Krieg fumbled. There were lots of field goals made and lots of field goals missed. The Rams' original Curt Warner scored a touchdown but didn't get close to as many touches as Cleveland Gary.
The Rams had a 17-6 lead deep in the 4th quarter before Seattle finally put up its first touchdown. They botched the onside kick, as usually happens in Tecmo Super Bowl, and the Rams ran out the clock via the pass. Obviously.
Madden 11 simulation. (3-0) Like last week in Madden 11, when I watched the Lions snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, the Rams followed in suit this week. Late in the 4th quarter the Rams had first and goal. Steven Jackson got stuffed on first down. He got stuffed on second down. On third down he was stripped at the goal line and the Seahawks recovered.
As they tried to run out the clock and go to overtime, the Rams accidentally let Justin Forsett bust out an 89-yard touchdown run as time expired, and the Seahawks won.- Laska, my parents' dog. (2-1) My parents were very disappointed that Laska lost last week. She bet on the Lions. It happens. This week she ate the treat corresponding to the Rams, so all of her eggs are in that basket now. Yikes.
Accuscore. (3-0) Accuscore runs thousands of simulations to predict the outcome of the game. When I checked earlier this week, Seattle was favored 51 percent to 48 percent. When I went back for the screenshot, that had somehow jumped up to Seahawks 54, Rams 44. With the rarely seen TWO missing percentage points missing, off to the big chameleon's gathering in the sky.
- ESPN's Sports Guy. (1-2) This week ESPN's Sports Guy didn't explain the rationale behind his picks, as he devoted his column to explaining why Michael Vick is worth rooting for. Laska would strongly disagree. Anyway, he went with the Seahawks on the road.
- 11 Points Reader Battle. (2-1) Last week, none of the three readers took the upset bait... all three picked the favored Vikings... and all three were correct. So all three are back to make a second pick this week.
This week we welcome back @pat_stack (who's been here since the first week), @AdamLetterman and @beardiemcwarren to make picks.
pat_stack: "Really tough one. I checked hella stats - SEA slightly better on metrics I chose, so this one's for you, [our friend] Gobe: I take Seahawks. Also, while logical self knows P of win each game = .5, P(4/4) only .0625. I am sweating each pick like Smokey w/ Big Worm."
AdamLetterman: "I can't pick against a St. Louis team, gonna have to go with Bradford having a huge game and a Ram win."
beardiemcwarren: "This is a tough one as neither of these teams are all that great. So I'll have to go with my gut, which is telling me that the Rams will pull out a close one at home."
So with two votes, the Rams are the reader pick for the week.
Internet psychic. (0-3) The man at the right is our psychic guide. He goes by the mysterious name of Psychic Love Guru 7. He charges $1.99/minute online. He won't answer direct questions about games, so I have to disguise these in the form of a question about something else...
Our spiritual guide for the season.
"Hey PLG7, big problems today. Lately, I sea that my girlfriend is always hawking me to change my hair. But I don't want to, I sit here at home, looking in the mirror, and I look like a strong, wooly ram. What should I do?"
After his shortest stall yet -- only about 20 seconds -- he sided with me keeping my hair like a ram. (So his pick is the Rams.) Frankly I think the whole thing was more convoluted than usual this week and he just wanted to get it over with as quickly as possible.- Randier cheerleaders. (2-1) This one was a no-brainer. I just compared their respective swimsuit calendars and it was clear which cheerleaders are keeping the atmosphere more loose.
The Seattle calendar's cover features a fairly classy dame. The St. Louis calender's cover is all about skinny dipping. The pick is the Rams. - Turnover margin. (0-3) If keeping your turnovers down and forced turnovers up wins football games... well, this metric shouldn't be 0-3. But it is. Let's see if this week turns it around.
So far this season, the Seahawks have seven giveaways and seven takeaways, for a turnover margin of zero. The Rams have seven giveaways and eight takeaways, for a margin of +1. Not spectacular, but enough for the Rams to get the pick here. - Higher team salary. (2-1) Seattle has a team salary this season of $138,180,488, with the biggest chunk ($11.6 million) going to Marcus Trufant.
The Rams have a low salary of $107,763,909 this season, with the highest chunk ($12.1 million) going to... you'll never guess this one... safety O.J. Atogwe. The pick is the Seahawks. - The opposite of my pick. (2-1) So far, going with the opposite of my instinct has carried me well. This week, everything about me leans toward the Seahawks. The Rams just feel like the Lions last week or the Browns in all the games I've watched -- they're bad and only know how to lose. Steven Jackson is dinged up, Seattle's been playing well (Pete Carroll seems happy to have players who are actually paid above the table) -- and everything points toward the Hawks winning. Therefore, my pick is the Rams.
This list was published on Saturday, October 2, 2010 at 03:17:26 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
