11 Picks For NFL 2010 Week 5, Chicago at Carolina
Published Saturday, October 9, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM
Each week during the NFL season I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the season we see which of these methods -- each as unreliable as the last -- produces the best results.
This week's game is the Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers. The opening line was Carolina -1, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, October 9, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 9, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM
Each week during the NFL season I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the season we see which of these methods -- each as unreliable as the last -- produces the best results.
This week's game is the Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers. The opening line was Carolina -1, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (2-2) So it finally happened. All of last season, I never had a game involving Carolina or Jacksonville, the two teams excluded from 1991's Tecmo Super Bowl. (When using the Oilers as both the Texans and Titans, at least.) This season I swore those teams wouldn't be excluded just because I couldn't simulate them in old school Tecmo.
Fortunately, Tecmo Super Bowl is a beloved game, meaning that my fellow nerds the world over have made modified versions of it. Within a few minutes I was able to find a modded version of TSB that included the 1996 NFL rosters and teams. That was the oldest version I found including Carolina and Jacksonville so I went with it.
In this game, the combination of Kerry Collins and Mark Carrier proved solid for the Panters (with three touchdowns) and Tim Biakabatuka closed the game out on the ground. The Dave Krieg- and Rashaan Salaam-led Bears sputtered and lost decisively, 27-7. (For once I couldn't get a screenshot of the final stats because the modded version didn't pause on that screen like the real version.)
The pick is the Panthers.
Madden 11 simulation. (3-1) Yet another low scoring slopfest in my Madden simulation. One of these weeks I should really pick a matchup between two good teams. Anyway, the offenses were basically asleep until less than two minutes left in the half when both engineered touchdown drives.
Slowness again set in for the second half as nothing seemed to work for either offense. The Bears got the ball back with about 1:30 left in the game and tried to go to work... but a quick interception in their own half of the field set John Kasay up to make his first field goal of the game (after missing two). The Panthers got a regulation victory in a game that had overtime written all over it.- Laska, my parents' dog. (3-1) My parents were thrilled that Laska moved back into a tie for first place. This week she definitively went with the Panthers -- she ate the treat corresponding to Carolina, then didn't even bother with the Bears for quite a while.
Accuscore. (3-1) Accuscore runs thousands of simulations of the game to predict a winner. When I checked in earlier in the week it was favoring Chicago, 50 to 49 percent. But after Jay Culter was officially scratched, the numbers jumped into Carolina's favor.
It likes the Panthers 56 percent of the time, the Bears 43 percent, and the apocalypse to happen mid-game thus preventing a winner one percent.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (1-3) The Sports Guy is taking the Bears and, he believes, current Bear and former Panther Julius Peppers will have, quote, "17 sacks, eight forced fumbles and three blocked field goals." I believe that's hyperbole, although with the state of modern sportswriting you never can tell.
- 11 Points Reader Battle. (3-1) We have two readers returning this week after successfully picking the Rams last week, and they're joined by a newcomer. @AdamLetterman and @beardiemcwarren are both back for their third week. Joining them is @celestialaly12, who happens to make picks on her own site as well -- and I even dropped in over there to make some end-of-the-season predictions too.
AdamLetterman: "Even though Chicago is coming off an embarrassing loss (seriously, 9 sacks?), Carolina sucks this year. Win goes to the Bears."
beardiemcwarren: "Cutler is still dealing with his concussion which means one of two things: Either this will be the big Todd Collins Jimmy Clausen showdown that no one has been talking about or Cutler will play woozy and throw more picks than usual. Either way I have to take Carolina."
celestialaly12: "Carolina saves their coach's job with a dazzling win over the Cutler-less bears. i also think that the two headed monster backfield finally breaks out for the panthers this week."
So with a 2-1 margin, the Panthers are the reader pick for the week.
Internet psychic. (1-3) This Internet psychic goes by the name of Psychic Love Guru 7. He charges $1.99 per minute to chat. He, like all psychics, won't make a pick on something tangible like an NFL game. So I phrase the NFL pick in the form of a more psychic-friendly question. This week...
Our spiritual guide for the season.
"I live in the wilderness and bears from far away keep coming near my home. I have read that bears are scared of panthers and a friend of mine just so happens to be a panther dealer. If I get a panther at home, will it defeat the visiting bears?"
I knew this one might take him longer to parse out, but asking such an absurd question was worth the extra $2 to me. At just under three minutes he refused to advocate animal-on-animal violence and sided with the Bears.- Randier cheerleaders. (3-1) This week is no contest. In fact, it's likely the biggest domination that this cheerleader battle will every have. See, the Bears used to have cheerleaders, suggestively named the Honey Bears...
But they don't have cheerleaders anymore. Especially not ones who all look like early 80s porn stars. As for the Panthers, this screenshot should take care of business...
I'm not just speculating that Carolina's cheerleaders are randy. Five years ago two of them were arrested for getting it on with each other in a bathroom stall. So it's cheerleaders who've been busted for public sex versus a team with no official cheerleaders. Panthers in a landslide. - Turnover margin. (1-3) The season is young but this difference is pretty clear. The Bears have eight giveaways and 11 takeaways after four games, for a margin of +3. The Panthers have 13 giveaways and eight takeaways, for a margin of -5, among the worst thus far in the NFL. The pick is easily the Bears.
- Higher team salary. (2-2) The Bears have a team salary of $132,338,732, with Julius Peppers getting the biggest chunk ($14.78 million). The Panthers have a considerably lower salary, at $112,784,928. Believe it or not their highest paid player is... Jake Delhomme, who is now on the Browns, but most of whose $15.18 million is being paid by the Panthers this year since they cut him while he was still under contract. Yikes. The pick is the Bears.
- The opposite of my pick. (3-1) So far going against my instincts has served me quite well. Everything I can see leads toward the Panthers -- they're at home, Jay Cutler is out, the Bears are due to come crashing back to Earth. And therefore, my pick is the Bears.
This list was published on Saturday, October 9, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
