11 Picks For NFL 2010 Week 6, Baltimore at New England
Published Saturday, October 16, 2010 at 01:00:00 PM
After two and a quarter seasons of doing NFL picks on this website, it finally happened. I am in sole possession of first place. Well... sort of.
People who regularly read this weekly feature know that, because of my abysmal performances in 2008 and 2009, this season I decided to make my pick the opposite of the team I was sure was going to win. And using that method, I am now 4-1, in sole possession of first. Wow.
For those who are reading an NFL picks column for the first time, for the entire NFL season I use the same 11 methods to predict one game a week. Then, at the end, I add it all up and see which method did the best.
The past few games haven't exactly been marquee matchups, so I aimed higher for week six. This week's game is the Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots. The opening line was Patriots -3, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, October 16, 2010 at 01:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 16, 2010 at 01:00:00 PM
After two and a quarter seasons of doing NFL picks on this website, it finally happened. I am in sole possession of first place. Well... sort of.
People who regularly read this weekly feature know that, because of my abysmal performances in 2008 and 2009, this season I decided to make my pick the opposite of the team I was sure was going to win. And using that method, I am now 4-1, in sole possession of first. Wow.
For those who are reading an NFL picks column for the first time, for the entire NFL season I use the same 11 methods to predict one game a week. Then, at the end, I add it all up and see which method did the best.
The past few games haven't exactly been marquee matchups, so I aimed higher for week six. This week's game is the Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots. The opening line was Patriots -3, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (2-3) As per my policy, when I have to simulate the Ravens in 1991's Tecmo Super Bowl, I use the (sigh) old Cleveland Browns. They get Eric Metcalf, Webster Slaughter and even QB Browns. (Bernie Kosar is one of only a couple of players who doesn't appear in the game.)
The Patriots ran out to a 15-0 lead... on the strength of two field goals, a safety and a touchdown. The Browns came charging back in the second half -- but some questionable clock management and punting, plus a defensive choke on a late fourth quarter third-and-long, gave it to the Patriots 18-10. A nice and unusual score for the pre-two-point conversion era.
Madden 11 simulation. (3-2) When I started up the game, EA Sports updated the rosters... and took Moss right off the Patriots. The Ravens dominated it from start to finish, even though all of the scoring happened in the second quarter. Ray Rice had over 100 total yards and a touchdown... the Ravens recovered a fumble on the following kickoff to score again... and then intercepted Brady before the end of the second half to score yet again. The Ravens took it handily, 20-7.
- Laska, my parents' dog. (3-2) Many people are concerned that after Laska's excellent run last year she's lost some of her magic. Perhaps that World Cup octopus stole too large a share of the world's animal game picking karma. Who knows? Anyway, this week she tries to get back on track by eating the treat that corresponded to the Ravens.
Accuscore. (3-2) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations and ended up with the Patriots winning 52 percent of the time, versus Baltimore's 47 percent. And, like always, one percent is just out there floating around, mocking Tom Brady's hair.
- ESPN's Sports Guy. (2-3) ESPN's The Sports Guy is picking the Patriots because, quote, "I'm a giant homer." Sir, I know a giant Homer and you are no giant Homer. Giant Homer works from home and wears a mumu.
- 11 Points Reader Battle. (3-2) X
This week we welcome back @AdamLetterman, the only person to correctly pick the Bears last week. This is his fourth week of picks. He's joined by two newcomers, @MaybeACrook and my friend Adam, who's not on Twitter, but is filling in after the next four people on the list all came up empty.
@AdamLetterman: "My brain thinks Ravens win with a strong defense and Moss in Minnesota, but I am going with my gut and say the Patriots win in a squeaker."
@MaybeACrook: "Branch hasn't learned offense, Raven's defense too strong combine for a Baltimore win by 2 touchdowns in spite of Flacco's arm."
Adam: "Ravens. Also, I don't really want to do this."
So with two votes, the pick is the Ravens.
Internet psychic. (2-3) There's been a little confusion about me and my connection to Psychic Love Guru 7. Here's what's going on. He's an Indian guy. We don't talk on the phone, we chat online for $1.99 per minute. Because the questions have to be about love, career or life I phrase my picks in the form of one of those questions and he has no idea what's going on. At least not until he Googles himself. This site is now the 8th highest page that shows up on Google when you search that name, 7th if you put the name in quotes. And some site that plagiarized one of my NFL picks lists comes up 10th. Anyway, on to this week's question.
Our spiritual guide for the season.
"Hey PLG7, tough one. I'm an English teacher and I have to pick something to show my class. I have that Mel Gibson movie 'The Patriot' at home. I want to show that, except I'm not sure if my class will take an Australian anti-Semite seriously as an American Revolutionary War hero. My other option is to read the class Edgar Allen Poe's "The Raven". It's a good poem but it's far away and it's always harder to pick something that's far away than at home. What choice will give my students a better life?"
I went a little overboard so it took him two minutes to read all that. Finally, he went with the Patriots.- Randier cheerleaders. (3-2) Yet another easy pick. As I searched the Baltimore website, the focus seemed to be on all of the community outreach stuff the cheerleaders do. While there were a few more risque photos, most of them were nice and wholesome and family-friendly...
Meanwhile the Patriots instantly bombard you with a calendar cover of three Southies sharing what appears to be one bikini top, two bikini bottoms and a sheet.
The randier cheerleaders battle easily goes to the Patriots. - Turnover margin. (2-3) Winning the turnover battle wins football games, right? This method follows in the tradition of 2008's "heavier offensive line" and 2009's "quarterback intelligence."
It's been a rough season for the Baltimore defense -- it has a big reputation but has NOT been forcing turnovers. The offense has coughed it up nine times, the defense only has three takeaways -- for a margin of -6. Meanwhile the Patriots offense has turned it over four times, the defense has taken it away eight -- for a margin of +4. Easily goes to the Patriots. - Higher team salary. (3-2) The Ravens have a total 2010 salary of $128,133,666. I always knew that franchise was the devil. Ed Reed is the highest paid, at $8.8 million.
The Patriots are legendary for winning without breaking the bank, so it stands to reason they're lower. And they are, ever so slightly. The 2010 team salary is $123,196,291. Randy Moss was their highest paid, at $11.26 million; now Brady is; and now Moss is gone.
The pick is the Ravens. - The opposite of my pick. (4-1) Signs are pointing to the Patriots. They're at home, they cleaned out the Randy Moss distraction, and I'm not convinced that Baltimore is anything special. After all, they're going to end this season with the distinction of being one of the few teams to lose to my Browns. I think the Patriots should take this and therefore, my pick is the Ravens.
This list was published on Saturday, October 16, 2010 at 01:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
