11 Picks for 2009 NFL Playoffs Week 1, Eagles at Cowboys
Published Saturday, January 9, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM
The regular season is over, and now we have only four weeks of playoffs left in the NFL season. (I thought about making it five weeks and using these methods to predict the Pro Bowl, but we all deserve more credit than that.)
Each week, I use the same 11 methods to predict one NFL game. Then at the end of the season we see which one works the best. At the end of the regular season, two of the methods are tied for first place at 10-7: ESPN's Sports Guy and my parents' dog Laska.
This week, we're predicting the winner of the NFC Wild Card game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys. The line is Dallas -2.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, January 9, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, January 9, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM
The regular season is over, and now we have only four weeks of playoffs left in the NFL season. (I thought about making it five weeks and using these methods to predict the Pro Bowl, but we all deserve more credit than that.)
Each week, I use the same 11 methods to predict one NFL game. Then at the end of the season we see which one works the best. At the end of the regular season, two of the methods are tied for first place at 10-7: ESPN's Sports Guy and my parents' dog Laska.
This week, we're predicting the winner of the NFC Wild Card game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys. The line is Dallas -2.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (8-9) In the first battle, we have two American symbols fighting to the death (which is also something we Americans can get behind) -- an eagle versus a cowboy. As much as I believe in the fighting ability of an eagle, the cowboy ultimately has enough weapons at his disposal (including his gay lover, the Joker) to defeat the eagle. So the first matchup goes to the Cowboys.
In the second battle, we have the band The Eagles taking on Cowboy Troy -- country music's answer to Jerome Iginla. This one's a no contest domination by the Eagles.
So with it tied 1-1, we go to the films: "Iron Eagle" versus "Drugstore Cowboy". One's an award-winning classic... and the other one is "Drugstore Cowboy". The pick and the winner is the Eagles.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (10-7) The Sports Guy spends his entire discussion on the game wailing on the Cowboys and praising the Eagles... then picks the Cowboys to win, 33-31. (He also spends a lot of his column wailing on going to live football games. That is one area where he and I grossly differ.)
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (6-11) For this measure, I look at the results of an annual Harris poll that asks fans to name their favorite NFL team. I check out the past 11 years and see how much the ranking of the teams have fluctuated; my assumption is, the lower the variance, the more loyal the fans.
This battle... is not close.
The Cowboys have extremely loyal fans, even through the rough times -- they're almost always the most popular NFL team and only drop down to 4th-most popular once. Overall their statistical variance is 1... good for first place in the NFL.
The Eagles fans are far, far more fickle. They've been as popular as 5th overall (in 2004 and 2005)... and as unpopular as 21st overall (in 1999). The swings are wild and the variance is 39... putting them third-to-last in the NFL (ahead of only the Rams and Colts). So the pick is the Cowboys, by a mile. - Madden 10 simulation. (9-8) Madden 10 has fully updated rosters and the most realistic gameplay of any football game ever... so I wanted to see how accurate it could be. According to @johnisello on Twitter, who ran the simulation for me this week: "The Cowboys beat the Eagles 21-13. close game tied at 7 until the 4th. both QB's played horribly & Marion Barber ran it in twice."
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (8-9) The Eagles are known as a strong team in the 19-year-old NES classic Tecmo Super Bowl... and they performed. The defense forced three fumbles, Randall Cunningham (who's known in the game as "QB Eagles" tore up the defense, and the Eagles shut out the Cowboys, 21-0.
- More intelligent quarterback. (7-10) For this measure, I look at the Wonderlic test scores of both quarterbacks. The Wonderlic is a pre-draft intelligence test that all prospective NFL players have to take... and the scores always get leaked.
Donovan McNabb does not make Syracuse look good; he scored a 14 out of 50 on the test when he came out of school. That score is very, very poor.
Tony Romo did far, far better, getting a 37 out of 50 when he came out of Eastern Illinois. So the pick is the Cowboys. - My parents' dog. (10-7) This week, my parents' dog Laska ate the biscuit that represented the Eagles, so that's her pick. (The Sports Guy went with the Cowboys, so after this week one of them will be in sole possession of first place.)
Accuscore. (8-9) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game to make its prediction. And it sees the Cowboys winning two-thirds of the time, making them the definitive winner.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (7-10) For this prediction, I consult with the only fans who really know what's going on: Internet message board fans. I select choice insights from ESPN.com's message board about the game, arrange them as a debate, and use that to determine a winner.
HaVoK__: Dallas gunna fold when Tony Ho-mo packs it in like he always does during the playoffs. Then Eagles will lose when Mc-coke blows it in the NFC champ game or SB.
Not totally in love with this comment. It's passionate, sure, but kinda all over the place. "Tony Homo" isn't exactly a groundbreaking nickname (although I've never seen it hyphenated)... and I think "Mc-coke" is supposed to be McChoke, which isn't that organic of a nickname for McNabb. Plus, he likes hi Eagles to win... just not enough to actually win the Super Bowl. Rough start.TCohio216: Look! phil is a good team but we are better, now that we have all our #### together with a 3 headed running back and some good go to guy in the air not one but more than one without jackson the eagles will have a hard time winning over the cowboyz and the D should be in the top 5 not #12 we have home feild av and the momentum on all sides with romo playing like a pro-bowler we - just - might - go - all - the - way.
I could've forgiven the run-on sentence, the misspellings, the non-sequitur nature of the comment... but quoting Chris Berman is unforgivable. Right now neither group of fans has the advantage.stevieg247x: McNabb has a great arm.. it just drives me crazy that he over-throws everyone in big games.. he needs to smoke a phat philly blount before the game and listen to The Roots.
Blount? Like Mark Blount of the Minnesota Timberwolves?MIAMIs Rorschach: MCNABB IS GUNNA CHOKE. EVERY KNOWS IT. THEY'L BE PUTTING IN VICK WHO WILL FUMBLE THE BALL AND THEN HELP WITH SOME DEFENSIVE TDS. YOU GUYS ARE PLAYING IN COWBOYS STADIUM SO THERES THAT. AND WESTBROOK MIGHT END UP WITH ANOTHER CONCUSSION. DALLAS WINS EAGLES CRY A LOSS. 34 TO 14 DALLAS
Sadly, this is the most coherent post on the entire message board. So I guess the Cowboys are the pick. (Poor showing by both groups of fans, let me tell you.) - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (9-8) He feels the Cowboys are hot and the Eagles are shaky, so he's going with Dallas at home.
- My pick. (7-10) I am just not sold on the Cowboys. Their much-celebrated December wins came against a resting New Orleans team, a Washington team that was about to fire its coach and a Philly team that was ignoring the game to prepare for this week. Plus, in the ballyhooed December stretch, they lost to the Giants and Chargers. I'm decidedly unimpressed. My pick is the Eagles.
This list was published on Saturday, January 9, 2010 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
