11 Picks for 2009 NFL Week 14, Cardinals at 49ers
Published Sunday, December 13, 2009 at 12:00:00 PM
Each week, I choose one NFL game and use 11 different methods to predict a winner. At the end of the season we add it up and see which method worked the best. Then I'll draw all kinds of wild conclusions based on the tiny sample size.
Last week, the Giants beat the Cowboys... an upset that only four of the 11 predictors got correct. One of those was my parents' dog, Laska... vaulting her even further into first place on this list. She sits at 9-4 (well, she "sit-stays" at 9-4)... her closest competitors are ESPN's Sports Guy and 1991's Tecmo Super Bowl, both at 7-6.
The game we're picking this week is the Monday Night Football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers. The spread is Arizona -3.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Sunday, December 13, 2009 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Sunday, December 13, 2009 at 12:00:00 PM
Each week, I choose one NFL game and use 11 different methods to predict a winner. At the end of the season we add it up and see which method worked the best. Then I'll draw all kinds of wild conclusions based on the tiny sample size.
Last week, the Giants beat the Cowboys... an upset that only four of the 11 predictors got correct. One of those was my parents' dog, Laska... vaulting her even further into first place on this list. She sits at 9-4 (well, she "sit-stays" at 9-4)... her closest competitors are ESPN's Sports Guy and 1991's Tecmo Super Bowl, both at 7-6.
The game we're picking this week is the Monday Night Football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the San Francisco 49ers. The spread is Arizona -3.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (5-8) This is a best-of-three battle between different interpretations of each team's mascot.
In the first battle, it's the literal interpretation: A cardinal against an 1840's prospector. I wouldn't necessarily want to take either one into battle if my life depended on it... but I guess, eventually, the prospector could hit the bird with his pan or pickax and take it out. So the first round goes to the 49ers.
The second battle is a religious cardinal versus a "Star Trek: Deep Space Nine" fan -- referred to as a Niner. It's basically a battle of religions... and here, I'll go with the official organized religion over someone who worships a spin-off of a spin-off of a spin-off. We're tied 1-1 going into round three.
Finally, it's Canadian rapper Kardinal Offishall versus a nine-millimeter gun. I'm just speculating here... but I'm thinking that a rapper from Canada is going to QUICKLY back down when faced with a gun. I mean... Snow would've too.
So the final pick is the 49ers, and they're the pick in the Battle of the Mascots.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (7-6) He didn't offer up any explanation, but he's going with the 49ers at home. (And taking the points, but since we just pick straight up, he gets the Niners and the Niners only.)
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (4-9) For this measure, I gauge how loyal each team's fan base has been over the past 11 years. I do this by looking at data from an annual Harris poll that asks fans to rank their favorite team -- and then calculating the statistical variance in the team's rank. The lower the variance, the less the fan have come and gone based on team success -- and therefore, the more loyal they are.
This is a very interesting case. The Cardinals have never been particularly popular -- never higher than 23rd overall in the NFL, and as low as last place in 2003 and 2004. The numbers only go through 2008... so this won't take into account all of the millions of bandwagon fans that (I'm sure) jumped on after last year's Super Bowl run. As it stands, the Cardinals are 8th place in the NFL for loyal fans (a statistical variance of 10.94) -- even though they haven't had many fans, those fans haven't wavered.
The 49ers are almost an opposite case. They still have a TON of goodwill from their '80s and '90s runs. They've been ranked as high as 2nd and as low as 11th. That gives them a statistical variance of 10.5... one spot above the Cardinals at 7th. Just with a way more popular team. The 49ers win this in an exceptionally odd battle. - Madden 10 simulation. (5-8) Here, my friend John simulates the game using Madden 10's up-to-the-second rosters. In this game, the 49ers withstood a furious comeback attempt and won 28-20. Both quarterbacks threw two touchdowns and two interceptions.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (7-6) I use 18-year-old Tecmo Super Bowl for NES to simulate the game... just to see if its two-decade-old rosters can compete with Madden 10's two-second-old rosters.
This game was not as close as the score indicates... and the score was Niners 31, Cardinals zero. The 49ers absolutely destroyed the (Phoenix, at the time) Cardinals. Time ran out in both halves as the Niners were driving... if not for that, the score really should have been 45-0.- More intelligent quarterback. (4-9) Here, I compare the pre-draft intelligence test scores of both quarterbacks, figuring that the more intelligent QB should "think" his team to victory.
For the first time all season, though, I ran into a problem: Cardinals QB (future Hall of Famer) Kurt Warner was undrafted, and never took the Wonderlic intelligence test.
But... 49ers quarterback Alex Smith took it and got a 40 out of 50... basically an unheard-of score for NFL players. Therefore, I'm going to assume that beats anything Warner could've posted and go with the 49ers. - My parents' dog. (9-4) It's pretty fantastic that Laska is in sole possession of first place. Does it speak to the randomness of sports betting... parity in the NFL... or that the dog is a magical, psychic dog? To be determined.
To make the pick, my parents place two biscuits on opposite sides of a room and designate a team to each biscuit. Then they let Laska into the room and see which biscuit she goes for.
This week she ate the Cardinals biscuit. She ate the 49ers biscuit right after, so we'll say this is going to be a close game with Arizona just coming out on top.
Accuscore. (7-6) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game to predict a winner. This week it STRONGLY favors the Cardinals, with them winning 63 percent of the time.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (6-7) For this method, I look at message board comments about the game. I pick some particularly excellent quotes, arrange them as a debate and pick a winner.
TheBigAZ151680: the 49er more like the 69ers with all guys hahahahahahahaha
Classic Internet discourse. Let's see how the Cardinals fans respond.shack707humboldt: Wow, well most teams field all guys. Unfortunately for the Cardinals they have to field Kurt Warner, an aging smelly vagine. hahahahahhahahaha
Hmm. Countering a labored 69 joke with a "Borat" reference? Yikes. That's a push right there.brobbb91: I may be a a cards fan but I still say at least 20% of any teams fan base(usually it is quite more), is mostly ridiculous and could not frame a reasonable discussion about their team with another. I did not think we would do as well against the vikings as we did. With that I think we have our team actually buying into what the Whiz is telling them, which should translate into a group that will not overlook the 49ers and come out ready to clinch the division and but the doubt to rest. 5-1 division would still look pretty good.
It's funny reading these quotes versus, say, quotes about the Saints or Vikings or Colts or Patriots. The fans believe... but give themselves enough outs that if their bubble team implodes they can say, "I knew it!" Anyway, this guy hedges worse than Edward Scissorhands (hi-yo!) and ultimately gives his Cardinals a tenuous pick.RyanMoriarty49ers: I am a 49ers fan. My team sucks. Worst thing to happen this year is Alex Smith playing decent ball. Just means another year with a weak QB in 2010. Love Singletery but he tends to blow games. That being said. The 49ers will win this meaningless game on Monday night and finish the season 8-8.
Well, at least no Cardinals fan outright said their "team sucks." What this guy's going through with Alex Smith I went through with Romeo Crennel a few years ago -- the worst thing that could've happened was a 10-6 Browns team because it bought us another year with someone who, we all knew, was killing the franchise.
Still, in a back-and-forth as shaky as the NFC West, the slight edge goes to the Cardinals. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (6-7) He types a whole bunch of nonsense about Alex Smith and ultimately rambles his way to picking the Cardinals, 31-16.
- My pick. (5-8) This one feels pretty clear to me. I think the Cardinals are better of these two under-.500 division champion contenders and I see them taking the Monday night victory on the road. I promise, this is the last NFC West game I'll do this year.
This list was published on Sunday, December 13, 2009 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at