11 Picks for 2009 NFL Week 17, Bears at Lions
Published Saturday, January 2, 2010 at 03:00:00 PM
It's the last week of the NFL season, I'm writing this from the backseat of a car that's on the road from Tampa to New Orleans (about halfway through a cross-country road trip), and I really have no idea what day of the week it is.
But I'm gonna get these NFL picks in. It's my job.
This week I decided to do a game between two non-playoff teams, because, as of next week, we'll be doing all playoffs. I wanted a game that could go either way... I've never done a Lions game before... so this made sense. Even though all they're playing for is pride. (Or, in Detroit's case, a later draft pick that will cost them less in salary.)
For those unfamiliar, each week I use 11 different methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. This week, it's the Chicago Bears at the Detroit Lions. The line is Chicago -2.5, but we're all picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, January 2, 2010 at 03:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, January 2, 2010 at 03:00:00 PM
It's the last week of the NFL season, I'm writing this from the backseat of a car that's on the road from Tampa to New Orleans (about halfway through a cross-country road trip), and I really have no idea what day of the week it is.
But I'm gonna get these NFL picks in. It's my job.
This week I decided to do a game between two non-playoff teams, because, as of next week, we'll be doing all playoffs. I wanted a game that could go either way... I've never done a Lions game before... so this made sense. Even though all they're playing for is pride. (Or, in Detroit's case, a later draft pick that will cost them less in salary.)
For those unfamiliar, each week I use 11 different methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. This week, it's the Chicago Bears at the Detroit Lions. The line is Chicago -2.5, but we're all picking the game straight up.
Battle of the mascots. (7-9) This is a best-of-three battle between representations of the teams' mascots.
The first one is an actual bear against an actual lion-- and, as documentaries and Disney movies will tell you, this isn't really much of a contest. Bears are big and all, but a lion will tear him apart. The first fall goes to the Lions.ETA: Numerous readers provided ample evidence that I was wrong, a bear would actually destroy a lion. So I'm retroactively changing this up.
The second battle is between two music acts: Little-known rapper Big Bear against '80s heavy metal band Lion. While Big Bear has a fantastic album cover -- him joined by bears who are smoking cigars and drinking champagne -- Lion is responsible for the theme song to the animated 1986 classic "The Transformers: The Movie". That makes it 1-1, going down to the last battle.
It's George Bluth, Sr., who GOB wanted to nickname the Big Bear (because he loves the honey) against Oscar Bluth, who Lucille loves because of his hair "like a lion." It's no contest -- George Sr. owned Oscar so many times it got ridiculous. Plus Oscar only has one pair of pants. The Bears win the final battle and win overall, 2-1.- ESPN's Sports Guy. (9-7) ESPN's favorite son is picking the Bears on the road... but does note that their QB, Jay Cutler, could set all kinds of crazy interception records this week.
- Fair-weatherness of fans. (5-11) For this measure, I look at data from an annual Harris poll that asks NFL fans to name their favorite team. I look at how the teams have ranked over the past 11 years and figure out the statistical variance. The lower the variance, I believe, the more loyal the fans have been... and the better fan advantage the team has.
The Lions have had a rough run, and it has shown. Their popularity peaked (for some reason) in 2006, when they were 17th in the NFL. But... the lean times have hurt, as they've dipped down to 30th in 2003 and 29th in 2008. Overall, they have a statistical variance of 22.5, which puts them 18th out of the 32 NFL teams.
It hasn't been a boom time for the Bears either... but, to their fans' credit, they've stuck around. (Also, their lean times haven't been even close to as lean as the Lions'.) They've been as high as 5th most popular and almost always between 5th and 8th, only dropping as low as 11th once. (In 2002.) Overall, that's a statistical variance of 4.03, putting them 3rd in the NFL, just behind the Cowboys and Packers. So the pick is the Bears. - Madden 10 simulation. (8-8) Using Madden 10's up-to-the-second rosters, this game was... the worst simulation of the year. The Bears defeated the Lions in a hideous 6-0 game on the strength of two first quarter field goals. Ouch.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (8-8) I was surprised by the results of this one. Most of it played out how I expected -- Barry Sanders was a running machine, the Bears defense sacked Rodney Peete approximately 25 times, etc. But the score stayed surprisingly tight, went to overtime... and the Lions won the coin toss and the game. (Yes, even in a 19-year-old video game the overtime coin toss is dumb.)
- More intelligent quarterback. (7-9) For this measure I look at the Wonderlic intelligence test scores of the teams' starting quarterbacks. Before the NFL draft, every prospect takes the 50-question Wonderlic test.
The Bears' Jay Cutler got a surprisingly shaky score coming out of a school like Vanderbilt -- a 26 out of 50. The Lions' Matthew Stafford did appreciably better, getting a 38. So the pick is the Lions. - My parents' dog. (10-6) After 16/17ths of the NFL season, Laska is in sole possession of first place, holding a tenuous one game lead over ESPN's Sports Guy. And she's guaranteed that she'll either go into the playoffs with a two-game lead or in a tie... because she's picked the Lions. She went into the room my parents set up, ate the biscuit representing the Lions... then left the room, quickly wandered back and ate the Bears.
Accuscore. (7-9) Accuscore runs thousands of computer simulations of the game to predict a winner. And it's behind the Bears, seeing them win basically two-thirds of the time.
- Internet commenter debate winner. (7-9) It's a division rivalry game... but even with that, two non-playoff teams battling in week 17 doesn't lead to many comments. Only 35 on ESPN's message board. Here's who the fans are arguing for...
11 for the Lions... 10 for the Bears... four are saying both teams suck... and the rest of the comments are traditional Internet jibberish. So the pick, just barely, is the Lions. - Sports Illustrated's Peter King. (8-8) King sees the Bears winning 23-10... and, like the Sports Guy, brings up Cutler and the interceptions. That must be in the "generic sportswriting notes for the week" pamphlet.
- My pick. (7-9) I don't know why... they definitely haven't shown me any signs of this... but I see the Lions winning. They had no expectations, so every win is a glorious way of putting last year's 0-16 behind them; the Bears had expectations for the season so they can't possibly be excited for this game. It's time for them to go home and this Detroit trip is an irritating inconvenience on the way. I'm going with the Lions who have a speck of something to play for.
This list was published on Saturday, January 2, 2010 at 03:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
