11 Picks for NFL 2010 Playoffs Week 3, Packers at Bears
Published Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
For those seeing this for the first time, every week I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. This is the second-to-last week, or penultimate week if I want to be a pedantic dickwad about it.
No, we don't do the Pro Bowl.
This week's game is the NFC Championship game, the Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears. The opening line was Packers on the road -4, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
For those seeing this for the first time, every week I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one NFL game. This is the second-to-last week, or penultimate week if I want to be a pedantic dickwad about it.
No, we don't do the Pro Bowl.
This week's game is the NFC Championship game, the Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears. The opening line was Packers on the road -4, but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. (9-10) The Tecmo game looked like it was going to be a shootout. Green Bay opened with a quick touchdown and Chicago answered. And then... Green Bay fell apart. The Fridge had seven sacks, the offense made terrible play calls and couldn't execute, and Chicago dominated, 31-7. Harbaugh even had a rushing touchdown. Tecmo is going with the Bears.
Madden 11 simulation. (6-13) The Tecmo game had a lot of action. The Madden game did not. It's weird... but I far, far prefer watching the Tecmo simulations than the Madden ones. Anyway, in this game Chicago ground it out. Matt Forte scored on a long breakaway run, and then it was a game of punts and turnovers until Chicago decided to kick a field goal rather than take a knee to end the game. The Bears won a sleeper, 10-0.
- Laska, my parents' dog. (11-8) Laska was happy to lock up a guaranteed winning record for the season. At least that's what my parents think she was trying to communicate. She ate the treat that corresponds to the Packers this week.
Accuscore. (14-5) Sadly, Accuscore already has the title locked up for the season. That's right -- the boringest method is going to win this thing. This week they love the Packers 61 percent of the time, the Bears 38 percent of the time, and sees the game ending prematurely when it comes out that Aaron Rodgers has been sexting pictures of his penis to masseuses one percent of the time.
- ESPN's Sports Guy. (9-10) The Sports Guy is picking the Packers (to cover), mostly because of a complete lack of faith in Jay Cutler. Which is pretty legitimate.
- 11 Points Reader Battle. (12-7) We had a few survivors who picked the Steelers last week. They're joined by some newcomers this week. I expanded the field from three because I wanted to get everyone in before the season ends.
@toohipguitars: "Aaron Rodgers looks like he's on another level, and I think Cutler might be the worst QB left in the playoffs. I'll take the Pack."
@mikaellevin: "My Jewish compadre: Chicago's Jewish population is 2.6%, while GB's Jewish population is 0.05%. Therefore my pick is Chicago."
@mjstaub: "It comes down to the inconsistency of Jay Cutler vs. the inconsistency of the Packers running game. the Bears win this one at home"
Erik (Twitterless): "Both of these teams are in that category of "getting hot at the right time" which will make this an interesting and bitter matchup. Chicago has a good pass rush, but Green Bay's defense has been shutting down entire passing games lately. Even if you call it even on the defensive side of the ball, you absolutely have to give the offensive edge to the Packers. I think Green Bay wins this game handily, 31-20."
@janus09: "I hate this pick. At the start of the playoffs I predicted that this was the beginning of an epic Rodgers run that would rub it in the face of the media that crapped on him as he took over for Favre. Now we are to a game where the Packer's dreadful running attack will catch up to them in the crappy Chicago conditions. I can see Forte getting 5 yards a clip and setting up play action while John "the worst player to have his name chanted ever" Kuhn gets stuffed at the line and Rodgers is staring at 3rd and long every drive. I'm gonna stay on the Rodgers train though. Packers in a close one."
So with three of five votes, the Packers are the reader pick for the week.
Internet psychic. (8-11) This psychic lives in India and won't pick NFL games. But he will give me answers to seemingly fluffy and innocuous questions. So here's how I disguised the pick this week.
Our spiritual guide for the season.
"I'm a comedian and I'm trying to figure out whether to go the Chris Farley route or Emo Philips route. So do I Pack on the pounds or slim down like I had Beariatric surgery?"
After two minutes at $1.99 per minute, he went with the Bears. Apparently he wants me slender.- Randier cheerleaders. (8-11) This is the first time this season that neither team featured has official cheerleaders. (The Steelers don't either. Only the Jets are left with cheerleaders.) But both teams here used to have cheerleaders, so I'm going to compare those... see which one is capturing the Debbie Does Dallas '70s vibe better.
The Bears cheerleaders have it pretty solidly...
... but you just can't compare it to the Packers girls.
It's clear that 30-some years ago, Brett Favre was happy he was playing for the Packers, not the Bears. - Turnover margin. (11-8) The Bears had 31 giveaways (21 interceptions, by the way) and 35 takeaways during the regular season, for a turnover ratio of +4. The Packers only had 22 giveaways all season and 32 takeaways, for a ratio of +10. The pick is the Packers.
- Higher team salary. (11-8) The Bears are spenders, putting down $132,338,732 this season. DE Julius Peppers gets the biggest piece at $14.78 million. The Packers spend even more, though, with $139,276,998 total. Safety Nick Collins is highest paid at $10.95 million. It's close, but the pick is the Packers.
- The opposite of my pick. (11-8) I don't think this one is even going to be close. I have almost no trust in the Bears. I think they're shaky, I think they're untested and I think they're going to get rolled by a peaking Green Bay team. Rodgers is miles ahead of Cutler and the Packers defense looks as good as any in the league. I think the Packers are going to dominate and therefore, my pick is the Bears.
This list was published on Saturday, January 22, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
