11 Picks for NFL 2011- Playoffs Week 1, Cincinnati at Houston
Published Saturday, January 7, 2012 at 04:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
The playoffs are here, so we've only got three weeks of picks after this. For I believe the first time, all of our picking methods are still in the race to win it all this year.
This week's game is the Cincinnati Bengals at the Houston Texans. The Bengals are the surprise playoff team of the year; the Texans are playing in their first game in team history. Also, after I wrote this, I realized that we actually did Texans at Bengals back in week 14. The game here, though, is much higher stakes.
The line is Houston -3 at home, which means Vegas basically considers this game a coin flip. This year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, January 7, 2012 at 04:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, January 7, 2012 at 04:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
The playoffs are here, so we've only got three weeks of picks after this. For I believe the first time, all of our picking methods are still in the race to win it all this year.
This week's game is the Cincinnati Bengals at the Houston Texans. The Bengals are the surprise playoff team of the year; the Texans are playing in their first game in team history. Also, after I wrote this, I realized that we actually did Texans at Bengals back in week 14. The game here, though, is much higher stakes.
The line is Houston -3 at home, which means Vegas basically considers this game a coin flip. This year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (10-7) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl. Back in week 14, Houston crushed the Bengals in this simulation 52-13.
This game had more turnovers than an Arby's. (HI-YO?) Both quarterbacks threw three interceptions and each team also had two fumbles. But after all that, the Bengals managed to find the end zone far more often than the Oilers (confederating' for the Texans). The Cincy ground game won this thing, so the pick is the Bengals.- Laska, my parents' dog (9-8) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
According to my mom, this week Laska basically "ran her over" to get to the treat representing the Texans. She also picked the Texans in this matchup in week 14. Apparently she's not a fan of Skyline Chili. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (8-8*) - I believe Rob is going to have to duck out here -- we'd only talked about doing the regular season since, ya know, he makes his living figuring this stuff out for playoff games. If you're interested in getting some picks from him, click here.
- 11 Points reader picks (11-6) - Last week only two readers correctly picked the Bears to beat the Vikings in the Who Cares Bowl. They're back -- including AtTheStars455 who just keeps winning -- and joined by three new prognosticators...
@AtTheStars455 - "I'm still not totally sold on Cincinnati as a playoff-caliber team. I think Houston gets their 1st franchise playoff win by 3+ pts"
So with four votes, the pick is the Bengals.
@canzachbefunny - "I'll take the Bengals. Because even if I'm wrong it will still be more fun than rooting for Houston."
@RJMoffa - "I'm goin with Cinci, yates has looked ok but still has the shoulder problem. Also I'm still mad at Andre since he was my #1 pick."
@Kareno03 - "Houston lost to COLTS! Also, as a Cards fan, I don't want anything associated with Leinart to succeed. I say Bengals 100%."
@Jcollins205 - "A pick haiku: Cincy is the pick Yates is starting to falter Dalton reigns supreme"
Handsomer players (10-7) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Arian Foster seems like a handsome man.
The Bengals are a very proud eighth in the league in handsomeness -- even with Andy Dalton's Red Rocket being more like a Red Anchor. Houston is several notches below, coming in 18th -- just in the bottom half of the league. So the pick is the Bengals.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (10-7) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
This is different than week 14, as we now have one extra data point between these teams. Still, this is only their seventh meeting ever. And thanks to Houston's 20-19 win in week 14, they're knotted up at 3-3 (Cincy won the first three, Houston has won the last three). So we have to go to the total points. Cincinnati has scored 130 points against Houston; Houston has scored 123 against Cincinnati. So by a slim margin that basically makes this method a mix of small sample size AND no legitimate confidence interval, the pick is the Bengals.
Battle of mascot adorableness (10-7) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
And we're back to these two. Last time I gave Houston's mascot Toro a vote of "meh" and noted that Cincinnati's Who Dey? is adorable (despite that awkward name). I looked at several more pictures of them to try to figure out if I was too hasty in making my pick last time… and I was not. Who Dey? is just a cuddlier mascot than Toro. So the pick remains the Bengals.- Power rankings powerhouse (10-7) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
The Bengals are ranked 11th by ESPN… 11th by CBS… and 11th by SI. The Texans are ranked 10th by ESPN… 10th by CBS… and 9th by SI. This is the closest one we've had all year… but with Cincinnati averaging out to 11th and Houston averaging out to 9.667, Leeroy Jenkins cries at being excluded and the pick is the Texans.
Accuscore (11-6) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
In week 14, in Cincinnati, Accuscore inaccurately gave them the 55-44 edge (with the traditional missing one percent). It's a very different story in the playoffs in Houston here. Accuscore sees the Texans winning 64 percent of the time… the Bengals winning 35 percent… and Andy Dalton and his fellow redheads canceling the game to hold a Ginger Pride rally one percent.- More miserable fan base (8-9) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Nothing's changed in the past month. Houston is finally in the playoffs -- that seal is broken -- and it's nothing but optimism from here. Their short history is starting to sprout. Meanwhile the Bengals have lost two Super Bowls and are making just their third playoff appearance in 20 years. The pick is the Bengals. - The opposite of my pick (8-9) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I don't know why, but I have a hunch here about the Bengals. I think this game will be very close again, and I think Cincinnati manages to find a way -- getting revenge for Houston finding a way the last time they met. So I want the Bengals with the points… therefore the opposite of my pick is the Texans.
This list was published on Saturday, January 7, 2012 at 04:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Did you enjoy this list?
11 Points is a one-man operation that relies on word-of-mouth & repeat readers.
So please consider sharing this list using the social media icons in the box, and/or joining the 11 Points mailing list, Facebook fan page and Twitter feed.
11 Points is a one-man operation that relies on word-of-mouth & repeat readers.
So please consider sharing this list using the social media icons in the box, and/or joining the 11 Points mailing list, Facebook fan page and Twitter feed.
11 Points Countdown - Second Pilot Sneak Preview
Published Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Personal
11 Glorious (and Not So Glorious) Stomach Tattoos
Published Monday, February 20, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Misc
11 Speculations on Which Character Will Be Killed Off on Community
Published Thursday, February 16, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category TV
11 Points Countdown, the Video Series - Pilot Sneak Preview
Published Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Personal
11 Results for My Fourth Season of 11 NFL Pick Methods
Published Sunday, February 12, 2012 at 02:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks
11 Mind-Boggling Results From a Nationwide Doomsday Survey
Published Thursday, February 9, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category News & Politics
Full Archive
Published Wednesday, February 22, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Personal
11 Glorious (and Not So Glorious) Stomach Tattoos
Published Monday, February 20, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Misc
11 Speculations on Which Character Will Be Killed Off on Community
Published Thursday, February 16, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category TV
11 Points Countdown, the Video Series - Pilot Sneak Preview
Published Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Personal
11 Results for My Fourth Season of 11 NFL Pick Methods
Published Sunday, February 12, 2012 at 02:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks
11 Mind-Boggling Results From a Nationwide Doomsday Survey
Published Thursday, February 9, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category News & Politics
Full Archive
11 Points is comprised entirely of (theoretically) humorous 11-item lists covering a giant swath of topics.
It's composed entirely by this stern-
faced goon to the right. His name
is Sam. Screw Flanders.
It's composed entirely by this stern-
faced goon to the right. His name
is Sam. Screw Flanders.
11 Points Mailing List
updates, contests, exclusives
updates, contests, exclusives
(advertisement)
Friends, Bloggers and Well-Wishers
(Meaning they wish me no specific harm.)
(advertisement)
(Meaning they wish me no specific harm.)
(advertisement)
11 Points is a collection of exhaustively-researched, meticulously-written, theoretically-humorous 11-item lists, covering topics ranging from TV and movies to the Internet and video games to food and dating to politics and race relations.
It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at