11 Picks for NFL 2011- Playoffs Week 2, New Orleans at San Francisco
Published Friday, January 13, 2012 at 08:00:00 PM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the New Orleans Saints heading to San Francisco to face the 49ers. The Niners had a bye last week, the Saints won a shootout against the Detroit Lions. The line is disrespectful to the Niners -- they're the only home underdog this weekend -- it's the Saints -3. This year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Friday, January 13, 2012 at 08:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, January 13, 2012 at 08:00:00 PM
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This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the New Orleans Saints heading to San Francisco to face the 49ers. The Niners had a bye last week, the Saints won a shootout against the Detroit Lions. The line is disrespectful to the Niners -- they're the only home underdog this weekend -- it's the Saints -3. This year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (10-8) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
This one followed a fairly predictable pattern; probably what I would've guessed going in. The Saints (not that far removed from the Aints days) are surprisingly decent but ultimately the Montana-Rice-Craig 49ers are better. And that's how things went down. They traded scores in the first half, the Saints couldn't stop the Niners when they needed to in the second half, and eventually San Francisco pulled away. Nice for a video game that's two decades old... but as for the game this week, Joe Montana's not walking through that door.- Laska, my parents' dog (10-8) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
Apparently, this week, Laska did a fascinating move where she walked up to the San Francisco treat -- NOT Rice-a-Roni -- put it in her mouth, then spat it out and ate the Saints treat. In football terms, I interpret that to mean the Saints win late on a controversial overturned call. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (8-8*) - Since Rob's core business is picking these playoff games, I've had him step down for the rest of the season. This was my decision so as not to be selfish.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (11-7) - Last week, only the juggernaut AtTheStars correctly picked the Texans to beat the Bengals and cover. So she's back and joined by a small field...
@AtTheStars455 - "As good as SF's defense is, Brees is better. And I don't yet trust Alex Smith in a big game. I think the Saints win by at least 3"
With two votes, the pick is the Saints.
@NavillusEkul - "I'm taking the 49ers at +3... I think getting Brees and the Saints off the turf is the difference"
@PatreezyOBreezy - "Although I dont wanna see the Saints win the Superbowl lest Ellen decides to dance even more, I do think they will win this by +5"
Handsomer players (10-8) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Alex Smith.
This one got a bit one-sided. The Saints are one of the handsomest teams in the league, coming in 4th. The Niners aren't making any new friends in the Castro, coming in an unattractive-ish 21st. So the pick is the Saints.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (10-8) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
Think the handsomeness matchup was bad? This is the most lopsided head-to-head of the season. The Saints have won nine of the past 11 (dating back to mid-1999). The only time the 49ers have won were their two games in 2001, meaning that the Saints have won the last six. Blowout pick is the Saints.
Battle of mascot adorableness (10-8) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
The Saints mascot, Gumbo, has grown on me since the season's gone on. Week 3, I didn't love him (although I did love that his catchphrase is "How rude"). But now I look at him and I think I would give him a nice hug.
But not as nice of a hug as I'd give the San Francisco mascot, Sourdough Sam. And NOT just because he has the same name as me, which would be my "in" if I ever had the honor of meeting him. I love him because male human mascots are SO hard to make adorable, but they managed to pull it off here. He's just glorious. The pick is the 49ers.- Power rankings powerhouse (11-7) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
It's a close one this week (keeping in mind that, apparently, these sites don't update their Power Rankings during the playoffs so these are based off final regular season numbers). New Orleans is 2nd in ESPN... 2nd in CBS... and 2nd in SI. San Francisco is 3rd in ESPN... 4th in CBS... 4th in SI. That's the Saints average of 2 versus the Niners average of 3.667. Another sad, Leeroy Jenkins-less week. The pick is the Saints.
Accuscore (12-6) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
I can't even express how annoyed I am that Accuscore is in first place with only three picks left to go. If this method wins again I will eat my hat. (Or Sourdough Sam's hat. I hope it's made of sourdough.) Anyway, Accuscore sees the Saints winning 61 percent of the time, the Niners winning 38 percent of the time, and the game ending without us finding out the result one percent of the time because FOX is too busy using scenic SF shots to promote their new show Alcatraz.- More miserable fan base (8-10) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Neither of these fan bases has anything to cry about. The Saints had a rough several decades but won a damn Super Bowl a few years ago and are still in the grace period. The 49ers have had a rough decade but were so damn good before that it's hard to take pity on them.
The pick is the 49ers because obviously we focus on recent history (in this completely arbitrary method whose rules I make up as I go). - The opposite of my pick (9-9) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I'm sad that this is mathematically eliminated from winning outright. I just can't win. Anyway, I think that the Saints are the annual "team that's peaking at the right time" and have a really good chance of riding that all the way to a Super Bowl win. People have questioned whether the 49ers are for real all season, and I am going to follow the mob. Also, I am really not a fan of Jim Harbaugh. He seems like a real dick. So I think the Saints will win, therefore my pick is the 49ers and the points.
This list was published on Friday, January 13, 2012 at 08:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at