11 Picks for NFL 2011- Playoffs Week 3, Giants at 49ers
Published Saturday, January 21, 2012 at 10:00:00 PM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week we're doing the NFC Championship game between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. The line is San Francisco -2.5, which is a toss-up line, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, January 21, 2012 at 10:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, January 21, 2012 at 10:00:00 PM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week we're doing the NFC Championship game between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers. The line is San Francisco -2.5, which is a toss-up line, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (11-8) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
This one was a pretty harsh blowout. The Giants scored every time they touched the ball, Phil Simms outplayed Joe Montana, Ottis Anderson (who I have no memory of as an actual player) was breaking tackles like Bo Jackson, and New York dominated from start to finish. Final score 42-17.- Laska, my parents' dog (10-9) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for. This week she examined both of the treats carefully and went with the Giants. My mom called this a "reasoned decision," so, ya know, maybe she knows something we don't.
- Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (8-8*) - I've asked Rob NOT to contribute during the playoffs, as I didn't want to leech his core business. We'd only contracted for the regular season. So he's going to conclude with just his regular season record. For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here.
- 11 Points reader picks (11-8) - Last week we only had one survivor. He's back, along with my two all-stars from the season.
@NavillusEkul - "Im taking the Niners again... homefield advantage and that 49ers D is just too much"
So with two votes, the pick is the Niners.
@celestialaly12 - "I will take Eli and the G men mostly cuz i dont want to see an all harbaugh super bowl. I mean Alex Smith could be Trent Dilfer"
@AtTheStars455 - "Last week's win sold me on the 49ers. Not yet sold on the Giants - beating the league's worst defense isn't enough for me. SF wins"
Handsomer players (10-9 - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
xx.
These teams are close in handsomeness... and both in the lower 50 percent of the league. Meaning, I guess, that they're more close in ugliness than handsomeness. That's a weird "glass half empty/half full" way of looking at it though, right? Anyway, the Giants rank 19th and the 49ers rank 21st. So the pick is the Giants. (The Patriots and Ravens are both handsomer than either of these teams. So in two weeks, the AFC will be the handsomer choice to win the Super Bowl.)- Previous 11 head-to-head results (10-9) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
These teams have actually played in the postseason seven times before, a few of which are included in their past 11. They also met this season in week 10, where the 49ers beat the Giants 27-20 at home.
Over the past 11 games (including this season, the '02 wild card round, and the '93 divisional round), the Niners have won seven times (including both playoff games) and the Giants have won four. This is an easy pick for the 49ers.
Battle of mascot adorableness (11-8) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
Sadly, the Giants don't have a mascot. So Sourdough Sam of the 49ers wins by default. But he probably would've taken it regardless. He's pretty incredible. I said it last week and I'll say it again -- San Francisco somehow defeated the Uncanny Valley and made a human mascot adorable. That's badass.- Power rankings powerhouse (11-8) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better. (Keep in mind, these are from the end of the regular season. Which is why all three had the Packers and Saints as the top two teams. Well done, genius squad.)
The Giants are ranked 9th by ESPN... 8th by CBS... and 10th by SI. That's an average of 9. The Niners are ranked 3rd by ESPN... 4th by CBS... and 4th by SI. That's an average of 3.667. So the dominating Power Rankings pick is the Niners.
Accuscore (12-7) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
This week Accuscore sees the Niners winning 52 percent of the time... the Giants winning 47 percent... and the game being called so FOX can just keep showing Dwight Clark and David Tyree's famous catches instead one percent.- More miserable fan base (9-10) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Easy one here. The Giants won the Super Bowl a few years ago AND stuck it to Boston in the process. The Niners haven't won since they had an actual Mormon quarterback, not just a guy who went to school in Utah. The Niners fans are more miserable. - The opposite of my pick (10-9) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I've doubted the 49ers all season, including last week. And if they were playing the Packers, I would pick against them. But the Giants knocked out the Packers and now seem to have that "team that got hot at the right time" glow about them. I can't believe I'm doing this, but I think the Niners are going to win and go to the Super Bowl. I'm done doubting them. Therefore the opposite of my pick is the Giants.
This list was published on Saturday, January 21, 2012 at 10:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at