11 Picks for NFL 2011- Super Bowl, Giants vs Patriots
Published Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM
It's time for the Super Bowl! I can never tell who is and isn't legally allowed to call it that.
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
The line for the Super Bowl is the Patriots -3 over the Giants. Human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
It's time for the Super Bowl! I can never tell who is and isn't legally allowed to call it that.
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
The line for the Super Bowl is the Patriots -3 over the Giants. Human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (12-8) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
This has the distinction of being one of the most boring Tecmo simulations of the past three years. Look at those quarterback completion percentages -- Phil Simms 20, Steve Grogan 16. The two leading receivers each had one catch. This was brutal. If the real Super Bowl is this boring, people are going to be jumping out of windows.
The Giants scored a touchdown in the first quarter, both teams missed several field goals, the Giants finally hit one late... and THEN the Patriots finally put together a scoring drive. Their onside kick naturally failed and the Giants held on to win, 10-7.- Laska, my parents' dog (11-9) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
Laska, who's getting a little more methodical in her old age, debated both of the treats this week before ultimately settling on the Patriots. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (8-8*) - I shut Rob down for the season because he makes his living off playoff and Super Bowl picks and it wasn't right to publish them for the price of on the house. So he's going to finish 8-8.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (11-9) - For this final week, I opened up the picks to whomever happened to be reading Twitter at an obscure hour of the night on Thursday. Here's what we got...
@campbelliah - "Though I'm rooting for the Patriots (how did this happen?!?), the Giants have more strengths. Giants."
So with nine of 14 votes, the pick is the Patriots.
@Druid_mpw - "Everyone has been telling me Giants for the last week and a half, but something in me says Tom Brady this year. Pats..."
@kubrick97 - "Patriots will win, Brady doesn't lose to the same team twice in a year, nor does he have back to back bad games. Pats by 10."
@sarkasticwiz - "NY got hot at the right time, but the Patriots should have the edge. I'll say Pats cover the spread"
@jnbernstein - "I think pats win by more than 3"
@Gnick_ATL - "everybody I talk to is picking NY. I say NE 42-34."
@dude_1818 - "Patriots all the way."
@celestialaly12 - "you know im going tom terrific and the patriots"
@NavillusEkul - "I'm taking the Giants at(+3)... Their like the Ravens but with a good offense"
@Zbg333 - "It's going to be the Giants. Patriots have already won too many times."
@arbydarsh - "hard to pick against the hoodie these days, but I'm a cleveland boy, so I say the giants cover"
@cheekylink - "My boss is a huge Patriots fan... so I root against them even harder. I'm taking the Giants by a touchdown."
@RavingRat - "I absolutely go with the Pats and Brady's hair. Revenge is best served cold"
@AtTheStars455 - "Disclaimer: I won't publicly pick against my Pats. But I do think they're motivated to avoid a repeat of SB42 - so I like BB & co"
Handsomer players (11-9) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Our Super Bowl features two top 20 handsomeness teams. Although it's only out of 32, so that's not necessarily a ringing endorsement. The Giants rank 19th in handsomeness... the Patriots are 10th. So this one goes to the Patriots. Even though, for what it's worth, a survey came out last week where the majority of women said they'd rather have sex with Eli Manning than Tom Brady. So the Giants have that going for them.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (10-10) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
Believe it or not, these two teams have only played 10 times, including their game earlier this season. And, of course, the 2008 Super Bowl. In those 10 meetings, both teams have won five times. (Though the Giants won this year, and won that Super Bowl.) So in a piece of harmony that I am quite fond of, this ELEVENTH meeting is their rubber match.
As for how we'll make this pick, in the case of a tie, I go to the head-to-head points scored. It's incredibly close, but the Giants have outscored the Patriots by... eight points in their 10 meetings. So the edge goes to the Giants -- although, to use gambling terms, this is a pick 'em right here.
Battle of mascot adorableness (11-9) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
In a sad, sad finale, Pat the Patriot wins by default because the Giants don't have a mascot. I tried to find the most adorable photo I could of Pat because, in general, I think he's just groin-grabbingly ugly. The one to the right was the best I could do. The pick is the Patriots.- Power rankings powerhouse (11-9) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better. Keep in mind these are based on the final regular season results... Power Rankings aren't updated during the playoffs, apparently.
The Giants are ranked 9th by ESPN... 8th by CBS... and 10th by SI. That's an average of 9th. The Patriots are ranked 4th by ESPN... 3rd by CBS... and 3rd by SI. That's an average of 3.333, repeating of course. I'm so glad I got to hammer that reference into the ground one final time for the year. The pick is the Patriots. LOOOOOGAN MANNNNKINS.
Accuscore (12-8) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
Accuscore sees the Patriots winning 55 percent of the time... the Giants winning 44 percent... and David Tyree catching a helmet to the balls while he watches at home one percent.
By the way, if Accuscore wins again this year, I'm going to eat my hat. Here's the scenario. If the Patriots win, Accuscore gets sole possession of first place. If the Giants win, Tecmo Super Bowl gets sole possession of first place. This development, and this development only, has given me a horse in this race and I will be vehemently cheering for the Giants.- More miserable fan base (9-11) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
I truly cannot believe I'm typing this, but because of the 2008 Super Bowl, the Patriots are the more miserable fan base. The Giants won one more recently. That seals it. Just typing that sentence now makes me the most miserable of all. - The opposite of my pick (11-9) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I have been thinking the Patriots will win for the past two weeks... even if I'm now rooting the other direction. There's a great vengeance storyline here. The Patriots dynasty is playing with house money here. They just have the feeling of a team that expects to win. Therefore, the opposite of my pick is the Giants.
This list was published on Saturday, February 4, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
