11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 1, Lions at Buccaneers
Published Saturday, September 10, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
The NFL picks are back!
And this year, I'm happy to welcome in a sponsor for the picks. The fine and wise sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks reached out to me and I was happy to have them along. In fact, one of their experts will be providing a pick each week for us. Usually they charge money for that kind of thing because they're very, very good. Of course, the question arises... will the fact that he does it professionally make him more skilled than my parents' dog or my comparison of the teams' handsomeness?
For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
For this first week, we're picking a tight game between two trendy teams. The Detroit Lions are at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The line on the game is Tampa Bay -1.5, and this year, we ARE picking with spreads.
[Edited after the game: The Lions beat the Buccaneers on the road.]
This list was published on Saturday, September 10, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, September 10, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
The NFL picks are back!
And this year, I'm happy to welcome in a sponsor for the picks. The fine and wise sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks reached out to me and I was happy to have them along. In fact, one of their experts will be providing a pick each week for us. Usually they charge money for that kind of thing because they're very, very good. Of course, the question arises... will the fact that he does it professionally make him more skilled than my parents' dog or my comparison of the teams' handsomeness?
For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
For this first week, we're picking a tight game between two trendy teams. The Detroit Lions are at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The line on the game is Tampa Bay -1.5, and this year, we ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (0-0) - Everyone loves Tecmo Super Bowl and I would never, ever get rid of it.
This week, the 20-year-old video game saw the Lions just destroying the Buccaneers. Barry Sanders had 100 yards rushing but Rodney Peete dominated -- the rarely-seen five touchdown passes. The Buccaneers also managed to fumble on literally every possession in the second quarter. So with a dominant performance, the pick is the Lions.- Laska, my parents' dog (0-0) - Laska returns for her third season. She doesn't quite walk as well as she used to but I wasn't going to take the picks away from her and let my young asshole of a dog named Reggie take over. Laska deserves her weekly treats for picking games, and she's got the role for life, like a Supreme Court justice. Or "60 Minutes" anchor.
According to my mom, Laska went with the Lions definitively. She's such a good Midwestern dog sometimes. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (0-0) - Frankly, I'm stunned that the Detroit Lions are even playing this game. From all the preseason hype I was operating under the assumption that this team -- which, oh by the way, is 8-40 straight up over the last three years -- had received a bye into the playoffs. The Lions are "Everybody’s Sleeper Team" this year. And as the Houston Texans have shown us (repeatedly) over the last three years, that is a recipe for karmic gambling disaster.
But if they are as good as everyone thinks they are, then these are the types of games that the Lions need to win. The line has been bet down from 3.0, indicating heavy action on the Lions. But that means next to nothing. This game is going to come down to whether or not they can execute in the red zone against Tampa's Cover-2. Fortunately for Detroit they prepare for Chicago’s version of that defense twice a year so they should be prepared.
And I will say that this Lions club has been playing like its hair is on fire throughout the preseason (just look at their thrashing of New England's first team to see what I mean). So if they can transfer that emotion to this spot, and if they can get enough front-line defensive pressure to slow down Tampa's running game, then I think that this is a winnable game for them. I’ll bite on the Lions in this spot and I think that catching the points here is a decent value play. Take the Lions +1.5.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (0-0) - Last year, I had three or more readers predict the game. And it worked well -- the reader picks method finished in second place. It's back this year. If you're interested in making a pick, let me know on Twitter @11points.
This week I'm joined by three long-time readers and pickers, lending their expertise to this game...@campbelliah - "Detroit! I think this is a big year for them. And yes, I am enjoying my ride on this bandwagon."
Steve is referencing when he and I were both at Northwestern's 2010 Outback Bowl game in Tampa, by the way. And with three votes, the pick is the Lions.
@celestialaly - "im taking detroit."
@steven_blanck - "Detroit, solid d and healthy stafford. also when have I ever been disappointed in a game played at Raymond James stadium?"
If the Lions win, all three will pick again next week... if they lose, there will be three new pickers
Handsomer players (0-0) - Last year, one of the pick methods was the "looseness" of each team's cheerleaders. That was pretty subjective. This year, we're going anti-misogynistic and anti-subjective.
Handsomely symmetrical Josh Freeman.
The Wall Street Journal had an analysis done, ranking all of the teams by attractiveness. They used the popular scientific tool of attractiveness judgment -- facial symmetry -- and ranked every team's owner, coach, and 10 representative players by handsomeness.
So, because looks equals success, the better-looking team will be the pick each week. The Lions rank 13th in the NFL in attractiveness... the Buccaneers easily toast them, ranking fifth. Is there anything Josh Freeman CAN'T do?- Previous 11 head-to-head results (0-0) - I wanted to include a little history. It's like the opposite of what MacGruber says -- the players have changed, but the game is the same.
Detroit leads the all-time regular season series, 28-25 -- including one that ended Detroit's recent monumental losing streak. In the last 11, though, Tampa has won seven of 11. The pick is the Buccaneers.
Battle of mascots adorableness (0-0) - In the past I've done match-ups based off the teams' nicknames. This time I'm comparing their actual, costumed mascot who runs around the stadium. And the winner will be based on the only fair criteria: Adorableness.
Detroit features Roary. He's listed at 10 paws high, his dream is to be king of the jungle, and his favorite book is The Lion, the Witch, and the Wardrobe. I guess Upton Sinclair's The Jungle is just a little too raw for him.
Tampa Bay features Captain Fear. His official back story says he was picked up off the shores of Clearwater. Like so, so many drunken Floridians. His hobbies include surfing, jet skiing, sword tricks, and attending birthday parties.
Roary has him beat in adorableness by a mile. The pick is easily the Lions.- Power rankings powerhouse (0-0) - Power rankings are an inescapable part of sports websites. They're also officially meaningless -- which is why I want to put them to the test. For this, I will average the power rankings from ESPN, CBS Sports and CNN/SI -- the team that's ranked higher overall wins.
The Lions are ranked 16th, 20th, 16th respectively; the Buccaneers are ranked 12th, 13th and 15th.
Accuscore (0-0) - As last year's winning method (with a 16-5 record) it gets its spot back this year. Even in today's wild and crazy NFL, apparently a computer running 10,000 simulations is still better than people.
For this first game, there's nothing up in the air, though... it sees the Buccaneers as the clear favorite, 55 percent to 44 percent. With a one percent chance that Ndamukong Suh rips someone's head off or injury-prone Matthew Stafford's head simply falls off and the game is called a tie.- More miserable fan base (0-0) - I'll try to keep this one statistics based, but sometimes you just kinda know. Basically, each week I'll determine which fan base is more desperate for a winner and assume that will give their team the extra oomph to pull things out.
No brainer here. Tampa Bay won a Super Bowl within the past decade; the Lions have never won a damn thing and had the NFL's only 0-16 season. This category was almost made for the Lions. - The opposite of my pick (0-0) - Last year was the first time in three seasons I finished with a record over .500 -- I was 11-10. And it was because I went with the opposite of what I truly believed. So I'm going to ride that wave again and see if the opposite of my instincts can once again pay off.
I like Detroit in this game, especially with the points. I think the Lions have a ton to prove and they didn't play the preseason like it was the preseason -- they were trying to establish a winning culture early. So I think the Lions should handle this one in proper fashion.
Therefore, my pick is the Buccaneers.
[Edited after the game: The Lions beat the Buccaneers on the road.]
This list was published on Saturday, September 10, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
