11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 10, Redskins at Dolphins
Published Saturday, November 12, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins. Probably won't be beautiful. The line is Miami -3.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, November 12, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, November 12, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the Washington Redskins at Miami Dolphins. Probably won't be beautiful. The line is Miami -3.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (7-2) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
This one wasn't as close as the score looks. Miami dominated the ball, Dan Marino threw for three touchdowns, and Mark Rypien and company couldn't get anything going. Also, as a Browns fan, I have trouble watching even a video game version of Earnest Byner. The pick is the Dolphins.- Laska, my parents' dog (5-4) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
This week she ate the Miami treat, which is good, because my mom was afraid Laska was always going to the team on the left. This week she went right. She's a wild card, that one. Laska picks the Dolphins. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (4-5) - It's always tricky to handicap two terrible teams like this because you can just never know which one is going to show up and play sound, motivated football and which one is going to, well, be themselves. Washington has been a total disaster over the last month. But what can you expect from a team that went into the year with a quarterback depth chart of Rex Grossman and John Beck and was like, "Yup. We're all set"?
Miami hasn't been nearly as bad as their 1-7 record suggests. Their defense is in the top 10 in points allowed and they have blown 4th quarter leads in three of their games. They realistically could be 4-3 right now and if they were this spread would be closer to 6.0.
Would I trust my money on Miami laying points? No chance. But they are better than the alternative. Take the Dolphins.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (6-3) - Last week three readers were eliminated by picking the Raiders; the two who picked the Broncos survived. They're joined this week by three new prognosticators...
@REZilm - "both teams have had a rough season, but the Redskins are looking to pull out if their recent skid, so I'll stick with them."
So with a 3-2 margin, the pick is the Dolphins.
@AtTheStars455 - "Wow, tough one - can both teams lose? But seriously, I'll take the 1 game winning streak (Dolphins) over the 4 game losing streak"
@Loki_013 - "Beck was beat out by Rex Grossman for the starting job to start the season. Enough said. I'll take Miami"
@MikaelLevin - "Fins are one of the worst teams in the league defensively. Skins haven't done much this season... tough call, but I pick the Skins"
@Gnick_ATL - "Miami's D has been strong lately, and the Washington O has been terrible. Miami wins 24-10. Couldn't pay me to watch, though."
Handsomer players (8-1) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Rexy. Sexy?
Both of these teams are in the upper half of the league. Miami checks in 14th overall... but the Redskins have a special place on this website as the NFL's 11th handsomest team, so they're the pick.
And I kind of love that this method is leading right now, being correct eight of nine times.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (5-4) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
Stretches back to 1974 and includes the 1982 Super Bowl (which Washington won). But the Dolphins have won six of the past 11 -- and even though I'm sure they'd trade all of them for that Super Bowl, the pick is the Dolphins. (For what it's worth, they've met 12 times total... the one time that wasn't included was the 1972 Super Bowl that the undefeated Dolphins won.)
Battle of mascot adorableness (6-3) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
Sadly, we've got another one-sided affair as the Dolphins have their semi-adorable mascot T.D. and the Redskins -- I'm guessing for political correctness reasons -- don't have a mascot. The pick is the Dolphins.- Power rankings powerhouse (3-6) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
Washington is 22nd in ESPN... 22nd in CBS... and 25th in SI. That's an average of 23. Miami is 31st in ESPN... 30th in CBS... and 30th in SI. That's an average of 33.333 repeating of course, meaning the pick is the Redskins.
Accuscore (4-5) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
It's got a real jones for Miami this week, it sees the Dolphins winning 60 percent of the time, the Redskins 39 percent, and the game being called off because T.D. gets kidnapped by Ray Finkel 1 percent.- More miserable fan base (4-5) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
This one was tricky. I have Redskins friends who are absolutely tortured by the team, and rightfully so -- it's been a full generation of ineptness and mismanagement. But the Dolphins haven't exactly set the world on fire during that time period either.
So let's go to the numbers. The Dolphins have two Super Bowl championships, in 1972 and 1973. They have three Super Bowl losses, 1971, 1982 and 1984. They have 22 playoff appearances, including three since 2000. 2008 is most recent.
The Redskins have three Super Bowl championships, all more recent than Miami's: 1982, 1987 and 1991. They have two Super Bowl losses, in 1972 and 1983. They also have 22 playoff appearances, including two since 2005. 2007 is most recent.
It's a photo finish. But I'm going to ultimately say with three Super Bowl wins -- which is more than Miami *and* all of which happened more recently than Miami's -- the Dolphins are the more tortured fan base. - The opposite of my pick (4-5) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I have virtually no knowledge base on this one as I've feverishly avoided watching either of these teams play this year. But I do know the Redskins are starting John Beck on the road. And even against a team that's viewed as one of the worst in the league, that seems like a shaky plan. So I do think the Dolphins will win and cover -- therefore the opposite of my pick is the Redskins.
This list was published on Saturday, November 12, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Did you enjoy this list?
11 Points is a one-man operation that relies on word-of-mouth & repeat readers.
So please consider sharing this list using the social media icons in the box, and/or joining the 11 Points mailing list, Facebook fan page and Twitter feed.
11 Points is a one-man operation that relies on word-of-mouth & repeat readers.
So please consider sharing this list using the social media icons in the box, and/or joining the 11 Points mailing list, Facebook fan page and Twitter feed.
11 Famous Bands Who Used to Have Very Different Names
Published Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Music
11 Worst Fast Food Restaurants - 11 Points Countdown
Published Monday, May 14, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Really Old Actors Who Played Teenagers on TV
Published Friday, May 11, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category TV
11 Best Cheap Ways to Get Drunk - 11 Points Countdown
Published Wednesday, May 9, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Random Thoughts on The Avengers
Published Monday, May 7, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Movies
11 Most Depressing Place Names In the US
Published Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:00:00 AM under the category Travel
Full Archive
Published Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Music
11 Worst Fast Food Restaurants - 11 Points Countdown
Published Monday, May 14, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Really Old Actors Who Played Teenagers on TV
Published Friday, May 11, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category TV
11 Best Cheap Ways to Get Drunk - 11 Points Countdown
Published Wednesday, May 9, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Random Thoughts on The Avengers
Published Monday, May 7, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Movies
11 Most Depressing Place Names In the US
Published Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:00:00 AM under the category Travel
Full Archive
11 Points is comprised entirely of (theoretically) humorous 11-item lists covering a giant swath of topics.
It's composed entirely by this stern-
faced goon to the right. His name
is Sam. Screw Flanders.
It's composed entirely by this stern-
faced goon to the right. His name
is Sam. Screw Flanders.
11 Points Mailing List
updates, contests, exclusives
updates, contests, exclusives
(advertisement)
Friends, Bloggers and Well-Wishers
(Meaning they wish me no specific harm.)
(advertisement)
(Meaning they wish me no specific harm.)
(advertisement)
11 Points is a collection of exhaustively-researched, meticulously-written, theoretically-humorous 11-item lists, covering topics ranging from TV and movies to the Internet and video games to food and dating to politics and race relations.
It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
