11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 11, Seahawks at Rams
Published Saturday, November 19, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is a potentially riveting battle out of the NFC West cellar between the Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams. The line is St. Louis -1.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
[Edited from the future: Seattle won handily and covered the spread.]
This list was published on Saturday, November 19, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, November 19, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is a potentially riveting battle out of the NFC West cellar between the Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams. The line is St. Louis -1.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (8-2) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
The Los Angeles Rams won this one 24-0... and it wasn't that close. Every time Seattle got close to the endzone they blew it -- a fumble, a Dave Krieg interception or a missed field goal. Meanwhile the Rams... featuring the "other" Curt Warner and the awesomely-named Cleveland Gary... dominated the game and took it easily.- Laska, my parents' dog (6-4) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for. This week she at the treat representing the Rams. I didn't get any more details than that, so I don't know the nuances of the treat eating I usually provide.
- Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (5-5) - The Seahawks are coming off a huge home win against Baltimore and they are showing signs of life. They are starting to push people around at the line of scrimmage and hold big edges over St. Louis on both the offensive and defensive lines. Also, the Seahawks have dominated this series, sweeping last year and taking eight of 10 in this series overall.
So for all of those reasons, I am going with St. Louis. I know it seems counter-intuitive but I am going to side with the books on this one as the public pounds the visitors. Things are always screwy in the NFC West and things rarely play out like they "should." This is a revenge spot for the Rams after losing in Week 17 to get bounced out of a playoff slot last year and I think they find a way to get this win.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (7-3) - Last week three readers got it right, and they're back. They're joined by two brand new prognosticators...
@AtTheStars455 - "As a fellow Middlebury alum, I think Seattle will win it on the strength of former Midd-kid Steve Hauschka's hot foot."
So with 3 votes, the pick is the Rams.
@Loki_013 - "The NFC west shouldn't really be considered NFL football. I'll take St. Louis because Bradford finally has a WR in Lloyd."
@Gnick_ATL - "A rematch of last years "Do we really need an NFC west team in the playoffs?" game. StL gets "revenge" winning week 11 by 11."
@Zbg333 - "I'll take Seattle because St. Louis is going to play like St. Louis."
@jonology - "I'm going with the Rams. The only way the Seahawks can win is with the help of replacement players - is Shane Falco available?"
Handsomer players (8-2) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games? So far, the answer is YES... this method leads the pack.
xx.
The Seahawks are... not a handsome group. They rank 27th in the NFL, with only five teams below them. And the Rams aren't one. They are the (cowardly) 10th handsomest team in the league, giving them an easy victory.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (6-4) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
Since they've been in the same division since 2002, they've played twice a year. So their previous 11 head-to-head matchups only extend back to 2005. And it's the most one-sided we've seen so far.
The Seahawks have won TEN of the last 11 meetings, with the only St. Louis win coming at home last year. The pick is overwhemingly the Seahawks.
Battle of mascot adorableness (7-3) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
The Seahawks have Blitz, a plush incarnation of an imaginary animal. Apparently this is how he looks after a massive facial reconstruction in 2004 to make him less menacing to opponents and more friendly toward children.
The Rams have Rampage, who only came around in 2010. He was named Rampage in a vote -- it beat out Archie, Rammer, Ramsey and Rush.
Neither one has biographical info that sways me so I'm going on pure adoreableness here... and that's definitely Rampage. So the Rams get this one.- Power rankings powerhouse (3-7) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better. To the bottom of the Power Rankings we go...
Seattle is ranked 24th in ESPN... 27th in CBS... and 23rd in SI. That's an average of 24.667. St. Louis is ranked 30th in ESPN... 30th in CBS... and 30th in SI. That's an average of 30. I did that without a calculator. The pick is the Seahawks.
Accuscore (5-5) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
Accuscore likes the visiting Seahawks here. It has Seattle winning 52 percent of the time, St. Louis winning 47 percent, and the game being called when both teams try to resign to better position themselves for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes one percent.- More miserable fan base (5-5) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Well this is easy. St. Louis won a Super Bowl during their spectacular 1999 season. And they are barely even bothered by the Rams' struggles thanks to the World Series. Meanwhile Seattle is one of the most tortured sports cities in the country. The Seahawks got robbed of a Super Bowl win a few years back, and have never won a title. Pick is the Seahawks in a landslide. - The opposite of my pick (4-6) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I am really up in the air on this one, but I feel like St. Louis at home is a slightly better team. The 1.5-point line actually seems about right. I think they'll gut out a game with a score like 17-15, so I'm picking the Rams. Therefore the opposite of my pick is the Seahawks.
[Edited from the future: Seattle won handily and covered the spread.]
This list was published on Saturday, November 19, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
