11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 12, Tampa Bay at Tennessee
Published Saturday, November 26, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Tennessee Titans. The line is Tennessee -3.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, November 26, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, November 26, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Tennessee Titans. The line is Tennessee -3.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (8-3) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
This was probably the most intriguing Tecmo simulation I've had in the three years I've been doing it. Tampa Bay is usually pretty awful in Tecmo, but came out and had *two* defensive touchdowns in the first quarter on fumble recoveries. Then they put together two TDs for a 28-0 halftime lead.
In the second half, it was them against the clock. The Oilers (aka the pre-Titans) scored at will and Tampa couldn't put anything together. Ultimately, a late field goal was enough to put it out of reach and keep the upset alive. So the pick is the Buccaneers.- Laska, my parents' dog (6-5) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
This week was another new move for Laska. She walked up to the Tennessee treat, sniffed it, licked it... then walked over and ate the Tampa Bay treat. Not sure what all that means for the game, but she's going with the Buccaneers. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (5-6) - At the start of the year I was the only handicapper or football analyst in the country that predicted that Tennessee was going to win the AFC South. They have been hanging in there but if they are going to make a move in the South this is a must-win game.
The problem is that the Titans haven't been very good as a favorite lately and are much better in an underdog role. Tampa Bay has been a big disappointment and they are coming off a week where they put in an emotional effort against Green Bay. The public like the Bucs here, with 60 percent of the action going on Tampa Bay. But we'll go the other way and look for Titans to find a way to get it done. Go against the public and lay the points.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (7-4) - Last week only two of the five readers correctly picked Seattle to beat St. Louis. So they're back, and joined by three new visionaries...
@Zbg333 - "Tampa Bay is a better team playing a better game."
With three votes, the pick is the Buccaneers.
@AtTheStars455 - "Titans have more to play for in their division since the 1st place Texans are now vulnerable without Schaub - I'll take Tennessee."
@Piercewise - "The Titans are at home and have more to play for. I like them over the reeling Bucs."
@BeardieMcwarren - "The Bucs have been sliding but I think they recover this week. I say Bucs win it 24-14."
@AdamLetterman - "I'll take Tampa Bay"
Handsomer players (8-3) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Matt Hasselbeck -- handsome?
Tampa Bay is a pretty damn handsome team, ranking fifth in the NFL. The Titans only squeak into the top half, ranking 15th. So the Buccaneers take this pretty handily.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (7-4) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
For the first time this year, we don't have 11 matchups. Tampa Bay has only played Houston/Tennessee nine times ever. And it's lopsided -- Tennessee has won seven of the nine. Tampa did win their most recent matchup (2007), but that's not nearly enough. The pick is the Titans.
Battle of mascot adorableness (7-4) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
Tampa Bay has Captain Fear, who might be the least adorable mascot of all. I don't find his unibrow endearing.
Tennessee has T-Rac, who's decently adorable. His official bio is fairly generic, although I do love that they made his saying "I didn't do it." Krusty should hire him. The pick is the Titans.- Power rankings powerhouse (4-7) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
Tampa Bay is ranked 20th by ESPN... 21st by CBS... and 22nd by SI. That's an average of 21. Tennesee is ranked 16th by ESPN... 17th by CBS... and 22nd by SI. That's an average of 18.333, repeating of course, and good enough for a Titans win.
Accuscore (6-5) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
Here they see the Titans winning 56 percent of the time... the Bucs winning 43 percent... and the game being called off one percent when we find out Chris Johnson has been playing so poorly because he's actually a corpse and the entire season has been Tennessee's football-tinged version of "Weekend at Bernie's".- More miserable fan base (6-5) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
It's hard to picture Tampa Bay NOT being a tortured franchise, but they lose this. It feels like forever ago at this point, but they DID actually win a Super Bowl within the past decade. The Houston/Tennessee franchise hasn't won a title since the 1961 AFL Championship. So the Titans are more tortured. - The opposite of my pick (5-6) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I actually like Tampa Bay here. I think they're putting something good together and Tennessee is due to really fade out. So I think the Buccaneers will win, therefore I am going with the Titans.
This list was published on Saturday, November 26, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
