11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 13, San Diego at Jacksonville
Published Saturday, December 3, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game features the crashing and burning San Diego Chargers (hoping their annual December hot streak happens) taking on the crashed and burned Jacksonville Jaguars (who just blew up everything from the coach to the owner). The line is Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog at home, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, December 3, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, December 3, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game features the crashing and burning San Diego Chargers (hoping their annual December hot streak happens) taking on the crashed and burned Jacksonville Jaguars (who just blew up everything from the coach to the owner). The line is Jacksonville as a 2.5-point underdog at home, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (8-4) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl. Only when the Panthers or Jaguars are involved, I have to improvise, since they weren't in the 1991 game. Fortunately, the Internet loves doing nerdy things, and there are ample modded versions of Tecmo Super Bowl to choose from. So this week, I simulated the game using a version of Tecmo updated with 1996 teams and rosters.
This game was actually pretty exciting. Jacksonville went up big and San Diego just kept chipping away. But one of the players with my favorite names of the '90s -- Natrone Means "Business" -- was too much. He scored once rushing, once receiving; and the Jaguars jammed it out, 28-24.- Laska, my parents' dog (6-6) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
Laska's pensive season continues as she apparently walked up to the Jacksonville treat, examined it, then vetoed it and ate the treat representing the Chargers. Then she walked back and ate the Jacksonville treat. After that my parents quickly hung up with me because, as my dad said, "Laska's now eaten two biscuits and we haven't had dinner yet. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (6-6) - Does it get any lamer than this? Here we have two dead-end teams wasting our time with Monday Night Football as San Diego makes the walk of shame into Jacksonville this week. There is zero value betting on either of these teams because unless you are in the locker room it is impossible to guess who is going to be mailing it in and who will be playing hard.
Jacksonville just fired its coach and transitioned to a new owner. Who knows what it is like in that franchise right now. Rumors have recently leaked out that the Chargers are going to do what they should have three years ago and fire Norv Turner, so who is to say how motivated the Chargers are?
I wouldn't touch this game. But with a gun to my head I would bite on the home underdog. The Jaguars already knocked off Baltimore on MNF earlier this year and with a home crowd and new owners to play for I think they get a slight motivational edge. Mix in the points and the fact that 75 percent of all bets in this one are coming in on the Chargers and we will fade the public and take the home puppy.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (7-5) - Last week only two of the five readers correctly picked the Titans to beat the Buccaneers. They're back, and joined by a new crew...
@AtTheStars455 - "SD is a good team having a bad season; JAX is just a bad team. SD will snap their losing streak and win easily"
The fifth pick still isn't in. But with 3 votes, the pick is the Chargers regardless.
@Piercewise - "The Chargers are bad, but the Jags are simply awful. Plus they're dealing with a whole host of distractions. I'll take San Diego."
@ShutUpBender - "This may be the worst MNF ever. Jags HC fired, Bolts' soon to follow. But, the Chargers still have a QB, so I'll take them."
@TheGIGGAS_OS - "As a Jag fan (and registered unicorn), my homer pick is JAX +2.5. Mel Tucker has lit a fire under them; they'll come to play."
Handsomer players (8-4) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew, and his dog, are ever so slightly handsomer than anyone the Chargers can offer.
This is the closest one we've had, with one team ranked 22nd handsomest in the NFL and one team ranked 23rd handsomest. There's just 0.03 points separating them on the WSJ's scale. Of course, that means nothing because you (and I) don't really know the scale or what that truly means. But it looks close, and it is.
The Jaguars are 22nd, the Chargers are 23rd. So by the slimmest of margins, the pick is the Jaguars.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (8-4) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
But we don't have 11 here. In fact, amazingly, these two teams have only played four times: 2003, 2004, 2007 and 2010. And that series is tied, 2-2. So we go to the points. San Diego has scored 110 in those games, Jacksonville has scored 85. So the pick is the Chargers -- and this game is a rubber match.
Battle of mascot adorableness (8-4) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
That Jacksonville mascot is Jaxson de Ville. I emailed the team to ask why his head looks like the product of inbreeding and if those are teeth or he's foaming at the mouth from rabies... so far, no response. Fortunately for Jaxson, he's going up against one of the ugliest mascots in history, BOLTMAN. So even though I really wouldn't want to hug either of these mascots without getting a full battery of vaccinations, I reluctantly deem Jaxson de Ville of the Jaguars more adorable.- Power rankings powerhouse (5-7) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
San Diego is ranked 22nd by ESPN... 23rd by CBS... and 20th by SI. That's an average of 21.667. Jacksonville is ranked 29th by ESPN... 30th by CBS... and 29th by SI. That's an average of 29.333, repeating of course. So the pick is easily the Chargers.
Accuscore (7-5) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
This week it's completely one-sided. Accuscore sees the Chargers winning 68 percent of the time... the Jaguars winning 31 percent... and one percent of the games being washed away by Nick Novak's urine.- More miserable fan base (7-5) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Interesting one here. Since the Jaguars started playing in 1995, they've had six playoff appearances, two division championships, and no Super Bowl appearances. They've been threatened with relocation forever. And in annual team popularity rankings, they regularly come in dead last. That all adds up to a depressed fanbase, but is there more apathy and indifference than genuine misery?
The Chargers were established in 1960. They won a championship (AFL Championship, not Super Bowl) in 1963. Since joining the NFL, they've had 12 playoff appearances, 10 division championships, and one Super Bowl trip. They lost. More recently, they've suffered a horrific string of collapses that have prematurely ended a long run that should've yielded better results.
It's a really difficult call, but I think the Chargers fans are more miserable -- they've actually seen a path to glory and had it snatched away. The Jaguars fans haven't even had that opportunity. In this case, tis worse to have loved and lost than to have never loved at all. - The opposite of my pick (6-6) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
The Chargers games are always on here in L.A. and yes, they are terrible. They're collapsing, and I don't know if their December winning streak is in the cards this year. Jacksonville just fired their coach, but the fresh blood might do some good -- people are always surprised when a midseason coaching change yields a first-game victory. So I am picking the Jaguars and the points... therefore, the opposite of my pick is the Chargers.
This list was published on Saturday, December 3, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
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