11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 15, New England at Denver
Published Saturday, December 17, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
All eyes are on this game thanks to the boiling-over Tim Tebow hype... so I figured we'd take our own crack at it -- New England Patriots at the Denver Broncos. The line is Patriots -6.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, December 17, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, December 17, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
All eyes are on this game thanks to the boiling-over Tim Tebow hype... so I figured we'd take our own crack at it -- New England Patriots at the Denver Broncos. The line is Patriots -6.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (9-5) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
The Patriots were pretty bad in 1991 and it shows, with Steve Grogan having trouble hitting even the widest open guys. Then again, Hart Lee Dykes was the best option -- and while it's a great name, even being on target to him seemed no guarantee of success. Elway and the Broncos dominated pretty much wire-to-wire except for a brief Patriots spurt in the closing minutes. As expected, the '91 Broncos dominated the '91 Pats.- Laska, my parents' dog (8-6) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for. Without hesitation, Laska ate the treat representing the Broncos. Surprising, since she's a Cleveland dog... I guess she wasn't alive in the late '80s and is also, you know, a dog.
- Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (6-8) - [Pick not yet in.]
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (9-5) - Last week three readers correctly picked the Texans to go on the road and beat the Bengals. They're back, and joined by two new entrants...
@AtTheStars455 - "Must stay true to my team (NE), but I do believe if anyone can come up with a way to stop Tebow, it's Belichick. Pats will cover."
So with four votes, the pick is the Patriots.
@Piercewise - "Almost can't believe I'm saying this, but I'll take the Broncos. Hopefully they can at least keep it close."
@Percinio - "God will be busy trying to persuade Christopher Hitchens that He exists, so with Tebow on his own I'm taking the Pats by lots."
@Bourtweet - "as much as I would love Tebow to pull out the win,I think Denvers defence will leak to many points NE for the win."
@kah3sav - "Patriots are the pick God's younger son goes down"
Handsomer players (8-6) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
John Fox = silver fox?
The Patriots fare pretty well, coming in 10th in the league. Keeping in mind they do count coaches, so they're overcoming the Belichick handicap here. The Broncos, however, are the second-handsomest team in the league. For what it's worth, the study arrived at that with Kyle Orton at QB and Brandon Lloyd at WR and they haven't re-run the numbers on the Broncos of today. But it's the best data we've got, so we roll with it. If that's strategy's good enough for Congress it's good enough for week 15 of the fourth season of 11 Points NFL picks.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (9-5) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
There's a lot of history here, as the teams have played 43 times, including twice in the postseason. One of those is included in their previous 11 meetings (a 2005 AFC divisional playoff game). We stretch back to 1998 and find... Denver has really handled New England. Surprising, considering New England's dominant decade and Denver's ups and downs. I heard on ESPN yesterday that Denver is the only team that Brady has a losing record against -- seems far-fetched, but when has ESPN ever been wrong? The Broncos won seven of the past 11 games, including that playoff game. And even though we don't count it, they won 10 straight before 1998, meaning Denver is 17-4 since 1980 against New England. The pick is the Broncos.
Battle of mascot adorableness (8-6) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
Neither of these mascots triggered my adorableness meter earlier this season. Pat the Patriot has that smirk that's been the unofficial facial expression of the Patriots franchise ever since Drew Bledsoe got hurt. And I thought Miles looked more like an apocalypse-ready horse than a cuddly mascot for kids. It's virtually a coin flip for me, but I guess I have to go with the Patriots because that Denver mascot just seems like he'd be difficult to be around.- Power rankings powerhouse (7-7) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
The Patriots are ranked 5th by ESPN... 6th by CBS... and 5th by SI. That's an average of 5.333 repeating of course. The Broncos are ranked 9th by ESPN... 9th by CBS... and 9th by SI. Turn those 9s upside-down and you get 666. That must somehow be connected to Tebow. The pick is the Patriots.
Accuscore (8-6) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
Accuscore sees this pretty cut-and-dry. It's got the Patriots winning 66 percent of the time, the Broncos winning 33 percent, and the game being called one percent when Bridget Moynahan and Gisele Bundchen start brawling on the field for Tom Brady's heart. Just kidding. Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Jesus Tebow Tebowing God Tebow Christmas Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow Tebow.- More miserable fan base (8-6) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Both teams have multiple Super Bowl wins in the past 15 years; the Patriots won three versus Denver's two, and their three are more recent. It's just that easy. And ending up with the 18-1 season doesn't count as torture. The pick is the Broncos. - The opposite of my pick (7-7) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
Maybe I'm a sucker -- no, definitely, I am a sucker -- but I think the Broncos might be able to shock the world. Tebow has won at every level before, and he's winning now. As they say, he knows how to win. But so do the Patriots. They win constantly. They've been the bullies of the NFL for a decade. I think they take the foot off the gas, though, and Denver makes it close -- New England actually does have the league's worst defense. I want Denver and the 6.5 points... therefore the opposite of my pick is the Patriots to cover.
This list was published on Saturday, December 17, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
