11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 16, Oakland at Kansas City
Published Friday, December 23, 2011 at 04:00:00 PM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the Oakland Raiders, who are clinging to a spot in the playoff race at 7-7, against the Kansas City Chiefs -- who, at 6-8, are not mathematically eliminated either. The Chiefs ended Green Bay's undefeated season last week, the whole thing is nuts, and the line was only KC by 0.5 meaning this thing's a toss-up. Human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads this year; let's get into it.
This list was published on Friday, December 23, 2011 at 04:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, December 23, 2011 at 04:00:00 PM
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This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the Oakland Raiders, who are clinging to a spot in the playoff race at 7-7, against the Kansas City Chiefs -- who, at 6-8, are not mathematically eliminated either. The Chiefs ended Green Bay's undefeated season last week, the whole thing is nuts, and the line was only KC by 0.5 meaning this thing's a toss-up. Human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads this year; let's get into it.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (9-6) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
Every time I simulate a game with the Raiders, I'm appalled at how infrequently the computer decides to call plays for Bo Jackson -- one of the greatest video game athletes of all time. As you can see from the stats, the Raiders had 15 running plays... and Bo Jackson gained the most yardage even though he received only 40 percent of them. Marcus Allen was horrible.
A late score put the game into overtime where Kansas City won the toss and, in the NFL sudden death zone, that was all it took. They marched down and easily kicked a game-winning field goal. The pick is the Chiefs.- Laska, my parents' dog (8-7) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
Bad news. My parents are on vacation and had taken Laska to the kennel (sorry -- "dog hotel") before she could make the pick. So I had my dog, Reggie, take over the job. He was rescued from the streets of Compton, so I was zero percent surprised when he went for the treat representing the Raiders. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (6-8*) - "In the NFL there is something known as the Up-Down Theory. It states that a team that played very well and was way 'up' last week is going to come back down to earth the coming week. And vice versa. This is a great example, as Kansas City is in a letdown spot after their huge upset over Green Bay last week. The public loves the Chiefs this weekend but they aren't even a token three-point favorite at Arrowhead and that is a red flag to me. I don't trust Oakland at all and they are coming off a heartbreaking loss. But they are 5-0 ATS in their last five trips to Kansas City and the road team is 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings. The underdog is 18-7-1 ATS in this series and any time I can bet against a Romeo Crennel team I will take it. I will take the Raiders."
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (10-5) - Last week four of the five readers successfully picked the Patriots to cover the spread against the Broncos. I didn't expect a 100 percent response rate this week because of the holidays, but got three so far to go on, including AtTheStars on her eighth week in a row...
@AtTheStars455 - "Seems like a classic setup for a letdown game for KC after last week's big win. Oakland will win to keep the division race tight"
So with a 2-1 margin, the pick is the Raiders.
@Bourtweet - "after ending GB's undefeated streak I fancy the chiefs to keep it going against the raiders.KC for the win."
@Percinio - "Kyle Orton's had his good game for the year so it's an easy choice to go for the Raiders."
Handsomer players (8-7) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
This is Matt Cassel's high school football photo. It's very Zack Morris.
The Raiders finished in 24th place in the league in handsomeness... which usually isn't enough to win. Fortunately for them, they're playing the Chiefs, who have the ignoble distinction of being... drumroll... the NFL's ugliest team! By a pretty decent margin, too. They finished two full handsomeness points behind the second-ugliest team, the Eagles. It's not just the Carson Palmer versus Kyle Orton matchup that's going to lead to ugly football when these two play. There has to be a winner, and it's the Raiders.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (9-6) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
As division rivals, these two play twice a year, so the previous 11 matchups only take us to mid-2005. And since then, Kansas City has won six and Oakland has won five. So the pick is the Chiefs. In their all-time series, the Chiefs also lead with a record of 52 wins, 47 losses and two ties.
Battle of mascot adorableness (9-6) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
The Raiders don't have an official mascot, and the Legion of Doom spikes guy can't fill in, so this was a default win for the Chiefs. Not that they needed it. That K.C. Wolf is goddam adorable. He can blow my house down any time.
...
... is what I would say on a sitcom. And then FunnyBot would say "Awwwwwkkkkkwwaard!" And then kill us all.- Power rankings powerhouse (8-7) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. So far... not going great. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
The Raiders are ranked 19th by ESPN... 15th by CBS... and 19th by SI. That's an average of 17.667. The Chiefs are ranked 22nd by ESPN... 22nd by CBS... and 21st by SI. That's an average of 21.667. That's all so meh. I can't even force-feed by weekly Leeroy Jenkins reference in. The pick is the Raiders.
Accuscore (9-6) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
I do so enjoy when Accuscore and the Vegas line disagree. Even though Kansas City is favored, Accuscore definitively disagrees. It has the Raiders winning 57 percent of the time... the Chiefs winning 42 percent... and the very under-the-radar KC-Oakland rap beef causing the game to get called off one percent. Seriously. Those two cities have a rap beef. Between that and the Kansas City-Memphis barbecue beef (beef meaning fight, not delicious, fall-off-the-bone brisket), KC is more ass-to-elbows deep in rivalries than you'd ever suspect.- More miserable fan base (8-7) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Tough one here. Let's look at the breakdown.
KC has one Super Bowl win, but it was back in 1969 in Super Bowl IV. Since 1990, they've made 10 playoff appearances; since 2000, they've made three. They've won the division five times since 1990.
Oakland has three Super Bowl wins, 1976, 1980 and 1983. Since 1990 they've only had six playoff appearances; since 2000, they've had three, but none since 2002. They also moved away from Oakland to play in L.A. from 1982 to 1994.
It's a real tough call there -- neither fan base has a whole lot to smile about -- but ultimately, I'm going to say fans of the Chiefs are more tortured. Oakland's three Super Bowls trump KC's occasional playoff appearances throughout the past decade. But it's close. - The opposite of my pick (8-7) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I have zero faith in Romeo Crennel. It's because I watched his horribleness when he was coaching the Browns. I think Kansas City is due for a letdown and the Raiders are going to keep their season interesting up until the end. Plus it's only fitting that their franchise, eternally associated with evil, would be competing for the AFC West title with Tebow and the Broncos. I think the Raiders win, therefore the opposite of my pick is the Chiefs.
This list was published on Friday, December 23, 2011 at 04:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
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