11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 17, Chicago at Minnesota
Published Friday, December 30, 2011 at 03:00:00 PM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game isn't one with playoff implications, but it is one featuring two teams that we haven't featured here all season. So it's got that going for it. We're doing banged-up Chicago at banged-up Minnesota. The line is Chicago -1.5 on the road, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Friday, December 30, 2011 at 03:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, December 30, 2011 at 03:00:00 PM
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This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game isn't one with playoff implications, but it is one featuring two teams that we haven't featured here all season. So it's got that going for it. We're doing banged-up Chicago at banged-up Minnesota. The line is Chicago -1.5 on the road, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (9-7) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
This one was a laugher, mostly because the Vikings insist on running a reverse, double reverse or double reverse flea flicker on every play. And the Bears just kept blowing them up. Plus Minnesota had five turnovers and two missed field goals. Just ugly all around. Why must the video game Vikings disrespect Herschel Walker like the real life Vikings? The Bears are the pick, 31-7.- Laska, my parents' dog (9-7) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
This week, Laska went directly for the Minnesota treat, paused briefly, then ate it. She never even glanced at the Chicago one. So she's definitively picking the Vikings. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (7-8*) - Nothing like a Caleb Hanie vs. Christian Ponder matchup to get your new year started right. These two teams are just playing out the string and this is one last obstacle to the offseason. But Chicago is the better team here and they were one quarterback injury away from the postseason. Minnesota’s secondary can't cover and now without Adrian Peterson they are out of options on the offensive side of the ball. I will back Brian Urlacher and the Bears defense here, and Chicago's huge edge on special teams should provide the difference in this one. Happy New Year!
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (11-5) - Last week two readers correctly picked the Raiders to beat the Chiefs. They're back, along with a few others -- although with this being the Christmas-to-NYE week I had no expectations of everyone getting their responses in.
@AtTheStars455 - "Despite their win last week, I just can't bring myself to pick Minnesota - they're just not a very good team. Chicago will win it."
So with three votes, the pick is the Vikings.
@Percinio - "I'm not sure McCown can handle the pressure of such an important game so I'm taking the Vikings."
@canzachbefunny - "I'll take Chicago. Though the Vikes have really done a good job of hiding the fact that they might be the worst team in football."
@MeekratEG - "I know little of football but much about comic strips. Therefore, Vikings win. There's no good bear characters out there."
@realsporlansky - "Minnesota. In memory of Adrian Peterson's knee."
Handsomer players (9-7) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
xx.
And this week, we're dealing with two very homely teams. The Bears check in as the 28th handsomest team in the NFL (which also makes them fifth ugliest, if you want to count backwards like a dick). But the Vikings score even worse, coming in 30th place (meaning they're third ugliest, only ahead of the Chiefs and Eagles). So the pick in this ugly-on-ugly violence is somehow the Bears.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (9-7) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
Both being in the same division, these two teams play constantly. Earlier this season, the Bears beat the Vikings at home, now they go for the sweep to try to salvage a .500 record. The past 11 meetings stretch back to 2006; the Bears have won seven and the Vikings four. So the pick is the Bears. (Although the Vikings lead the all-time series, 52-46-2. I really wish we had more ties these days.)
Battle of mascot adorableness (9-7) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
I like Staley Da Bear from Chicago a lot. First off, I like that the Bears are a "classic" franchise that actually has a mascot -- most of the franchises of their ilk seem to feel they're above having a mascot and they're not. Secondly, I think Staley Da Bear looks pretty cuddly and maybe a little slow. How can you resist? Meanwhile the Vikings have Ragnar, who's not bad, but not as adorable. He's better than the bald guy dressed as a Viking who used to run around at their games. The pick is the Bears.- Power rankings powerhouse (9-7) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
Chicago is rated 22nd by ESPN... 21st by CBS... and 21st by SI. That's an average of 21.333 repeating of course. Minnesota is rated 30th by ESPN... 30th by CBS... and 30th by SI. That's a consensus of 30th -- oddly enough, the exact same as their handsomeness ranking. The pick is the Bears.
Accuscore (10-6) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
This week, Accuscore sees a close one with the Bears winning 51 percent of the time, the Vikings winning 48 percent, and the game being canceled because every key player on both teams goes down with a horrific injury one percent.- More miserable fan base (8-8) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
It hasn't been a smooth ride for either but at least the Bears fans have an extremely memorable Super Bowl win to cling to from the past few decades. The Vikings just have That Game from 1998 they don't talk about anymore. (You know Gary Anderson hadn't missed a single kick all season before that, right?) The Vikings fans are more tortured, no doubt about it. - The opposite of my pick (8-8) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
This game doesn't exactly matter, and it's hard to see the teams being too excited about it, but I think the Bears are better on paper. And at least they can be motivated to go 8-8 and have something to build on after a snake-bitten season. So I think Chicago will win by more than a point... therefore, the opposite of my pick is the Vikings.
This list was published on Friday, December 30, 2011 at 03:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
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