11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 2, Browns at Colts
Published Saturday, September 17, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
It's week two of the NFL picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others abhor it.
And this year's picks are sponsored by the fine sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks.
Little change for week two -- Tecmo is back! For the past two years, I simulated the weekly game in the classic Tecmo Super Bowl game for NES. This year I initially planned to use it, but pulled it at the 11th hour. People basically came at me with pitchforks and torches. So it's back. And I've gone back and revised last week's picks so Tecmo is included. I've scrubbed history like a communist and that's the last we'll ever mention it.
This week's game intrigued me not because I'm a Browns fan, but because both of these teams looked horrific in week one. The Browns lost to the Bengals and the Colts looked lost without Peyton Manning. I love that kind of drama. The line is the Browns -2.5, and this year, we ARE picking with spreads.
Edited in the future: The Browns won and covered the spread.
This list was published on Saturday, September 17, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, September 17, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
It's week two of the NFL picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others abhor it.
And this year's picks are sponsored by the fine sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks.
Little change for week two -- Tecmo is back! For the past two years, I simulated the weekly game in the classic Tecmo Super Bowl game for NES. This year I initially planned to use it, but pulled it at the 11th hour. People basically came at me with pitchforks and torches. So it's back. And I've gone back and revised last week's picks so Tecmo is included. I've scrubbed history like a communist and that's the last we'll ever mention it.
This week's game intrigued me not because I'm a Browns fan, but because both of these teams looked horrific in week one. The Browns lost to the Bengals and the Colts looked lost without Peyton Manning. I love that kind of drama. The line is the Browns -2.5, and this year, we ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (1-0) - Each week I simulate the game using the legendary NES game Tecmo Super Bowl, which debuted in 1991. AND I'VE NEVER DONE ANYTHING BUT THAT. This is state-controlled media.
I half expected Kerry Collins to be the starter for the Colts in the 20-year-old game (he wasn't, it was the almost-as-funny Jeff George). Bernie Kosar is QB for the Browns, except the game didn't have permission to use his name, so he's just identified as "QB Browns."
The game was as back and forth as I've ever seen a Tecmo game. It ended as the Browns were driving furiously in the end of the 4th quarter and Kos-- err, QB Browns lost a fumble. The Colts won, 28-27.- Laska, my parents' dog (1-0) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for. Laska lives in Cleveland and has a lot of civic pride -- according to my mom she took a direct path straight at the treat representing the Browns.
- Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (1-0) - "Yes, the Indianapolis Colts have four-win talent without Peyton Manning under center. Yes, Jim Caldwell is one of the most helpless humans in the NFL at the moment. And yes, Kerry Collins is a 38-year-old drunkard who is in the midst of a killer Jeff George rendition. But this line is eye-popping. I mean, the Browns couldn't even beat the Bengals at home last week. The Bengals! The Browns lost by double-digits after closing as nearly a touchdown favorite. Now they are road favorites in Indianapolis? No chance I'm buying that and neither are the sharp bettors in Vegas, who have put enough action on this line to pull it down from an open of Indy +3.0 to Indy +2.0. That is significant because it pulled the spread off that key gambling number of 3.0.
The Colts have a System. And the System is strong. This team has a load of pride and veterans, and they are still better than Cleveland at all of the skill positions (outside of quarterback). I think the home RCA Dome crowd can will their team to a strong effort on Sunday and I think the Colts reciprocate with an outright winner, and some hope that the entire season is not lost. (Even though it is.)"
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (1-0) - Last week all three correctly picked the Lions to beat the Buccaneers, so all three are back this week.
@celestialaly12 - "i think i'll take colt and the new browns over the colts and kerry 'fantasy kryptonite' collins"
So with two votes, the pick is the Browns. In either outcome, we'll have at least one new reader picking next week. (If you'd like to get on the list to pick this season, tweet me at @11points.
@campbelliah - "Gut feeling: Browns. I think Colt and co. will play better this week, while Indy might just be the worst team in the league."
@steven_blanck - "Indy. However I would never ever pick this game unless a zany blogger forced me to."
Handsomer players (0-1) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. They (?) say that good looks get you everything -- football victories included?
Colt McCoy is "Texas football handsome," but still handsome.
The Colts are the 12th handsomest team in the league. Not sure if Peyton drags that up or down, but I have a guess. Meanwhile the Browns are supermodels in comparison, ranking an impressive 3rd. Just imagine if they hadn't traded Brady Quinn.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (0-1) - This method is a test to see if recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means most of the players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
The last 11 games between these two stretch back to 1988, primarily thanks to the Browns disappearing for the last '90s. (Their game before that was in the '87 playoffs, which the Browns won.) Since then, it hasn't really been close -- the Colts have won eight of the last 11, including all five against the rebooted Browns.
Battle of mascot adorableness (1-0) - The Browns are represented by Chomps. I did not know this until 30 seconds ago. I do like that they list his favorite foods as "roasted raven and baked bengal tiger." I guess he doesn't want to deal with the potential poisoning he'd get from eating steel. I don't like that they list his "favorite subject" as "gym and reading." Weak.
But no weaker than the Indy mascot, Blue. He was born in a log barn, in a town called Jockey, and didn't like horse racing but liked football instead. He's not so much adorable as painfully lame. Look at him in the photo with his Poochie sunglasses. Come on. The pick is the Browns and Chomps.- Power rankings powerhouse (0-1) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm gauging if they're worth anything when it comes to actually playing the games.
For the Browns, ESPN has them dead last at 32... CBS inexplicably moved them UP to 27th (from 28th) after their loss... and SI has them at 29th. That's an average of 29.333 (repeating of course). For the Colts, ESPN has them at a generous 23... CBS is saying they're playing for next season but has them 22nd... and SI also has them 22nd. That's an average of 22.333 (repeating of course) -- meaning the pick is the Colts.
Accuscore (0-1) - Accuscore runs more than 10,000 simulations of the game to predict the outcome. Last season it was the most accurate prediction method.
For this game it sees Indianapolis winning 55 percent of the time, Cleveland winning 44 percent, and the city of Cleveland drowning in a flood of tears one percent. So the pick is the Colts.- More miserable fan base (1-0) - For this method I analyze the pain of the fan bases and pick the game for the people who want it more.
The sad part is, this week, someone might dare to say Indy is more miserable because of Manning's injury. I do not like that person. In a battle of a one seed versus a 16 seed, the Browns trounce. - The opposite of my pick (0-1) - For the first two years of doing picks, I would contribute the team I thought was going to win. And I always did a horrible job. So last year I went with the opposite of my gut... and I finished over .500. So I'm back to going against my instincts this year.
This game is a tough one for me. I'd really like the Browns to win. If they don't, it could very well be a one- or two-win season. But man, they looked bad last week.
Fortunately, so did Indianapolis. They looked lost without Manning and, without him covering up mistakes, their wear and tear is starting to show. I also truly don't believe the Browns are as bad as they looked last week. So, taking my heart out of it as much as possible, I think the Browns are going to win. Therefore, my pick is the Colts.
Edited in the future: The Browns won and covered the spread.
This list was published on Saturday, September 17, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
