11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 3, Texans at Saints
Published Saturday, September 24, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is not a race to the bottom line last week's Browns-Colts matchup -- this week we've got the Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints. The line is New Orleans -3.5, and this year, we ARE picking with spreads when possible.
[Updated in the future: The Saints came from behind to win and cover.]
This list was published on Saturday, September 24, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, September 24, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is not a race to the bottom line last week's Browns-Colts matchup -- this week we've got the Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints. The line is New Orleans -3.5, and this year, we ARE picking with spreads when possible.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (2-0) - Each week I simulate the game using the legendary NES game Tecmo Super Bowl, which debuted in 1991. Can the 20-year-old game properly pick a game of today?
Last week, the game picked the Colts. But, since they were getting 2.5 points, and this year we're picking with spreads when applicable, Tecmo gets the win.
This week, Warren Moon and the old Houston Oilers were on point. He had three touchdown passes to Drew Hill (where's Sisqo?) and looked sharp overall. Meanwhile the Saints ran a flea flicker for 90 percent of their plays, hit less than half of them... and then abandoned it to inexplicably run the ball when the clock was rapidly counting down in the late 4th quarter. The Saints lost and deserved it... Tecmo's pick is the Texans.- Laska, my parents' dog (2-0) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
My mom did the simulation on Thursday early morning, Eastern time, then called to tell me the result around 7:15 am. Which is 4:15 Pacific. She expected to leave a voicemail... not realizing I'd turned my "Phone Calls Only" ringer on because I was expecting an important call and didn't want to miss it. So she woke me up to tell me Laska picked the Texans. At least I think so. It's very foggy. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (1-1) - "Let's see: New Orleans has been tussling with the two teams that played for the NFC Championship last year (Chicago and Green Bay) while Houston has been enjoying some extended training camp, essentially, while beating Indianapolis and Miami. New Orleans is the better team and I think the Texans are going to be overwhelmed in their trip to the Bayou.
The Texans have only been playing the 3-4 defense for about 15 minutes and the Saints offense is an absolute machine. As long as New Orleans doesn't blitz its way into a lot of Texans big plays they should be able to score early and often and cover this small number. Definitely take the Saints and lay the points here against the overrated Texans.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (2-0) - Last week, we lost one picker who went with the Colts. Both of the ladies picking went with the Browns and made it through to pick another week. And they're joined by a new third this week...
@celestialaly12 - "i gotta go with The Saints because Brees is better than Schaub and the saints have better coaching. Its going to be 38-34."
So with two votes, the pick is the Saints.
@campbelliah - "Houston [with the points]. I feel like they're going to get built up a little more this year before their annual pantsing."
@AndyTheG - "Brees spreads the ball around & HOU has run D issues (100+ to a rookie wk 2) Running early then using play action will earn NO a W"
Handsomer players (1-1) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Does handsomeness equal victories?
Yeah, that's Drew Brees (with birthmark) alongside who you think that is.
The Texans are a very middle-of-the-pack team, with a handsomeness rating of 18th in the league. Which is ironic (modern definition, not real definition) because for years now they've been everyone's sexy preseason pick.
Meanwhile the Saints are one of the league's handsomest teams -- perhaps ENTIRELY on the strength of Drew Brees getting his enormous birthmark removed? -- and rank 4th. So the pick is the Saints.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (0-2) - This method is a test to see if recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means most of the players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is a test of whether laundry can repeatedly beat other laundry.
This is tricky, because they've only played twice since Houston came into existence, and it's tied 1-1. So, as with Tecmo Bowl, I went back into the old Oilers days to round things out. The Saints and Oilers played, serendipitously, nine times before. Meaning the city of New Orleans and city of Houston have competed exactly 11 times in pro football. I love it when a plan comes together.
But things can never work out THAT perfectly. You see, Houston won four of those ('76, '78, '90, and '96). New Orleans won four ('81, '84, '87, and '93). And in their first game, in 1971, they tied 13-13. So the full record between the two is 5-5-1. In other words, this is a rubber match. I bet they have no idea.
To make this work, I went to the tiebreaker, which is total points. New Orleans has scored 227 total, Houston's two franchises combined for 213 -- so after all this convoluted nonsense, the pick is the Saints.
Battle of mascot adorableness (2-0) - The Texans are represented by Toro. He's a blue bull. Their website isn't too descriptive of him; they say his Zodiac sign is Taurus, his weight is "big enough to BULL you over," and he's six feet tall. Meh. The entire thing is in Comic Sans. And his costume is only so-so.
I don't love the Saints' mascot, a dog named Gumbo, so much either. And it makes me nervous that in his description the official website lists his birthplace as "Cooked up by the Louisiana Restaurant Association." Let's not cook dogs, OK Louisiana Restaurant Association? I do like that for weight his response is "How Rude!"... anyone who steals catchphrases from "Full House" is all good in my book.
Therefore, I don't think Gumbo will be saying "have mercy" to the less-adorable Toro. The pick is the Saints.- Power rankings powerhouse (0-2) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm gauging if they're worth anything when it comes to actually playing the games. This method averages the rankings from three major sports sites (ESPN, CBS, and SI) and determines the winner from that.
These two teams are close... but also a bit polarizing on these sites. The Texans are 5th on ESPN... 4th on CBS... and 9th on SI for an average of 6.0. The Saints are 4th on ESPN... 11th on CBS... and 4th on SI for an average of 6.333. So the pick is the Texans by the slightest margin possible.
Accuscore (0-2) - Accuscore, which was last season's most successful method, runs more than 10,000 simulations of the game to predict a winner.
And it sees this one as a no-doubter. It has the Saints winning a whopping 70 percent of the time and the Texans winning 29 percent.- More miserable fan base (2-0) - This method awards the win to the fan base that needs it more.
And for the third straight week, it's no contest. Yes, the Saints got laughably eliminated from the playoffs by the Seahawks last year... but they're still basking in the glow of their Super Bowl just two seasons ago. Meanwhile the Texans haven't done anything other than fail to meet preseason hype ever since they came into existence. Plus Houston lost the Oilers to even make them necessary. Clear pick here is the Texans. - The opposite of my pick (0-2) - For the first two years of doing picks, I would contribute the team I thought was going to win. And I always did a horrible job. So last year I went with the opposite of my gut... and I finished over .500. So I'm back to going against my instincts this year.
I really think New Orleans should take this. They've had a rough early schedule and are legitimate contenders. The Texans are not. I see the Saints beating them and easily covering the spread. Therefore my pick is the Texans.
[Updated in the future: The Saints came from behind to win and cover.]
This list was published on Saturday, September 24, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
