11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 4, Giants at Cardinals
Published Saturday, October 1, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Welcome to week four of the NFL picks, between two teams I've watched for zero total minutes this season -- and both of whom have somehow found a way to lose to the Redskins.
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the New York Giants (2-1) at the Arizona Cardinals (1-2). The line is New York -1.5, and this year, human and video game methods do have the option to pick with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, October 1, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 1, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
Welcome to week four of the NFL picks, between two teams I've watched for zero total minutes this season -- and both of whom have somehow found a way to lose to the Redskins.
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the New York Giants (2-1) at the Arizona Cardinals (1-2). The line is New York -1.5, and this year, human and video game methods do have the option to pick with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (2-1) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
And this one was a blowout. The (Phoenix) Cardinals were absolutely unable to move the ball (and also repeatedly failed doing a double reverse with a pitch back to the QB for a throw). The Giants weren't spectacular but were much, much more competent. Phil Simms, Dave Meggett and the crew ran away with it, 34-7. So the pick is the Giants.- Laska, my parents' dog (2-1) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
And apparently, this week there was something that's never happened before. Laska walked up to the Arizona treat, sniffed it, opened her mouth to eat it... then decided against it, walked over, and ate the New York treat. She has never, ever turned down her first instinct before. So her well-conceived pick here is the Giants. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (2-1) - This game has trap written all over it. The Giants are coming off an emotional upset road win over Philadelphia this week and now have to make a long flight into the desert to take on reeling Arizona. The number is low and everything about this line suggests letting it ride on the G-Men. But the Cardinals are always very scrappy at home and motivation might be a lot tougher for the Giants this week. Over 75 percent of the public is on New York here so if we had to make a play on this game I would suggest that you hold your nose and take the points with the home puppy. Take the Cardinals here (although the 'over' is actually a much stronger situation!).
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (3-0) - Two of the three readers survived from last week by picking the Saints. Here's what they had to say, along with our new third picker, DenverGambler.
@celestialaly12 - "I will take Lil' Eli and the GMen over the worst team in the desert and Kevin "I am not Kurt Warner 2.0" Kolb. No Fun will be had"
So with all three votes, the pick is Giants. Everyone will be back next week or we'll have three brand new reader pickers.
@AndyTheG - "The Cardinals have an awful D & the Giants have Brandon Jacobs, who loves to run people over. NY takes this one with a big margin"
@DenverGambler - "Give me the Giants -1.5. I'm not buying the Cardinals offense, and Eli is going to destroy the Arizona secondary."
Handsomer players (2-1) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Oh my, Tom Coughlin.
The Giants are a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of handsomeness, ranking 19th in the NFL. Which is especially impressive considering these rankings also included the coaches and Tom Coughlin is not at all a looker.
But the Cardinals did worse -- just like you'd expect when you match up the people of NYC and the people of Scottsdale, Phoenix, et. al. The Cardinals rank 26th in the league. So the pick is the Giants.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (1-2) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
These two have actually met 11 times since just 1999 -- remember, until 2002, both of them were in the NFC East together. Obviously. And it's closer than historical franchise reputations would lead you to believe.
The Giants have won six times, the Cardinals have won five. In their last meeting, in 2009, the Cardinals won. But, once again, the pick is the Giants.
Battle of mascot adorableness (3-0) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
The Cardinals are represented by Big Red. I like the official team site says his favorite food is gummy worms... but I don't like that his favorite vacation spot is "Hawaii, that's where the Pro Bowl is." Come on, man. Also, he's almost disconcertingly tall and skinny.
Most other mascots would've easily beaten him. But the Giants are one of only a couple of teams that don't even have a mascot. So they lose on a technicality. The Cardinals stop all the negative momentum in a clear "a win is a win" moment.- Power rankings powerhouse (0-3) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
The Giants rank 12th on ESPN, 14th on CBS, and 14th on SI. That's an average of 13.333, repeating of course.
The Cardinals rank 23rd on ESPN, 24th on CBS, and 22nd on SI. That's a nice round average of 23. The Giants are the pick.
Accuscore (1-2) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
Like basically everyone else, the computer sees New York winning, 53 percent to 47 percent. So the pick is the Giants.
And, as you'll notice, those percentages add to 100. The Accuscore percentages NEVER add up to 100. They always add up to 99 and then I make a game-relevant joke about what happened to the missing one percent. Well... I forgot to do that last week. And now, Accuscore didn't even give me the option this week. Could my lack of a joke have been the impetus that made Accuscore become self-aware a la Skynet?- More miserable fan base (2-1) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Another easy one here. The Giants won the Super Bowl just a few years ago and got eternal rights to shove it in the face of Patriots fans. That's not just a temporary highlight for the franchise -- Giants fans will remember that for the rest of their lives.
Meanwhile, Arizona has been beat up enough just in the previous nine points on this list to deserve the pick -- but they don't need that boost. Other than Arizona's mysterious anomaly of a trip to the Super Bowl in 2009 (where they lost), it's been very, very rough for the franchise. No brainer here: It's the Cardinals. - The opposite of my pick (0-3) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I know the Giants are one of those teams that can look amazing one week and horrible the next week... but, like everyone else, I have no faith in the Cardinals. I'm surprised the line is as close as it is. My gut says New York wins this. And therefore, my pick is the Cardinals.
This list was published on Saturday, October 1, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Did you enjoy this list?
11 Points is a one-man operation that relies on word-of-mouth & repeat readers.
So please consider sharing this list using the social media icons in the box, and/or joining the 11 Points mailing list, Facebook fan page and Twitter feed.
11 Points is a one-man operation that relies on word-of-mouth & repeat readers.
So please consider sharing this list using the social media icons in the box, and/or joining the 11 Points mailing list, Facebook fan page and Twitter feed.
11 Famous Bands Who Used to Have Very Different Names
Published Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Music
11 Worst Fast Food Restaurants - 11 Points Countdown
Published Monday, May 14, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Really Old Actors Who Played Teenagers on TV
Published Friday, May 11, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category TV
11 Best Cheap Ways to Get Drunk - 11 Points Countdown
Published Wednesday, May 9, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Random Thoughts on The Avengers
Published Monday, May 7, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Movies
11 Most Depressing Place Names In the US
Published Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:00:00 AM under the category Travel
Full Archive
Published Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Music
11 Worst Fast Food Restaurants - 11 Points Countdown
Published Monday, May 14, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Really Old Actors Who Played Teenagers on TV
Published Friday, May 11, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category TV
11 Best Cheap Ways to Get Drunk - 11 Points Countdown
Published Wednesday, May 9, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Random Thoughts on The Avengers
Published Monday, May 7, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Movies
11 Most Depressing Place Names In the US
Published Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:00:00 AM under the category Travel
Full Archive
11 Points is comprised entirely of (theoretically) humorous 11-item lists covering a giant swath of topics.
It's composed entirely by this stern-
faced goon to the right. His name
is Sam. Screw Flanders.
It's composed entirely by this stern-
faced goon to the right. His name
is Sam. Screw Flanders.
11 Points Mailing List
updates, contests, exclusives
updates, contests, exclusives
(advertisement)
Friends, Bloggers and Well-Wishers
(Meaning they wish me no specific harm.)
(advertisement)
(Meaning they wish me no specific harm.)
(advertisement)
11 Points is a collection of exhaustively-researched, meticulously-written, theoretically-humorous 11-item lists, covering topics ranging from TV and movies to the Internet and video games to food and dating to politics and race relations.
It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
