11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 5, Eagles at Bills
Published Saturday, October 8, 2011 at 01:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is between the surprisingly bad Philadelphia Eagles and the surprisingly good Buffalo Bills. Even though the Bills have looked a lot better, the Eagles are favored by 2.5. And this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
[Edited from the future: The Bills won the game.]
This list was published on Saturday, October 8, 2011 at 01:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 8, 2011 at 01:00:00 AM
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This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is between the surprisingly bad Philadelphia Eagles and the surprisingly good Buffalo Bills. Even though the Bills have looked a lot better, the Eagles are favored by 2.5. And this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (3-1) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
And this one was just the early '90s Bills dominating from start to finish. Bruce Smith had three sacks, Thurman Thomas had huge runs on ever drive, and all of Scott Norwood's field goals were as straight and true as we expect from him. They dominated the Eagles, so the pick is the Bills.
Random side note: This matchup featured two of the three quarterbacks who didn't allow the game to use their names. (Besides Jim Kelly and Randall Cunningham in this game, there's also Bernie Kosar.)- Laska, my parents' dog (3-1) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
And apparently, on behalf of the dogs of America, she's forgiven Michael Vick... because she went straight for the Eagles this week. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (2-2) - Buy low and sell high. That is the cornerstone of any good investing strategy and is exactly how we should approach this one. Philadelphia is a bloody, disgusting mess right now and its season is on life support just a quarter of the way in. However, if you look at this team they really are just a hair away from being 3-1 and they are undervalued.
They blew a double-digit lead in Atlanta when Vick was injured and they blew a 20-point lead last week to San Francisco. Buffalo, on the other hand, is currently 3-1 and is probably on the verge of another collapse that will once again crush its fan base's collective will to live. The converse of Philly, the Bills are just a hair away from being 1-3 and they needed ludicrous second-half comebacks to beat Oakland and New England. So if Philly was 3-1 and Buffalo was 1-3 coming into this one -- which isn't far off -- then what do you think this spread would have been? That means we're getting nearly a touchdown in line value on this game based more on perception than reality.
I'll go with the more desperate team, the Eagles, and watch once again as Bills fans get their hearts ripped out by an organization rotten with the stench of two decades of failure and disappointment on it.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (4-0) - Last week all three readers picked the Giants over the Cardinals. It didn't look good for most of the game, but the Giants found a way... so all three are back...
@celestialaly12 - "the bills and harvard man ryan fitzpatrick over the igles and mike 'i need summers eve' vick"
So with two votes, the pick is the Bills.
@AndyTheG - "Eagles. They'll get McCoy started early which will lead to Vick taking control later on. He'll run and throw for a TD on Sunday."
@DenverGambler - "I'll take the Bills at home +2.5. Fred Jackson should run all over that defense."
Handsomer players (3-1) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Ryan Fitzpatrick leads the handsomest squad in town.
This is JUST about as lopsided as it can get. The Eagles came in 31st out of the 32nd teams -- in other words, they're the second-ugliest team -- and the Bills finished first as the handsomest team in the league.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (2-2) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
Amazingly, these two franchises have only played each other exactly 11 times in history, going back to 1973. And the verdict is... the Eagles have won six of the 11. The Eagles won the past two (2003 and 2009) to push them over the edge. - Battle of mascot adorableness (3-1)
In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
I wasn't a big fan of Swoops, the Eagles mascot, because he looks like a thuggish ruggish Philly fan who wants to fight me. But then when I saw that Billy Buffalo went to Bovine University, he instantly became my favorite mascot in the league. Plus he is pretty freaking adorable. The pick is the Bills. - Power rankings powerhouse (1-3) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
The Eagles rank 20th on ESPN... CBS also has them 20th... and SI also has them 20th. That's an average of 20. The Bills are 9th on ESPN... CBS also has them 9th... and SI has them 7th. That's an average rank of 8.333 repeating of course -- which easily gives this to the Bills.
Accuscore (2-2) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
It sees the Eagles winning 54 percent of the time... the Bills winning 45... and one percent of the games getting called off because the collective pessimism of both teams' fan bases actually forms a tornado that wipes the stadium off the map.- More miserable fan base (2-2) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
This is a really tough battle. Both teams have given their fans reasons to be absolutely miserable, and both would have a decent claim as the most tortured fans in the NFL. But I ultimately have to give it to the Bills. Losing four Super Bowls in a row in a title-starved city is just too much... at least Philadelphia has the Phillies World Series. - The opposite of my pick (0-4) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
As much as I like Buffalo -- and in my list of the 11 Brilliant and Ridiculous NFL Team Tribute Songs I even said I feel so bad that I really want them to win a title -- I just can't see the Eagles dropping to 1-4. They really do have too much talent, and it's going to show up. So my pick is the Eagles, therefore I'm going with the Bills.
[Edited from the future: The Bills won the game.]
This list was published on Saturday, October 8, 2011 at 01:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
