11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 6, Panthers at Falcons
Published Saturday, October 15, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the Carolina Panthers at the Atlanta Falcons. The line is Atlanta -4.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, October 15, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 15, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is the Carolina Panthers at the Atlanta Falcons. The line is Atlanta -4.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (4-1) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl. Except that when the Panthers or Jaguars are involved, I can't do that -- since they don't have teams in the 1991 version. (I can fudge the Texans and Titans, both by using the Oilers, and the Ravens by using the Browns. But I can't fudge Carolina or Jacksonville.)
Fortunately, the Internet is filled with people as nerdy or nerdier than I. Meaning they've actually created modified versions of the old NES game using updated rosters. So to simulate this game, I used a modded version of Tecmo Super Bowl featuring 2007 rosters.
And in that matchup... Carolina rolled over Atlanta. I didn't even remember Atlanta had a Byron Leftwich era. I must've been asleep. Jake Delhomme hooked up with Steve Smith for two touchdowns and this one was never in doubt for the Panthers.- Laska, my parents' dog (3-2) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
Last week Laska seemingly forgave Michael Vick by picking the Eagles... and it cost her when they lost. This week she took more time, really analyzed the biscuits to eat, and ended up picking the Panthers. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (2-3) - I didn't buy into the Atlanta Falcons hype at the beginning of the year so I am not at all surprised by their lackluster start. Their defense is mediocre, Michael Turner looks fat, old and slow, and they still have to work too hard to get points because they don't have any big play weapons.
Carolina, on the other hand, is scoring points in bunches and has a ton of confidence. They have already played Green Bay, Chicago and New Orleans to the bone and although they are just 1-4, they have played as tough as anyone in the NFC.
The Falcons are in a letdown spot here after getting beaten down by Green Bay on national TV. And Carolina is taking a lot of action in this one because they have covered four straight games and everyone is fawning over Cam "Cover" Newton. But as much as everything points toward Carolina as the smart money play, I am actually going to go with the Falcons. It is more of a "hunch" play than anything with statistical backing. But the play is setting up way too easily to say, "Take the points" so I am going to get on board with the home team in this one.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (5-0) - Last week we only lost one person, who went with the Eagles over the Bills. So we have two returning (including @celestialaly for her sixth straight week) and one new picker...
@celestialaly - "I am going to go with Atlanta. It's at their home and they have a Montana Boy on their team so its sentimental and all for me."
So with two votes, the pick is the Falcons.
@DenverGambler - "I'll take Cam and the Panthers +4.5. They may not win much, but they have been great at covering spreads."
@sarkasticwiz - "Back and forth all day. The way I see it, Matt Ryan and the Falcons can't possibly play worse than they have been. Gotta say ATL."
Handsomer players (4-1) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Cam Newton seems handsome enough.
There's a big gap between these teams. The Panthers came in as the 29th handsomest team (or 4th ugliest, depending on how you look at it) in the NFL... the Falcons are seventh handsomest (or 26th ugliest, if you want to really be pedantic about it). So the pick is the Falcons.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (2-3) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
These two have been in the same division ever since Carolina entered the league, so they've played twice a year ever year. And while the Falcons dominated for the first several years, it's been fairly even in recent history. That's all just me trying to build drama though... because even though it's been closer, the result is predictable based on just how bad the Panthers have been lately. Since mid-2005, the Falcons have won six, the Panthers five. So based on recent history, the pick is the Falcons.
Battle of mascot adorableness (4-1) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
I don't love either one of these, but I do find Sir Purr from the Panthers to be slightly more cuddly than Freddie Falcon. Perhaps it's his morbid obesity? Anyway, in a mediocre fight, the pick is the Panthers.- Power rankings powerhouse (2-3) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
For the Panthers, ESPN has them 24th... CBS has them 22nd... and SI has them 25th. That's an average of 23.667. For the Falcons, ESPN has them 19th... CBS has them 16th... and SI has them 20th. That's an average of 18.333 repeating of course. So the pick, largely on lingering preseason reputation, is the Falcons.
Accuscore (2-3) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
This week, Accuscore sees Atlanta winning 57 percent of the time, Carolina winning 42 percent of the time, and the game getting called off 1 percent of the time after Cam Newton realizing he cost himself millions of dollars by leaving his Auburn salary behind to go pro and quits to go back to college. You think Shaq got rich in Orlando? The pick is the Falcons.- More miserable fan base (3-2) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
This is pretty tough. Neither team has won a Super Bowl. Neither one has ever made their fans consistently happy. Ultimately, I have to go with the Falcons out of pure longevity... the Carolina fans are only on their 16th season of being letdown, not their 45th. - The opposite of my pick (1-4) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I like watching Carolina this year. They're exciting, and they're one of those teams that will rattle off some nice wins. I think this is one of them. The Falcons are struggling, Julio Jones is out, Michael Turner is floundering, and I just don't see them putting this together. My instinct is to take the Panthers and the points. Therefore, my pick is the Falcons.
This list was published on Saturday, October 15, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
