11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 7, Chargers at Jets
Published Saturday, October 22, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game could be a really good one -- the San Diego Chargers at the New York Jets. The line is New York -1.5, meaning it's basically a wash... and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, October 22, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 22, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game could be a really good one -- the San Diego Chargers at the New York Jets. The line is New York -1.5, meaning it's basically a wash... and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (4-2) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
This one wasn't even as close as the score looks. San Diego had four turnovers (and would not stop running the slowest-developing end-around I've seen in Tecmo), Al Toon was getting 30 yards of separation into the end zone, and the Jets rolled big.- Laska, my parents' dog (3-3) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
This week she really took her time. She apparently examined both treats carefully, and ultimately ate the one representing the Jets. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (3-3) - Prior to their Monday Night Football win last week the Jets were installed as an early –2 favorites. Obviously The Rock was not impressed with their win over Miami, because Tuesday morning they found themselves as home dogs. The public is all over the Chargers as it seems that people finally realize that this New York team isn't very good. There is some late sharp action coming in on the Jets, as the wise guys know not to trust Norv Turner and a West Coast team making that early 1 p.m. EST start. But there isn't enough value for me to bite on the home puppy. We're pinned against the public with a road favorite but it is what it is. We'll take the Chargers.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (6-0) - Last week @celestialaly12 picked her sixth game in a row correctly. She's been here since the beginning of the season and clearly has no intentions of ever relinquishing her spot. If she picks all 21 in a row correctly then I'm going to send her a massive plaque.
She's joined by @sarkasticwiz, who picked correctly last week; and newcomer @jeremysexton.@celestialaly12 - "my pick is San Diego and Norv Turner. God did i just pick Norv Turner? i guess i did. i am just watching the jets blow up."
I love that @sarkasticwiz DID make the same pick as Alyson. With all three votes, the pick is the Chargers.
@sarkasticwiz - "Can I just pick whatever @celestialaly12 picks? If not I'll have to go with the Chargers. Jets just aren't doin' it for me this year"
@jeremysexton - "Jets are currently undefeated at home, but that streak has to end some time. I think SD is the team to break it here. Chargers."
Handsomer players (5-1) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
xx.
Not exactly a battle of lookers here. The Chargers are rated 23rd in the league... bested just slightly by the Jets, who rank 20th. I'm guessing that's entirely on the strength of Mark Sanchez's dashing looks reminiscent of one of the background singers in the Warblers on "Glee".- Previous 11 head-to-head results (3-3) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
The last 11 games these two played stretch all the way back to 1989 and include two first-round playoff games (2004 and 2009 -- the Jets won both).
It's close, but the Jets have won six, the Chargers five. So the pick is the Jets, based on a mix of recent and not-so-recent history.
Battle of mascot adorableness (4-2) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
This is one strange battle. The Chargers have Boltman, who I previously discussed in my old, old list 11 Best, Ugliest Mascots in Sports. The Jets don't have an official mascot. If they did, it would probably be more adorable than Boltman. ANYTHING is more adorable than Boltman. But they don't. So they lose. The pick is the Chargers by the two sweetest words in the English language, de fault.- Power rankings powerhouse (3-3) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
For the Chargers, ESPN has them 7th... CBS has them 4th... and SI has them 7th. That's an average of 6. For the Jets, ESPN has them 16th... CBS has them 20th... and SI has them 17th. That's an average of 17.67... so the pick is the Chargers, by a lot. (And they're the underdogs in this one, remember?)
Accuscore (3-3) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
Even though the Jets are 1.5-point favorites, Accuscore isn't swayed. It sees San Diego winning 63 percent of the time, New York winning 36 percent of the time, and the game being cancelled one percent of the time because Joe Namath and Suzy Kolber end up drunkenly making out on the 50-yard line. So the pick is the Chargers.- More miserable fan base (4-2) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
This is a tough call. A really tough call. Neither team has had anything but letdowns in the past four decades. But I'm going with the Chargers, since the Jets have at least won a Super Bowl (even if it was 43 years ago) -- and the Chargers just keep getting Marty-ed and Norv-ed out of contention. - The opposite of my pick (2-4) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I really think the Chargers should win this one, even on the road. From what I've seen of both, they're simply a better team right now -- I can't see the Jets being able to move the ball well enough and/or stop San Diego from moving the ball. So I think the Chargers have this one locked down. Therefore my pick is the Jets.
This list was published on Saturday, October 22, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Did you enjoy this list?
11 Points is a one-man operation that relies on word-of-mouth & repeat readers.
So please consider sharing this list using the social media icons in the box, and/or joining the 11 Points mailing list, Facebook fan page and Twitter feed.
11 Points is a one-man operation that relies on word-of-mouth & repeat readers.
So please consider sharing this list using the social media icons in the box, and/or joining the 11 Points mailing list, Facebook fan page and Twitter feed.
11 Famous Bands Who Used to Have Very Different Names
Published Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Music
11 Worst Fast Food Restaurants - 11 Points Countdown
Published Monday, May 14, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Really Old Actors Who Played Teenagers on TV
Published Friday, May 11, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category TV
11 Best Cheap Ways to Get Drunk - 11 Points Countdown
Published Wednesday, May 9, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Random Thoughts on The Avengers
Published Monday, May 7, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Movies
11 Most Depressing Place Names In the US
Published Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:00:00 AM under the category Travel
Full Archive
Published Wednesday, May 16, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Music
11 Worst Fast Food Restaurants - 11 Points Countdown
Published Monday, May 14, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Really Old Actors Who Played Teenagers on TV
Published Friday, May 11, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category TV
11 Best Cheap Ways to Get Drunk - 11 Points Countdown
Published Wednesday, May 9, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Countdown
11 Random Thoughts on The Avengers
Published Monday, May 7, 2012 at 11:00:00 AM under the category Movies
11 Most Depressing Place Names In the US
Published Friday, May 4, 2012 at 10:00:00 AM under the category Travel
Full Archive
11 Points is comprised entirely of (theoretically) humorous 11-item lists covering a giant swath of topics.
It's composed entirely by this stern-
faced goon to the right. His name
is Sam. Screw Flanders.
It's composed entirely by this stern-
faced goon to the right. His name
is Sam. Screw Flanders.
11 Points Mailing List
updates, contests, exclusives
updates, contests, exclusives
(advertisement)
Friends, Bloggers and Well-Wishers
(Meaning they wish me no specific harm.)
(advertisement)
(Meaning they wish me no specific harm.)
(advertisement)
11 Points is a collection of exhaustively-researched, meticulously-written, theoretically-humorous 11-item lists, covering topics ranging from TV and movies to the Internet and video games to food and dating to politics and race relations.
It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
