11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 8, Patriots at Steelers
Published Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is a potential game-of-the-week type -- New England at Pittsburgh. The line is Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point home underdog, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
This list was published on Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
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This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
This week's game is a potential game-of-the-week type -- New England at Pittsburgh. The line is Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point home underdog, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (5-2) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
This simulation really takes you back to the era before either of these teams was an annual contender. It's a very nice feeling. Also shows just how much a franchise can turn in two decades. That's what us Browns fans tell ourselves.
Anyway, it was ugly. Tons of turnovers, really slow running backs, and almost no long pass plays. The turning point was an 80-yard kickoff return by Pittsburgh which set up the winning touchdown late. The Steelers were the slightly-less-worse team in this one, and took it 24-17.- Laska, my parents' dog (4-3) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
This year my mom said Laska "smartly" went right for New England. I don't know what that means, as Laska IS a born-and-raised Clevelander so she has beef with both Boston and Pittsburgh. Her pick is "smartly" the Patriots. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (3-4) - There aren't many rules that I live by but one of them is this: Don't ever bet against Satan's minions on the weekend of Halloween. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are clearly buddies of Beelzebub. They are also 6-2 straight up and against the spread against the Steelers in the Brady Era. That includes a dominating 39-26 effort from the Patriots last November in Heinz Field.
The Steelers are always a tough underdog, but New England is 46-22-4 ATS in its last 72 road games and there is just no way I am putting money down against Brady and Belichick. Take the Patriots here.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (6-1) - Last week all three readers picked the Chargers to beat the Jets... they did not. So we're joined by three brand new pickers this week.
@FozziesRevenge - "I live in Boston. I also hate the Pats. But I've learned to never go against an Ugg boot model after a bye. Pats by a touchdown."
So with all three votes, the pick is Patriots. All three will be back next week, or we'll have a clean sweep for the second week in a row.
@JPTizzle - "A method for next year: take the less douchey QB and roll. Here, it's a tight one, but I like Brady's hair -2.5 over the rapist"
@POwesome - "Having had Roethlisberger lead my fantasy team into the ground for weeks now, I'm putting my money on the Pats."
Handsomer players (6-1) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
xx.
In the rankings, head coaches were also included. Which, to me, meant this all hinged on one question: Could Tom Brady's handsomeness compensate for Bill Belichick's un-handsomeness? The answer... was sort of. New England ranks 10th in handsomeness in the NFL, which is usually good enough... but not against Pittsburgh. The Steelers rank 6th in handsomeness... no wonder Roethlisberger gets so many chicks... and they take this one.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (4-3) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
The past 11 between these two stretch back to 1997, and that includes three playoff games. It's been decently one-sided: The Patriots have won seven, the Steelers four. For those playoff games, the Pats have beaten Pittsburgh twice in the AFC Championship; the Steelers have beaten New England once, in an AFC Divisional game.
Battle of mascot adorableness (4-3) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
On the left there's Pat the Patriot, who has that sneer that the Patriots developed 10 years ago and have never stopped doing. On the right there's Steely McBeam. Whose name reminds me of Hootie McBoob. I like the cut of his jib a little more -- his smile seems more genuine to me, which makes me want to hug him more. And that's really what this is all about. The pick is the Steelers.- Power rankings powerhouse (3-4) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better.
New England is ranked 2nd by ESPN... 2nd by CBS... and 2nd by SI, for an average of 2nd. Pittsburgh is ranked 5th by ESPN... 4th by CBS... and 6th by SI, for an average of 5th. Big power rankings battle here, but the Patriots clearly have the edge.
Accuscore (3-4) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
A very close one here. It sees the Steelers winning 51 percent of the time, the Patriots winning 48 percent, and the game getting called because Rob Gronkowski starts spreading the Clap to everyone on the field one percent.- More miserable fan base (4-3) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Well neither team has ANY right to be miserable. This one is like arguing about who's more miserable, a guy with $1 billion in the bank or a guy with $600 million in the bank but has a huge penis.
Although it nearly kills my soul to type this, the Patriots are the more miserable fan base in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately? department. These teams combined to win five Super Bowls last decade, and even though the Patriots won more, the Steelers have won their two more recently. So the inexplicable pick is the Patriots. May God have mercy on our souls. - The opposite of my pick (3-4) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I like the Patriots here a lot. I think they're just too tough and Pittsburgh has seemed just a little bit shakier overall. Therefore, my pick is the Steelers
This list was published on Saturday, October 29, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
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