11 Picks for NFL 2011- Week 9, Broncos at Raiders
Published Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
So a few weeks ago, someone asked me why I'd never done a Denver Broncos game for NFL picks. I couldn't believe it -- three-plus seasons, and somehow I'd avoided the Broncos completely. So I decided to do this game -- they're a team getting buzz now because of the Tebow thing, so it made sense.
I put together the list, contacted all the people who contribute... and then noticed in the archives I've actually done several Broncos games. So... um... oops. (2008 - Week 9, Miami at Denver, 2009 - Week 3, Denver at Oakland, 2009 - Week 9, Pittsburgh at Denver, 2010 - Week 14, Denver at Arizona.)
This week's game is the Denver Broncos at the Oakland Raiders. The line is Oakland -7.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads... which should factor in significantly this week with more than a touchdown difference.
This list was published on Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM
Presented by:
This year's picks are sponsored by the sports handicappers at Doc's Sports Picks. For those who've never seen these before, here's the standard boilerplate explanation: Each week during the NFL season and playoffs I use the same 11 methods to predict the outcome of one game. At the end of the year we tally it all up and see who did the best. Some readers really enjoy this weekly list, others loathe it.
So a few weeks ago, someone asked me why I'd never done a Denver Broncos game for NFL picks. I couldn't believe it -- three-plus seasons, and somehow I'd avoided the Broncos completely. So I decided to do this game -- they're a team getting buzz now because of the Tebow thing, so it made sense.
I put together the list, contacted all the people who contribute... and then noticed in the archives I've actually done several Broncos games. So... um... oops. (2008 - Week 9, Miami at Denver, 2009 - Week 3, Denver at Oakland, 2009 - Week 9, Pittsburgh at Denver, 2010 - Week 14, Denver at Arizona.)
This week's game is the Denver Broncos at the Oakland Raiders. The line is Oakland -7.5, and this year, human and video game methods ARE picking with spreads... which should factor in significantly this week with more than a touchdown difference.
Tecmo Super Bowl simulation (6-2) - For the third year in a row, each week, I simulate the game using the legendary 20-year-old NES game Tecmo Super Bowl.
Basically the story of this game was simple. Every time the Raiders gave the ball to Bo Jackson, something good happened. Every time they didn't, something bad happened. But they only gave him eight carries. As you can see, he got 118 yards on those eight carries; meanwhile Schroeder completed just ONE pass for 19 yards and threw two interceptions.
The Broncos weren't any good either, as Elway wasn't able to get the ball into the end zone at all. But their three field goals were enough due to horrible L.A. Raiders coaching, and the Broncos won a crapfest, 9-7.- Laska, my parents' dog (4-4) - This is the third year that my parents' dog Laska is making picks. Each week my parents put two treats on either side of the room representing the teams and see which one Laska goes for.
According to my mom she did something brand new this time. She ate half the Denver treat... then put it down and wandered over to the Oakland treat. She sniffed it, but then rejected it and went back to the Denver treat. So through convoluted and controversial means, she's going with the Broncos. - Rob, the professional handicapper from Doc's Sports (3-5) - I know that the chic thing to do in the NFL right now is to bash Tim Tebow. But as I have been saying for weeks: Joe Montana would be struggling to win games with this Denver squad. Their roster is so depleted of talent -- just look at their skill position players, and the back seven on defense -- that how much the Broncos lose by actually has little to do with how Tebow plays.
Now, that said, he has still been a quarterback in his system longer than new Raiders quarterback, Carson Palmer, has been playing in his. Over 70 percent of the public is banging on the Raiders in this game laying the big number even though Oakland is a pathetic 8-22 ATS as a favorite. The Raiders are 3-13 ATS laying points at home and the underdog has been the play seven of the last 10 times these clubs have met.
This isn't a game that I would get involved in, but only two of Denver's losses this year were by more than a touchdown. Hold your nose and take the points with the Broncos here.
For more free picks from handicapping expert Robert Ferringo, click here. - 11 Points reader picks (6-2) - Last week, all three readers picked the Patriots... so for the second week in a row, all three were bounced out. (The Patriots lost to the Steelers.) Therefore, this week, we've got brand new prognosticators. I've also expanded it to more people so everyone can get a chance this season.
@Loki_013 - "Tebow vs Palmer? There could be some epic fail in this game. I'll take Denver as Palmer has veteran experience at being terrible"
I double-checked and everyone who took Oakland is fine with the 7.5-point line. With three selections, the pick is the Raiders.
@AtTheStars455 - "In the battle of the overhyped vs.washed-up QBs, think Tebow will manage to keep it close enough to cover, but fall short of a win"
@IzzyKennedy - "Know nothing about NFL but I have actually been to California so I'm picking the Raiders. PS: what the heck does -7.5 mean???"
@jnbernstein - "I will take the Raiders, only because they are at home"
@DJMarco_26 - "I'm taking Oakland after Denver just got stomped by Detroit. I predict there will be a lot of Tebowing going on, but not by Tebow."
Handsomer players (7-1) - These rankings are based on a statistical analysis of facial symmetry done by the Wall Street Journal before the season. Studies always show good-looking people have every advantage in the world... does that include winning football games?
Brady Quinn could've helped the Broncos rating.
The Raiders didn't fare great here, ranking 24th in the league in handsomeness. (I will hold back from a speaking-ill-of-the-dead joke about how these rankings did take owner attractiveness into the equation.)
Meanwhile the Broncos did much better, coming in second in the league... just fractions of a point behind the first place Buffalo Bills. Just imagine if they'd factored in Brady Quinn instead of Kyle Orton.- Previous 11 head-to-head results (4-4) - This method tests whether recent history is a gauge of what will happen now. By basing it on the past 11 results, that means all (or almost all) players on both teams will have completely turned over. So this is kind of a test of whether laundry can beat other laundry.
Since these guys are in the same division, they play twice a year. Meaning the last 11 games only stretch back until mid-2005. And in that time it's been as close as it can get. The Broncos have the edge, six to five -- but the raiders have won the last three and four out of five.
Battle of mascot adorableness (5-3) - In this method I match up the plush mascots representing both teams and award the victory to the one that clearly dominates when it comes to adorableness.
As you can see, the Broncos mascot is an ugly white horse. (In the photo, the horse mascot is the one on the right, if you can't tell the difference. The guy on the left is Hall-of-Famer John Elway who is NOT actually a horse.) The horse is named Miles. It is quite ugly and would've lost to most other mascots... but the Raiders don't have one. (Lunatics wearing Road Warrior spikes don't count.) So the Broncos win by the two sweetest words in the English language, de-fault.- Power rankings powerhouse (3-5) - People obsess over Power Rankings. I'm doing this to (hopefully) show just how irrelevant they actually are. For this method I average both teams' Power Rankings on ESPN, CBS Sports, and CNN/SI, and award the victory to the team that scores better. And I have a theory on how this one's going to do.
The Broncos rank 28th on ESPN... 28th on CBS... and 30th on SI. That's an average rank of 28.667. The Raiders rank 17th on ESPN... 15th on CBS... and 14th on SI. That's an average rank of 15.333 repeating of course. Meaning the pick is easily the Raiders.
Accuscore (4-4) - Accuscore has been part of these picks all four years now. A computer runs at least 10,000 simulations of the game and awards predicts the winner based on which team comes out on top more often.
And it sees this one going down ugly. Accuscore has the Raiders winning 74 percent of the time... the Broncos winning 25 percent... and the game getting cancelled one percent when a Raider defender sacks Tebow, mocks the Tebowing pose, and brings on the Rapture and 5,000 years of fire and brimstone.- More miserable fan base (4-4) - This method examines the history and recent history of the franchises and determine which team's fans are more desperate for victory. Then, out of mercy, their team gets the pick.
Broncos fans are miserable, for sure. But not like Raiders fans. At least most Broncos fans can remember when the team won two Super Bowls a little over a decade ago. Most Raider fans cannot. And it's not because of the sniffing glue. It's because it's been a long, long time. The pick is the Raiders. - The opposite of my pick (4-4) - For the first two years of picks I included my pick, and it always did terribly. So last year I went with the opposite of my instinct, and finally finished over .500. So this year I'm back to trusting that I know nothing.
I haven't gone out on limbs too much this season, but I have a feeling about this game. I'm not fully ready to buy into the Raiders. They may win... but I certainly don't see them winning by more than the touchdown line. I'd be willing to take the Broncos and the 7.5 points. Therefore, because of the rules, my pick is the Raiders.
This list was published on Saturday, November 5, 2011 at 11:00:00 AM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
