11 Picks for NFL Week 12, Giants at Cardinals
Published Friday, November 21, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
We're more than halfway through (17 regular season weeks plus four weeks of playoffs) my first annual NFL prediction game and, well, nothing's clear. Except that, like the real NFL, parity is forcing almost everyone's record to basically converge near the .500 mark.
For those unfamiliar, each week, I select a good NFL matchup then use 11 different methods to predict the outcome. Some are people, some are theories, some are random, some are ridiculous.
This week we're all picking the NFC East-leading New York Giants at the NFC West-leading (!) Arizona Cardinals. The line is Giants -3.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
This list was published on Friday, November 21, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, November 21, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
We're more than halfway through (17 regular season weeks plus four weeks of playoffs) my first annual NFL prediction game and, well, nothing's clear. Except that, like the real NFL, parity is forcing almost everyone's record to basically converge near the .500 mark.
For those unfamiliar, each week, I select a good NFL matchup then use 11 different methods to predict the outcome. Some are people, some are theories, some are random, some are ridiculous.
This week we're all picking the NFC East-leading New York Giants at the NFC West-leading (!) Arizona Cardinals. The line is Giants -3.5 but we're all just picking the game straight up.
Accuscore. (4-7 on the season) Accuscore's computer predictive models have been making something of a comeback these past few weeks. Accuscore's now tied for last place n my list. This week it likes the Giants, but not by a... um... giant margin. Just 55 percent to 44 percent.
Accuscore likes the Giants, but not a ton.
Usually I mock Accuscore's missing one percent... but maybe that's taking ties into consideration. And after watching last week's hideously mediocre Philly-Cincinnati game end in a tie, I guess you really do have to take them into account.- Former NFL star Eric Allen. (4-7) Over the past few weeks, I've been bagging on Allen for religiously picking whatever team is favored and never, ever, ever deviating from that. He's done it again this week, going with the Giants. Next season I am definitely replacing him with a better ex-NFL player. One who actually tries.
- Random number generator. (4-7) I use Random.org's coin flipper for this with my system heads equals home team, tails equals away team. It flipped heads, so it's going with the Cardinals.
- Homeless guy outside my office. (5-6) He's going with the Cardinals because "Arizona is gorgeous." I don't know. I'm fairly indifferent toward the place.
Battle of the mascots. (7-4) This one is pretty brutal. A cardinal could fly around and confuse a giant for a little while but, ultimately, a giant could kill a cardinal in 50 different ways. And there's no way a cardinal could kill a giant unless maybe it flew down his throat, pecked its way into his organs and ate his heart. And even then I think the cardinal dies either from such a sudden change in its diet. So this easily goes to the Giants.
A giant (even the one from Jack in the Beanstalk pictured here) always beats a lil' bird.
(By the way, if the Super Bowl is, indeed, Giants versus Titans, that could be the best battle of the mascots ever. It would be like a game of Rampage!)- Adam, the early '90s fan. (7-4) I love that just picking whichever team would've won this matchup in the early '90s is one of the more effective systems on this list.
Anyway, Adam's input this week: "I've never heard of these 'Arizona' Cardinals, but I have heard of the Phoenix Cardinals. And they are just awful. The Giants have been on the downswing since their Super Bowl win, but there's no way they're as bad as the Cardinals. I'm going with the Giants." - Fatter offensive line. (6-5) The Giants weigh in nicely, at 1,576 total pounds on the offensive line, for an average well above 300 pounds per guy. Believe it or not, the Cardinals win though... by two pounds. They check in at 1,578 pounds. So this one is extraordinarily close, but it goes to the Cardinals.
A model who may or may not know football. (8-3) Karmen is picking the Giants "just because, lol!" I'm not sure what she finds so funny. That she's in second place so far this year? That I'm in last place? The Giants? I have no idea, but I'm suspicious.
Karmen, our model/expert.- Just picking the home team. (5-6) Let's roll with the Cardinals.
- "Sports Illustrated" legend Peter King. (9-2) Peter King remains in first place among my methods. He likes the Giants in a very close game, believing this will be one of those weeks when Kurt Warner gets pressured into doing a couple stupid things too many.
- My pick. (4-7) As much as I'd like not to side with the masses, I'm rolling with the Giants. I can't afford to go out on a limb right now, not with sole possession of last place on the line.
This list was published on Friday, November 21, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at