11 Picks for NFL Week 8, Colts at Titans
Published Friday, October 24, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
I'd like to apologize for the lack of lists this week... we had one of the most epic shoots we've ever done for a really cool election video for Break.com, and the 18-hour days made it hard to squeeze in time to write good 11 points lists.
But the filming is over, and today is the day for football picks.
The game of the week is Indianapolis at Tennessee. The line is Tennessee -3.5, although we're all just going to pick the game straight up.
This list was published on Friday, October 24, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, October 24, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM
I'd like to apologize for the lack of lists this week... we had one of the most epic shoots we've ever done for a really cool election video for Break.com, and the 18-hour days made it hard to squeeze in time to write good 11 points lists.
But the filming is over, and today is the day for football picks.
The game of the week is Indianapolis at Tennessee. The line is Tennessee -3.5, although we're all just going to pick the game straight up.
Accuscore. (1-6 on the season) Accuscore, running its tens of thousands of computer simulations, is easily doing the worst of any of these 11 predictive methods. Which means either (1) the NFL has gotten so unpredictable that Accuscore needs to update its model to adjust to the modern game or (2) computers are dumb.
Accuscore likes the Titans. Bad sign for Tennessee.
Anyway, this week, it's picking the Titans, by a 56 percent to 42 percent margin. Usually it leaves one percent unaccounted for, this week it's two percent. Whatever.- Former NFL star Eric Allen. (2-5) Using everything he learned as an NFL player, Allen is doing his traditional front running and going with the Titans. I'm not sure he's ever picked an underdog.
- Random number generator. (3-4) I use Random.org's coin flipper, with heads being home, tails away. This week it flipped tails, so it's going with the Colts.
- Homeless guy outside my office. (4-3) He's pulling hard for the Colts this week. "They're my team," he said, "them and the Raiders." And since the odds are against the Raiders playing in the 11 Points Game of the Week, he's got to ride his horses now.
Battle of the mascots. (5-2) Colts are strong, sturdy creatures... but I just don't see them beating a Greek god. In fact, I'm not sure that the Titans would lose any battle of the mascots in the NFL. Who's going to take them down? A dolphin? A 19th century prospector? An imaginary animal that's a hawk that lives in the ocean? The color brown?
Looks like a Titan dominates all.- Adam, the late '80s fan. (4-3) Adam says he's conflicted on this one. Indianapolis hasn't been very good for years, but after what Frank Reich and the Bills did to the Oilers in the playoffs, he just doesn't think they'll be able to recover mentally. Even Warren Moon's leadership won't be enough. He's going with the Colts.
- Fatter offensive line. (3-4) Both teams have very slim offensive lines... each team has two sub-300-pounders. Horrendous decision making by two alleged contenders. The Titans just sneak out a win, 1,527 to 1,505. (Somehow, since we did Colts-Jaguars in week 3, the Colt line has LOST six pounds. That's not the direction to go, homeys!)
- A model who may or may not know football. (5-2) This week, Karmen is going with the Titans.
- Just picking the home team. (3-4) This one is going to the Titans. I'm glad to see this method normalizing again... frankly, it should be one of the more reliable ones.
- "Sports Illustrated" legend Peter King. (6-1) This is driving me crazy. The entire reason I chose to include Peter King was so I could rip on him for being an old, out-of-touch, antiquated sportswriter... and now, seven weeks in, he's in sole possession of first place.
He's going with the Titans this week, 23-13. He even says, "You read it here first." Uh... nope. - My pick. (2-5) I've believed the Colts were on the downswing since the beginning of the season... right now they're 3-3 and are just a few bounces from that being 1-5. I'm going with the Titans.
This list was published on Friday, October 24, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at
