11 Results for My First Season of 11 NFL Pick Methods
Published Friday, February 6, 2009 at 12:01:00 PM
Back at the beginning of this NFL season I started an experiment where I'd use 11 different methods to predict one marquee game every week. Some of the methods were human experts... some were human, well, opposite of experts... some were random... some were for humor's sake.
And although 21 games is a small sample size and I didn't prove anything statistically, it does provide me a glimmer of nerdy excitement to look at our final results and see how it all shook out.
Here's the final order we finished in, from best to worst.
This list was published on Friday, February 6, 2009 at 12:01:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
Published Friday, February 6, 2009 at 12:01:00 PM
Back at the beginning of this NFL season I started an experiment where I'd use 11 different methods to predict one marquee game every week. Some of the methods were human experts... some were human, well, opposite of experts... some were random... some were for humor's sake.
And although 21 games is a small sample size and I didn't prove anything statistically, it does provide me a glimmer of nerdy excitement to look at our final results and see how it all shook out.
Here's the final order we finished in, from best to worst.
"Sports Illustrated" legend Peter King (13-8). King got 13 games right, enough to tie for first place on the list. This might be my biggest disappointment of the entire thing -- frankly, I only included him because I wanted some dinosaur journalist on here who I could use as a metaphor for how out-of-touch old school sportswriters are. And he showed up and whupped the field.
The final standings of the 2008-09 11 Points NFL picks.
He would've done better if not for a bit of a meltdown in the playoffs...but he led early in the season and kept his lead all the way through. So... um... well done, guy.- Battle of the mascots (13-8). I'm so glad this tied for first place. Pitting the mascots against each other in a real life battle proved to be a very effective way of picking games. It also provided the best Photoshops. So this one definitely gets to come back next season.
- Adam, the late '90s fan (12-9). My friend Adam loved pro sports when he was in middle school. Hasn't really cared nor watched since. So I had him use his knowledge of sports, as they were about 15-20 years ago, to make these picks. The result: Basing picks off Christian Okoye and Bubby Brister... and the state of their franchises in 1992... was one of the most effective methods on my list.
- Fatter offensive line (12-9). I like giving offensive lines credit. After all, when someone like Shaun Alexander wins an MVP award solely based off his offensive line's blocking... and then falls out of the league a few years later because the good linemen all left and he was exposed as a so-so running back... you know O-lines matter. My theory was: The larger they are the better.
And even though this method had a rough start, it eventually pulled through. In this day and age, the NFL is finding guys who weigh 350 pounds but could still beat most of us in a foot race. I believe that those guys win games. - A model who may or may not know football (12-9). I spoke with Karmen at the end of the season and she said this gig led to her paying WAY more attention than ever before to football. Which is good, since she's one of only four that finished above .500 for me this season.
- Just picking the home team (9-12*). I thought this would end up at .500, and it was close. Not counting the week of the Super Bowl, where there isn't a true home team, this method was 9-11. That feels about right. I may scrap this method for next year because it was kinda boring though.
- Accuscore (9-12). Figured the computer would do better. This, more than ever, strikes me as having to do with the unpredictability of the NFL. So, so often the team that should win on paper ends up losing. Upsets like that happen literally every weekend. But still... come on, computer.
- The homeless guy outside my office (9-12). I hope he'll want to do this again next year... although who knows if I'll still be working out of this office. (Probably not -- my company is moving pretty soon to another part of town.) I loved his picks with his strange reasoning. And he didn't do that badly.
- My pick (9-12). Eh. I had a few inspired picks where I went against the masses and got it right... but mostly, I was just floundering here. If I do this again next year I'll keep making picks... with a resolution not to do such a bad job.
- Former NFL star Eric Allen (8-13). As the season progressed, I began to develop a serious anger toward Eric Allen. He's one of ESPN.com's experts and I figured he'd use his insight as a former player and current ESPN analyst to make his picks. Wrong. Instead, he just picked the team that was favored 20 out of the 21 weeks. That's absurd. He should lose his job.
He will not be back next year. I'm picking a different ex-player... one who is willing to actually pick an underdog once in a while. I'm so glad that Allen finished in sole possession of 10th place. - Random number generator (5-16). Well, sometimes random numbers work, sometimes they don't. For whatever reason, this just failed two out of every three times. Bad random numbers I guess.
Next season I'll cut down on my random methods (since this, the model and the homeless guy were all basically "random" picks).
This list was published on Friday, February 6, 2009 at 12:01:00 PM under the category NFL Picks.
It currently has View Comments.
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It's all written by Sam Greenspan, a Midwest-born, classically-trained journalist who now tries to make a dollar out of 15 cents in Los Angeles. (It's hard to be legit and still pay the rent.)
Read more about 11 Points and Sam here.
For information about reprinting 11 Points content, or for quotes/interviews for your newspaper, magazine, website, TV program, or radio show, contact Sam via e-mail at