11 Picks for NFL Week 7, Chargers at Bills

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11 Picks for NFL Week 7, Chargers at Bills
Posted Friday, October 17, 2008 at 12:00:00 PM

Six weeks gone. I'm doing really, really bad on my picks. My decision last week to follow my gut backfired, of course.

The game we're all picking this week is San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills. The line is Buffalo -0.5, so, basically, it's a pick-em game, and we're all just going to pick the game straight up anyway.

Accuscore loves the Chargers.
Accuscore. (1-5 on the season) I guess all the curmudgeonly sportswriters are right: Computers really have no ability to accurately pick sports. After six weeks, Accuscore, and all of its advanced models, finds itself in dead last place.

This week is a pick-em game according to the Vegas line, but not according to Accuscore. In its thousands of simulations, the Chargers completely dominate, winning 62 percent of the time versus Buffalo's 37 percent. As always, Accuscore is missing one percent.
Former NFL star Eric Allen. (2-4) Allen channels all of his expertise and picks... the Chargers on the road.
Random number generator. (2-4) Using Random.org's coin flipper, I flipped one coin and got heads. Using my system of heads for home team, tails for away team, this week, it's going with the Bills.
Homeless guy outside my office. (4-2) He likes the Chargers, because, he says, he loves everything about California. And since "South Park" taught us that California is super-cool to the homeless, I think he's justified in his love.
Even Boltman could take out a slow buffalo. It'll help him stave off dysentary.
Battle of the mascots. (5-1) This one is easy. If "Oregon Trail" for the Apple IIe taught us anything, it's that bison are slow, dumb and incredibly easy to kill. And with modern technology, you don't have to curb your killing of them because you can only carry so many pounds of meat in your wagon. So I'm thinking a precise lighting bolt can easily take down a buffalo. (Even if that lightning bolt looks the former Chargers mascot, as pictured to the right.) Easy win here for the Chargers.
Adam, the late '80s fan. (3-3) Adam says this week is an easy one. San Diego is a no account team, and the Bills, behind Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Andre Reed, look like they're on pace to be in the Super Bowl yet again this year. Adam also believes that this is the year they'll break their losing streak and finally win the big one.
Fatter offensive line. (2-4) I'm a little disappointed in how unreliable this predictive method as been; I had high hopes for it. Anyway, this week, the Bills dominate. Their line weighs 1,661 pounds, versus San Diego's 1,558 pounds. The Bills should be especially proud of right tackle Langston Walker, the fattest player I've encountered in all seven weeks of this... clocking in at a healthy 366 pounds.
Karmen, our model/expert.
A model who may or may not know football. (5-1) Karmen is going with the Chargers because "it just feels right." Once again, I cannot question her logic until my record in this contest comes anywhere close to her record.
Just picking the home team. (2-4) I think the home team is valuable this week, since San Diego has to travel cross country AND play in an early game. It starts at 1:00 PM Eastern, which is 10:00 AM Pacific, meaning the Chargers guys have to wake up at the ungodly hour of, like, 7:00 AM (their time) for this. So I think this is a big advantage to the Bills.
"Sports Illustrated" legend Peter King. (5-1) Peter King is having a strong season so far. This week, he sees it being a close game with the Bills toughing it out, 23 to 20. Again, I want to doubt him and call him out of touch... but he just keeps getting these right.
My pick. (2-4) I am so, so torn on this. I think that the Chargers are a much better team than their record shows (they could easily be 5-1 without two last-second losses, one on the infamous Hoculi disaster call). And I don't have huge faith in the Bills yet. But all of the signs point to Buffalo winning this game. Still, I think the Chargers are going to make a huge push toward the top of the AFC... and this is the week it begins. I'm going with the Chargers.

Updated records next week.


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